The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is − 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of − 17% (wheat), − 5% (maize), − 15% (sorghum) and − 10% (millet) and across South Asia of − 16% (maize) and − 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

A probabilistic analysis of the future potential of evaporative cooling systems in a temperate climate

The probabilistic projections of climate change for the United Kingdom (UK Climate Impacts Programme) show a trend towards hotter and drier summers. This suggests an expected increase in cooling demand for buildings – a conflicting requirement to reducing building energy needs and related CO2 emissions. Though passive design is used to reduce thermal loads of a building, a supplementary cooling system is often necessary. For such mixed-mode strategies, indirect evaporative cooling is investigated as a low energy option in the context of a warmer and drier UK climate. Analysis of the climate projections shows an increase in wet-bulb depression; providing a good indication of the cooling potential of an evaporative cooler. Modelling a mixed-mode building at two different locations, showed such a building was capable of maintaining adequate thermal comfort in future probable climates. Comparing the control climate to the scenario climate, an increase in the median of evaporative cooling load is evident. The shift is greater for London than for Glasgow with a respective 71.6% and 3.3% increase in the median annual cooling load. The study shows evaporative cooling should continue to function as an effective low-energy cooling technique in future, warming climates.

(In)Complete acquisition of Turkish among Turkish German bilinguals in Germany and Turkey: an analysis of complex embeddings in narratives

Although most researchers recognise that the language repertoire of bilinguals canmvary, few studies have tried to address variation in bilingual competence in any detail. This study aims to take a first step towards further understanding the way in which bilingual competencies can vary at the level of syntax by comparing the use of syntactic embeddings among three different groups of Turkish�German bilinguals. The approach of the present paper is new in that different groups of bilinguals are compared with each other, and not only with monolingual speakers, as is common in most studies in the field. The analysis focuses on differences in the use of embeddings in Turkish, which are generally considered to be one of the more complex aspects of Turkish grammar. The study shows that young Turkish� German bilingual adults who were born and raised in Germany use fewer, and less complex embeddings than Turkish�German bilingual returnees who had lived in Turkey for eight years at the time of recording. The present study provides new insights in the nature of bilingual competence, as well as a new perspective on syntactic change in immigrant Turkish as spoken in Europe.

Structural and magnetic studies of Schiff base complexes of nickel(ii) nitrite: change in crystalline state, ligand rearrangement and a very rare μ-nitrito-1κO:2κN:3κO′ bridging mode

Four new nickel(II) complexes, [Ni2L2(NO2)2]·CH2Cl2·C2H5OH, 2H2O (1), [Ni2L2(DMF)2(m-NO2)]ClO4·DMF (2a), [Ni2L2(DMF)2(m-NO2)]ClO4 (2b) and [Ni3L¢2(m3-NO2)2(CH2Cl2)]n·1.5H2O (3) where HL = 2-[(3-amino-propylimino)-methyl]-phenol, H2L¢ = 2-({3-[(2-hydroxy-benzylidene)-amino]-propylimino}-methyl)-phenol and DMF = N,N-dimethylformamide, have been synthesized starting with the precursor complex [NiL2]·2H2O, nickel(II) perchlorate and sodium nitrite and characterized structurally and magnetically. The structural analyses reveal that in all the complexes, NiII ions possess a distorted octahedral geometry. Complex 1 is a dinuclear di-m2-phenoxo bridged species in which nitrite ion acts as chelating co-ligand. Complexes 2a and 2b also consist of dinuclear entities, but in these two compounds a cis-(m-nitrito-1kO:2kN) bridge is present in addition to the di-m2-phenoxo bridge. The molecular structures of 2a and 2b are equivalent; they differ only in that 2a contains an additional solvated DMF molecule. Complex 3 is formed by ligand rearrangement and is a one-dimensional polymer in which double phenoxo as well as m-nitrito-1kO:2kN bridged trinuclear units are linked through a very rare m3-nitrito-1kO:2kN:3kO¢ bridge. Analysis of variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility data indicates that there is a global weak antiferromagnetic interaction between the nickel(II) ions in four complexes, with exchange parameters J of -5.26, -11.45, -10.66 and -5.99 cm-1 for 1, 2a, 2b and 3, respectively

In situ preservation of wetland heritage: hydrological and chemical change in the burial environment of the Somerset Levels, UK.

