Analysis of disputed single-parent/child and sibling relationships using 16 STR loci

This study describes the validation of short tandem repeat (STR) systems for the resolution of cases of disputed parentage where only a single parent is available for testing or where the claimed relationship of both parents is in doubt and also cases where sibship must be tested. Three separate multiplex systems the Second Generation Multiplex, Powerplex 1.2 and FFFL have been employed, giving a total of 16 STR loci. Both empirical and theoretical approaches to the validation have been adopted. Appropriate equations have been derived to calculate likelihood ratios for different relationships, incorporating a correction for subpopulation effects. An F(ST) point estimate of 1% has been applied throughout. Empirically, 101 cases of alleged father, alleged mother and child where analysed using six SLP systems and also using the three multiplex STR systems. Of the 202 relationships tested, 197 were independently resolved by both systems, providing either clear evidence of non-parentage or strong support for the relationship.

Principal-agent issues in asset acquisition: UK institutions and their investment agents

This paper explores principal‐agent issues in the stock selection processes of institutional property investors. Drawing upon an interview survey of fund managers and acquisition professionals, it focuses on the relationships between principals and external agents as they engage in property transactions. The research investigated the extent to which the presence of outcome‐based remuneration structures could lead to biased advice, overbidding and/or poor asset selection. It is concluded that institutional property buyers are aware of incentives for opportunistic behaviour by external agents, often have sufficient expertise to robustly evaluate agents’ advice and that these incentives are counter‐balanced by a number of important controls on potential opportunistic behaviour. There are strong counter‐incentives in the need for the agents to establish personal relationships and trust between themselves and institutional buyers, to generate repeat and related business and to preserve or generate a good reputation in the market.

Capturing UK real estate volitility

Volatility, or the variability of the underlying asset, is one of the key fundamental components of property derivative pricing and in the application of real option models in development analysis. There has been relatively little work on volatility in real terms of its application to property derivatives and the real options analysis. Most research on volatility stems from investment performance (Nathakumaran & Newell (1995), Brown & Matysiak 2000, Booth & Matysiak 2001). Historic standard deviation is often used as a proxy for volatility and there has been a reliance on indices, which are subject to valuation smoothing effects. Transaction prices are considered to be more volatile than the traditional standard deviations of appraisal based indices. This could lead, arguably, to inefficiencies and mis-pricing, particularly if it is also accepted that changes evolve randomly over time and where future volatility and not an ex-post measure is the key (Sing 1998). If history does not repeat, or provides an unreliable measure, then estimating model based (implied) volatility is an alternative approach (Patel & Sing 2000). This paper is the first of two that employ alternative approaches to calculating and capturing volatility in UK real estate for the purposes of applying the measure to derivative pricing and real option models. It draws on a uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 21,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. In this first paper the magnitude of historic amplification associated with asset returns by sector and geographic spread is looked at. In the subsequent paper the focus will be upon model based (implied) volatility.

Changes in race-specific virulence in pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola are Associated with a chimeric transposable element and rare deletion events in a plasmid-borne pathogenicity island

Virulence for bean and soybean is determined by effector genes in a plasmid-borne pathogenicity island (PAI) in race 7 strain 1449B of Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola. One of the effector genes, avrPphF, confers either pathogenicity, virulence, or avirulence depending on the plant host and is absent from races 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8 of this pathogen. Analysis of cosmid clones and comparison of DNA sequences showed that the absence of avrPphF from strain 1448A is due to deletion of a continuous 9.5-kb fragment. The remainder of the PAI is well conserved in strains 1448A and 1449B. The left junction of the deleted region consists of a chimeric transposable element generated from the fusion of homologs of IS1492 from Pseudomonas putida and IS1090 from Ralstonia eutropha. The borders of the deletion were conserved in 66 P. syringae pv. phaseolicola strains isolated in different countries and representing the five races lacking avrPphF. However, six strains isolated in Spain had a 10.5-kb deletion that extended 1 kb further from the right junction. The perfect conservation of the 28-nucleotide right repeat of the IS1090 homolog in the two deletion types and in the other 47 insertions of the IS1090 homolog in the 1448A genome strongly suggests that the avrPphF deletions were mediated by the activity of the chimeric mobile element. Our data strongly support a clonal origin for the races of P. syringae pv. phaseolicola lacking avrPphF.

