Ecohydrological feedbacks confound peat-based climate reconstructions

Water-table reconstructions from Holocene peatlands are increasingly being used as indicators of terrestrial palaeoclimate in many regions of the world. However, the links between peatland water tables, climate, and long-term peatland development are poorly understood. Here we use a combination of high-resolution proxy climate data and a model of long-term peatland development to examine the relationship between rapid hydrological fluctuations in peatlands and climatic forcing. We show that changes in water-table depth can occur independently of climate forcing. Ecohydrological feedbacks inherent in peatland development can lead to a degree of homeostasis that partially disconnects peatland water-table behaviour from external climatic influences. We conclude by suggesting that further work needs to be done before peat-based climate reconstructions can be used to test climate models.

Development of novel methods to determine crystalline glucose content of honey based on DSC, HPLC, and viscosity measurements and their use to examine the setting propensity of honey

Crystallization must occur in honey in order to produce set or creamed honey; however, the process must occur in a controlled manner in order to obtain an acceptable product. As a consequence, reliable methods are needed to measure the crystal content of honey (φ expressed as kg crystal per kg honey), which can also be implemented with relative ease in industrial production facilities. Unfortunately, suitable methods do not currently exist. This article reports on the development of 2 independent offline methods to measure the crystal content in honey based on differential scanning calorimetry and high-performance liquid chromatography. The 2 methods gave highly consistent results on the basis of paired t-test involving 143 experimental points (P > 0.05, r**2 = 0.99). The crystal content also correlated with the relative viscosity, defined as the ratio of the viscosity of crystal containing honey to that of the same honey when all crystals are dissolved, giving the following correlation: μr = 1 + 1398.8∅**2.318. This correlation can be used to estimate the crystal content of honey in industrial production facilities. The crystal growth rate at a temperature of 14 ◦C—the normal crystallization temperature used in practice—was linear, and the growth rate also increased with the total glucose content in the honey.

Problem-based learning approaches in meteorology

Problem-Based Learning, despite recent controversies about its effectiveness, is used extensively as a teaching method throughout higher education. In meteorology, there has been little attempt to incorporate Problem-Based Learning techniques into the curriculum. Motivated by a desire to enhance the reflective engagement of students within a current field course module, this project describes the implementation of two test Problem-Based Learning activities and testing and improvement using several different and complementary means of evaluation. By the end of a 2-year program of design, implementation, testing, and reflection and re-evaluation, two robust, engaging activities have been developed that provide an enhanced and diverse learning environment in the field course. The results suggest that Problem-Based Learning techniques would be a useful addition to the meteorology curriculum and suggestions for courses and activities that may benefit from this approach are included in the conclusions.

The role of rules-based compliance systems in the new EU regulatory landscape: perspectives of institutional change and agency

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent reaction of the G20 have created a new global regulatory landscape. Within the EU, change of regulatory institutions is ongoing. The research objective of this study is to understand how institutional changes to the EU regulatory landscape may affect corresponding institutionalized operational practices within financial organizations and to understand the role of agency within this process. Our motivation is to provide insight into these changes from an operational management perspective, as well as to test Thelen and Mahoney?s (2010) modes of institutional change. Consequently, the study researched implementations of an Investment Management System with a rules-based compliance module within financial organizations. The research consulted compliance and risk managers, as well as systems experts. The study suggests that prescriptive regulations are likely to create isomorphic configurations of rules-based compliance systems, which consequently will enable the institutionalization of associated compliance practices. The study reveals the ability of some agents within financial organizations to control the impact of regulatory institutions, not directly, but through the systems and processes they adopt to meet requirements. Furthermore, the research highlights the boundaries and relationships between each mode of change as future avenues of research.