In Situ preservation is a core strategy for the conservation and management of waterlogged remains at wetland sites. Inorganic and organic remains can, however, quickly become degraded, or lost entirely, as a result of chemical or hydrological changes. Monitoring is therefore crucial in identifying baseline data for a site, the extent of spatial and or temporal variability, and in evaluating the potential impacts of these variables on current and future In Situ preservation potential. Since August 2009, monthly monitoring has taken place at the internationally important Iron Age site of Glastonbury Lake Village in the Somerset Levels, UK. A spatial, stratigraphic, and analytical approach to the analysis of sediment horizons and monitoring of groundwater chemistry, redox potential, water table depth and soil moisture (using TDR) was used to characterize the site. Significant spatial and temporal variability has been identified, with results from water-table monitoring and some initial chemical analysis from Glastonbury presented here. It appears that during dry periods parts of this site are at risk from desiccation. Analysis of the chemical data, in addition to integrating the results from the other parameters, is ongoing, with the aim of clarifying the risk to the entire site.

TRCM: a methodology for temporal analysis of evolving concepts in Twitter

The Twitter network has been labelled the most commonly used microblogging application around today. With about 500 million estimated registered users as of June, 2012, Twitter has become a credible medium of sentiment/opinion expression. It is also a notable medium for information dissemination; including breaking news on diverse issues since it was launched in 2007. Many organisations, individuals and even government bodies follow activities on the network in order to obtain knowledge on how their audience reacts to tweets that affect them. We can use postings on Twitter (known as tweets) to analyse patterns associated with events by detecting the dynamics of the tweets. A common way of labelling a tweet is by including a number of hashtags that describe its contents. Association Rule Mining can find the likelihood of co-occurrence of hashtags. In this paper, we propose the use of temporal Association Rule Mining to detect rule dynamics, and consequently dynamics of tweets. We coined our methodology Transaction-based Rule Change Mining (TRCM). A number of patterns are identifiable in these rule dynamics including, new rules, emerging rules, unexpected rules and ?dead' rules. Also the linkage between the different types of rule dynamics is investigated experimentally in this paper.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Quantitative estimates of glacial and Holocene temperature and precipitation change in lowland Amazonian Bolivia

Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation change during the late Pleistocene and Holocene have been difficult to obtain for much of the lowland Neotropics. Using two published lacustrine pollen records and a climate-vegetation model based on the modern abundance distributions of 154 Neotropical plant families, we demonstrate how family-level counts of fossil pollen can be used to quantitatively reconstruct tropical paleoclimate and provide needed information on historic patterns of climatic change. With this family-level analysis, we show that one area of the lowland tropics, northeastern Bolivia, experienced cooling (1–3 °C) and drying (400 mm/yr), relative to present, during the late Pleistocene (50,000–12,000 calendar years before present [cal. yr B.P.]). Immediately prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 cal. yr B.P.), we observe a distinct transition from cooler temperatures and variable precipitation to a period of warmer temperatures and relative dryness that extends to the middle Holocene (5000–3000 cal. yr B.P.). This prolonged reduction in precipitation occurs against the backdrop of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, indicating that the presence of mixed savanna and dry-forest communities in northeastern Bolivia durng the LGM was not solely the result of low CO2 levels, as suggested previously, but also lower precipitation. The results of our analysis demonstrate the potential for using the distribution and abundance structure of modern Neotropical plant families to infer paleoclimate from the fossil pollen record.

Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations

We investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5%/°C and 3%/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this “rich get richer” syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold-climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM.

Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6 ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6 ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6 ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.

