Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

Effect of high-hydrostatic pressure and pH on the rheological properties of gum arabic

The effect on the viscoelastic behaviour, of pressure-treating hydrated gumarabic samples (800 MPa) at different pH values (2.8, 4.2 and 8.0) was investigated, using controlled stress rheometry. The treated samples were analysed for their complex (G∗), storage (G′) and loss (G″) moduli as a function of frequency, using dynamic oscillatory testing. Significant changes in the rheologicalproperties were observed in both the pressurised gum solutions and in those previously buffered at pH 2.8. The gum, at its natural pH (4.25) and at alkaline pH (8.0), was enhanced by pressure treatment, but only for the already “good” quality gum samples. High-pressure treatment had substantial effects on the frequency-dependence of the moduli of both the pressurised and the pressurised/pH-treated solutions, with the latter being more pronounced, suggesting differing structures or changes in the overall degree of interaction of the gum systems after pressure treatment.

Trends in Austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models

Trends in the position of the DJF Austral jet have been analysed for multi-model ensemble simulations of a subset of high- and low-top models for the periods 1960-2000, 2000-2050, and 2050-2098 under the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparison with ERA-Interim, CFSR and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows that the DJF and annual mean jet positions in CMIP5 models are equatorward of reanalyses for the 1979-2006 mean. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the mean jet position in the high-top models moves 3 degrees poleward of its 1860-1900 position by 2098, compared to just over 2 degrees for the low-top models. Changes in jet position are linked to changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Compared to low-top models, the high-top models predict greater warming in the tropical upper troposphere due to increased greenhouse gases for all periods considered: up to 0.28 K/decade more in the period 2050-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Larger polar lower-stratospheric cooling is seen in high-top models: -1.64 K/decade compared to -1.40 K/decade in the period 1960-2000, mainly in response to ozone depletion, and -0.41 K/decade compared to -0.12 K/decade in the period 2050-2098, mainly in response to increases in greenhouse gases. Analysis suggests that there may be a linear relationship between the trend in jet position and meridional temperature gradient, even under strong forcing. There were no clear indications of an approach to a geometric limit on the absolute magnitude of the poleward shift by 2100.

Intracellular accumulation of high levels of gamma-aminobutyrate by Listeria monocytogenes 10403S in response to low pH: uncoupling of gamma-aminobutyrate synthesis from efflux in a chemically defined medium

It is well established that the glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) system is central to the survival of Listeria monocytogenes at low pH, both in acidic foods and within the mammalian stomach. The accepted model proposes that under acidic conditions extracellular glutamate is transported into the cell in exchange for an intracellular gamma-aminobutyrate (GABA(i)). The glutamate is then decarboxylated to GABA(i), a reaction that consumes a proton, thereby helping to prevent acidification of the cytoplasm. In this study, we show that glutamate supplementation had no influence on either growth rate at pH 5.0 or survival at pH 2.5 when L. monocytogenes 10403S was grown in a chemically defined medium (DM). In response to acidification, cells grown in DM failed to efflux GABA, even when glutamate was added to the medium. In contrast, in brain heart infusion (BHI), the same strain produced significant extracellular GABA (GABA(e)) in response to acidification. In addition, high levels of GABA(i) (>80 mM) were found in the cytoplasm in response to low pH in both growth media. Medium-swap and medium-mixing experiments revealed that the GABA efflux apparatus was nonfunctional in DM, even when glutamate was present. It was also found that the GadT2D2 antiporter/decarboxylase system was transcribed poorly in DM-grown cultures while overexpression of gadD1T1 and gadD3 occurred in response to pH 3.5. Interestingly, BHI-grown cells did not respond with upregulation of any of the GAD system genes when challenged at pH 3.5. The accumulation of GABA(i) in cells grown in DM in the absence of extracellular glutamate indicates that intracellular glutamate is the source of the GABA(i). These results demonstrate that GABA production can be uncoupled from GABA efflux, a finding that alters the way we should view the operation of bacterial GAD systems.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Evaluation of the use of high-density SNP genotyping to implement UPOV Model 2 for DUS testing in barley

Developments in high-throughput genotyping provide an opportunity to explore the application of marker technology in distinctness, uniformity and stability (DUS) testing of new varieties. We have used a large set of molecular markers to assess the feasibility of a UPOV Model 2 approach: “Calibration of threshold levels for molecular characteristics against the minimum distance in traditional characteristics”. We have examined 431 winter and spring barley varieties, with data from UK DUS trials comprising 28 characteristics, together with genotype data from 3072 SNP markers. Inter varietal distances were calculated and we found higher correlations between molecular and morphological distances than have been previously reported. When varieties were grouped by kinship, phenotypic and genotypic distances of these groups correlated well. We estimated the minimum marker numbers required and showed there was a ceiling after which the correlations do not improve. To investigate the possibility of breaking through this ceiling, we attempted genomic prediction of phenotypes from genotypes and higher correlations were achieved. We tested distinctness decisions made using either morphological or genotypic distances and found poor correspondence between each method.

A microblock ionomer in proton exchange membrane electrolysis for the production of high purity hydrogen

Proton exchange membranes (PEM’s) are currently under investigation for membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) to deliver efficient production of the high purity hydrogen needed to supply emerging clean-energy technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells. The microblock aromatic ionomer described in this work achieves high mechanical strength in an aqueous environment as a result of its designed, biphasic morphology and displays many of the qualities required in a PEM. The new ionomer membrane thus shows good proton conductivity (63 mS cm−1 at 80 °C and 100% RH), while retaining mechanical integrity under high temperature, hydrated conditions. Testing in electrolysis has shown good energy efficiency (1.67 V at 1 A cm−2 and 80 °C, corresponding to 4 kWh/Nm3 of H2), making this ionomer a potential candidate for commercial application in PEMWE.