Association between serotonin 5-HT-2C receptor gene (HTR2C) polymorphisms and obesity- and mental health-related phenotypes in a large population-based cohort

OBJECTIVE: Studies have shown that common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the serotonin 5-HT-2C receptor (HTR2C) are associated with antipsychotic agent-induced weight gain and the development of behavioural and psychological symptoms. We aimed to analyse whether variation in the HTR2C is associated with obesity- and mental health-related phenotypes in a large population-based cohort. METHOD: Six tagSNPs, which capture all common genetic variation in the HTR2C gene, were genotyped in 4978 men and women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, an ongoing prospective population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom. To confirm borderline significant associations, the -759C/T SNP (rs3813929) was genotyped in the remaining 16 003 individuals from the EPIC-Norfolk study. We assessed social and psychological circumstances using the Health and Life Experiences Questionnaire. Genmod models were used to test associations between the SNPs and the outcomes. Logistic regression was performed to test for association of SNPs with obesity- and mental health- related phenotypes. RESULTS: Of the six HTR2C SNPs, only the T allele of the -759C/T SNP showed borderline significant associations with higher body mass index (BMI) (0.23 kg m(-2); (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.01-0.44); P=0.051) and increased risk of lifetime major depressive disorder (MDD) (Odds ratio (OR): 1.13 (95% CI: 1.01-1.22), P=0.02). The associations between the -759C/T and BMI and lifetime MDD were independent. As associations only achieved borderline significance, we aimed to validate our findings on the -759C/T SNP in the full EPIC-Norfolk cohort (n=20 981). Although the association with BMI remained borderline significant (beta=0.20 kg m(-2); 95% CI: 0.04-0.44, P=0.09), that with lifetime MDD (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.94-1.09, P=0.73) was not replicated. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that common HTR2C gene variants are unlikely to have a major role in obesity- and mental health-related traits in the general population.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Does orthogonalization really purge equity based property valuations of their general stock market influences?

This paper uses a recently developed nonlinear Granger causality test to determine whether linear orthogonalization really does remove general stock market influences on real estate returns to leave pure industry effects in the latter. The results suggest that there is no nonlinear relationship between the US equity-based property index returns and returns on a general stock market index, although there is evidence of nonlinear causality for the corresponding UK series.

Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen data-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum.

Pollen data from China for 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp were compiled and used to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns, using complete taxon lists where possible and a biomization procedure that entailed the assignment of 645 pollen taxa to plant functional types. A set of 658 modern pollen samples spanning all biomes and regions provided a comprehensive test for this procedure and showed convincing agreement between reconstructed biomes and present natural vegetation types, both geographically and in terms of the elevation gradients in mountain regions of north-eastern and south-western China. The 6000 14C yr bp map confirms earlier studies in showing that the forest biomes in eastern China were systematically shifted northwards and extended westwards during the mid-Holocene. Tropical rain forest occurred on mainland China at sites characterized today by either tropical seasonal or broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest. Broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest occurred further north than today, and at higher elevation sites within the modern latitudinal range of this biome. The northern limit of temperate deciduous forest was shifted c. 800 km north relative to today. The 18,000 14C yr bp map shows that steppe and even desert vegetation extended to the modern coast of eastern China at the last glacial maximum, replacing today’s temperate deciduous forest. Tropical forests were excluded from China and broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest had retreated to tropical latitudes, while taiga extended southwards to c. 43°N.

Potential-based achievement goals

Background: Self-based achievement goals use one’s own intrapersonal trajectory as a standard of evaluation, and this intrapersonal trajectory may be grounded in one’s past (past-based goals) or one’s future potential potential-based goals). Potential-based goals have been overlooked in the literature to date. Aims: The primary aim of the present research is to address this oversight within the context of the 3 x 2 achievement goal framework. Samples: The Study 1 sample was 381 U.S. undergraduates; the Study 2 sample was 310 U.S. undergraduates. Methods: In Study 1, we developed scales to assess otential-approach and potential-avoidance goals, and tested their factorial validity with exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2, we used confirmatory factor analysis to test both the separability of past-based and potential-based goals and their higher order integration within the self-based category. Results: Study 1 supported the factorial validity of the potential-approach and potential-avoidance goal scales. Study 2 supported the separability of past-based and potential-based goals, as well as their higher order integration within the self-based category. Conclusions: This research documents the utility of the proposed distinction, and paves the way for subsequent work on antecedent and consequences of potential-approach and potential-avoidance goals. It highlights the importance

Towards the computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on the geometric and network connectivity of structural MRI data

We present an intuitive geometric approach for analysing the structure and fragility of T1-weighted structural MRI scans of human brains. Apart from computing characteristics like the surface area and volume of regions of the brain that consist of highly active voxels, we also employ Network Theory in order to test how close these regions are to breaking apart. This analysis is used in an attempt to automatically classify subjects into three categories: Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls, for the CADDementia Challenge.