Choice-induced preference change in the free-choice paradigm: a critical methodological review

Choices not only reflect our preference, but they also affect our behavior. The phenomenon of choice-induced preference change has been of interest to cognitive dissonance researchers in social psychology, and more recently, it has attracted the attention of researchers in economics and neuroscience. Preference modulation after the mere act of making a choice has been repeatedly demonstrated over the last 50 years by an experimental paradigm called the “free-choice paradigm.” However, Chen and Risen (2010) pointed out a serious methodological flaw in this paradigm, arguing that evidence for choice-induced preference change is still insufficient. Despite the flaw, studies using the traditional free-choice paradigm continue to be published without addressing the criticism. Here, aiming to draw more attention to this issue, we briefly explain the methodological problem, and then describe simple simulation studies that illustrate how the free-choice paradigm produces a systematic pattern of preference change consistent with cognitive dissonance, even without any change in true preference. Our stimulation also shows how a different level of noise in each phase of the free-choice paradigm independently contributes to the magnitude of artificial preference change. Furthermore, we review ways of addressing the critique and provide a meta-analysis to show the effect size of choice-induced preference change after addressing the critique. Finally, we review and discuss, based on the results of the stimulation studies, how the criticism affects our interpretation of past findings generated from the free-choice paradigm. We conclude that the use of the conventional free-choice paradigm should be avoided in future research and the validity of past findings from studies using this paradigm should be empirically re-established. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)(journal abstract)

Cities’ low carbon plans in an ‘age of austerity’: an analysis of UK local authority actions, attitudes and responses

Background: Cities play a significant role globally in creating carbon emissions but, as centers of major population, innovation and social practice, they also offer important opportunities to tackle climate change. The new challenges faced by cities in an ‘age of austerity’ and decentralist agendas present substantial challenges for coordinated multilevel governance. Results: Based on research carried out in 2011–2012, this paper examines the attitudes and responses of sustainability and climate change officers in UK cities that have prepared low carbon and climate change plans, in the context of these challenges. Using a conceptual framework that analyses ‘awareness’, ‘analysis’ and ‘actions’ (in the context of spending cuts and a new ‘decentralized’ policy agenda) this research suggests that progress on low-carbon futures for cities continues to be fragmented, with increased funding constraints, short-termism and lack of leadership acting as key barriers to progress. Conclusion: Recent UK national policies (including localism, austerity measures and new economic incentives) have not only created further uncertainties, but also scope for cities’ local innovation through policy leverage and self-governing actions.

Analysis of tyrosine phosphorylation and phosphotyrosine-binding proteins in germinating seeds from Scots pine

Protein tyrosine phosphorylation in angiosperms has been implicated in various physiological processes, including seed development and germination. In conifers, the role of tyrosine phosphorylation and the mechanisms of its regulation are yet to be investigated. In this study, we examined the profile of protein tyrosine phosphorylation in Scots pine seeds at different stages of germination. We detected extensive protein tyrosine phosphorylation in extracts from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dormant seeds. In addition, the pattern of tyrosine phosphorylation was found to change significantly during seed germination, especially at earlier stages of post-imbibition which coincides with the initiation of cell division, and during the period of intensive elongation of hypocotyls. To better understand the molecular mechanisms of phosphotyrosine signaling, we employed affinity purification and mass spectrometry for the identification of pTyr-binding proteins from the extracts of Scots pine seedlings. Using this approach, we purified two proteins of 10 and 43 kDa, which interacted specifically with pTyr-Sepharose and were identified by mass spectrometry as P. sylvestris defensin 1 (PsDef1) and aldose 1-epimerase (EC:5.1.3.3), respectively. Additionally, we demonstrated that both endogenous and recombinant PsDef1 specifically interact with pTyr-Sepharose, but not Tyr-beads. As the affinity purification approach did not reveal the presence of proteins with known pTyr binding domains (SH2, PTB and C2), we suggest that plants may have evolved a different mode of pTyr recognition, which yet remains to be uncovered.