Assumption of knowledge and the Chinese Room in Turing test interrogation

Whilst common sense knowledge has been well researched in terms of intelligence and (in particular) artificial intelligence, specific, factual knowledge also plays a critical part in practice. When it comes to testing for intelligence, testing for factual knowledge is, in every-day life, frequently used as a front line tool. This paper presents new results which were the outcome of a series of practical Turing tests held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. The focus of this paper is on the employment of specific knowledge testing by interrogators. Of interest are prejudiced assumptions made by interrogators as to what they believe should be widely known and subsequently the conclusions drawn if an entity does or does not appear to know a particular fact known to the interrogator. The paper is not at all about the performance of machines or hidden humans but rather the strategies based on assumptions of Turing test interrogators. Full, unedited transcripts from the tests are shown for the reader as working examples. As a result, it might be possible to draw critical conclusions with regard to the nature of human concepts of intelligence, in terms of the role played by specific, factual knowledge in our understanding of intelligence, whether this is exhibited by a human or a machine. This is specifically intended as a position paper, firstly by claiming that practicalising Turing's test is a useful exercise throwing light on how we humans think, and secondly, by taking a potentially controversial stance, because some interrogators adopt a solipsist questioning style of hidden entities with a view that it is a thinking intelligent human if it thinks like them and knows what they know. The paper is aimed at opening discussion with regard to the different aspects considered.

Case study on the maintenance of a construction monitoring using USN-based data acquisition

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the adoption of emerging ubiquitous sensor network (USN) technologies for instrumentation within a variety of sustainability systems. USN is emerging as a sensing paradigm that is being newly considered by the sustainability management field as an alternative to traditional tethered monitoring systems. Researchers have been discovering that USN is an exciting technology that should not be viewed simply as a substitute for traditional tethered monitoring systems. In this study, we investigate how a movement monitoring measurement system of a complex building is developed as a research environment for USN and related decision-supportive technologies. To address the apparent danger of building movement, agent-mediated communication concepts have been designed to autonomously manage large volumes of exchanged information. In this study, we additionally detail the design of the proposed system, including its principles, data processing algorithms, system architecture, and user interface specifics. Results of the test and case study demonstrate the effectiveness of the USN-based data acquisition system for real-time monitoring of movement operations.

Standardized evaluation of algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI: The CADDementia challenge

Algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI have demonstrated high performance in the literature, but are difficult to compare as different data sets and methodology were used for evaluation. In addition, it is unclear how the algorithms would perform on previously unseen data, and thus, how they would perform in clinical practice when there is no real opportunity to adapt the algorithm to the data at hand. To address these comparability, generalizability and clinical applicability issues, we organized a grand challenge that aimed to objectively compare algorithms based on a clinically representative multi-center data set. Using clinical practice as the starting point, the goal was to reproduce the clinical diagnosis. Therefore, we evaluated algorithms for multi-class classification of three diagnostic groups: patients with probable Alzheimer's disease, patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls. The diagnosis based on clinical criteria was used as reference standard, as it was the best available reference despite its known limitations. For evaluation, a previously unseen test set was used consisting of 354 T1-weighted MRI scans with the diagnoses blinded. Fifteen research teams participated with a total of 29 algorithms. The algorithms were trained on a small training set (n = 30) and optionally on data from other sources (e.g., the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle flagship study of aging). The best performing algorithm yielded an accuracy of 63.0% and an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 78.8%. In general, the best performances were achieved using feature extraction based on voxel-based morphometry or a combination of features that included volume, cortical thickness, shape and intensity. The challenge is open for new submissions via the web-based framework: http://caddementia.grand-challenge.org.