The persistence of real estate fund performance

This paper examines the short and long-term persistence of tax-exempt real estate funds in the UK through the use of winner-loser contingency table methodology. The persistence tests are applied to a database of varying numbers of funds from a low of 16 to a high of 27 using quarterly returns over the 12 years from 1990 Q1 to 2001 Q4. The overall conclusion is that the real estate funds in the UK show little evidence of persistence in the short-term (quarterly and semi-annual data) or for data over a considerable length of time (bi-annual to six yearly intervals). In contrast, the results are better for annual data with evidence of significant performance persistence. Thus at this stage, it seems that an annual evaluation period, provides the best discrimination of the winner and loser phenomenon in the real estate market. This result is different from equity and bond studies, where it seems that the repeat winner phenomenon is stronger over shorter periods of evaluation. These results require careful interpretation, however, as the results show that when only small samples are used significant adjustments must be made to correct for small sample bias and second the conclusions are sensitive to the length of the evaluation period and specific test used. Nonetheless, it seems that persistence in performance of real estate funds in the UK does exist, at least for the annual data, and it appears to be a guide to beating the pack in the long run. Furthermore, although the evidence of persistence in performance for the overall sample of funds is limited, we have found evidence that two funds were consistent winners over this period, whereas no one fund could be said to be a consistent loser.

Minimum recovery time between reactive hyperemia stimulus in the repeated measurement of brachial flow-mediated dilatation.

The ability to undertake repeat measurements of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) within a short time of a previous measurement would be useful to improve accuracy or to repeat a failed initial procedure. Although standard methods report that a minimum of 10 min is required between measurements, there is no published data to support this. Thirty healthy volunteers had five FMD measurements performed within a 2-h period, separated by various time intervals (5, 15 and 30 min). In 19 volunteers, FMD was also performed as soon as the vessel had returned to its baseline diameter. There was no significant difference between any of the FMD measurements or parameters across the visits indicating that repeat measurements may be taken after a minimum of 5 min or as soon as the vessel has returned to its baseline diameter, which in some subjects may be less than 5 min.

Female chromosomes in cockerel ejaculates

We describe a polymerase chain reaction which amplifies part of the Eco RI repeat unit of the fowl W chromosome. The resulting 447 bp fragment enables DNA from female birds to be identified. The composition of this DNA is confirmed by a nested polymerase chain reaction which specifically amplifies a known internal 263 bp region in this fragment. Using this technique it is possible to follow the fate of female cells in male germline chimaeras. The polymerase chain reaction fragment can be traced in cells of the embryonic and hatchling gonad and in adult sperm implying that cells containing the W chromosome are capable of being processed through the avian testis.

Miniature transposable sequences are frequently mobilized in the bacterial plant pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola

Mobile genetic elements are widespread in Pseudomonas syringae, and often associate with virulence genes. Genome reannotation of the model bean pathogen P. syringae pv. phaseolicola 1448A identified seventeen types of insertion sequences and two miniature inverted-repeat transposable elements (MITEs) with a biased distribution, representing 2.8% of the chromosome, 25.8% of the 132-kb virulence plasmid and 2.7% of the 52-kb plasmid. Employing an entrapment vector containing sacB, we estimated that transposition frequency oscillated between 2.661025 and 1.161026, depending on the clone, although it was stable for each clone after consecutive transfers in culture media. Transposition frequency was similar for bacteria grown in rich or minimal media, and from cells recovered from compatible and incompatible plant hosts, indicating that growth conditions do not influence transposition in strain 1448A. Most of the entrapped insertions contained a full-length IS801 element, with the remaining insertions corresponding to sequences smaller than any transposable element identified in strain 1448A, and collectively identified as miniature sequences. From these, fragments of 229, 360 and 679-nt of the right end of IS801 ended in a consensus tetranucleotide and likely resulted from one-ended transposition of IS801. An average 0.7% of the insertions analyzed consisted of IS801 carrying a fragment of variable size from gene PSPPH_0008/PSPPH_0017, showing that IS801 can mobilize DNA in vivo. Retrospective analysis of complete plasmids and genomes of P. syringae suggests, however, that most fragments of IS801 are likely the result of reorganizations rather than one-ended transpositions, and that this element might preferentially contribute to genome flexibility by generating homologous regions of recombination. A further miniature sequence previously found to affect host range specificity and virulence, designated MITEPsy1 (100-nt), represented an average 2.4% of the total number of insertions entrapped in sacB, demonstrating for the first time the mobilization of a MITE in bacteria.

Investigating the prevalence and causes of prescribing errors in general practice: the PRACtICe Study

Aim: To determine the prevalence and nature of prescribing errors in general practice; to explore the causes, and to identify defences against error. Methods: 1) Systematic reviews; 2) Retrospective review of unique medication items prescribed over a 12 month period to a 2% sample of patients from 15 general practices in England; 3) Interviews with 34 prescribers regarding 70 potential errors; 15 root cause analyses, and six focus groups involving 46 primary health care team members Results: The study involved examination of 6,048 unique prescription items for 1,777 patients. Prescribing or monitoring errors were detected for one in eight patients, involving around one in 20 of all prescription items. The vast majority of the errors were of mild to moderate severity, with one in 550 items being associated with a severe error. The following factors were associated with increased risk of prescribing or monitoring errors: male gender, age less than 15 years or greater than 64 years, number of unique medication items prescribed, and being prescribed preparations in the following therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, infections, malignant disease and immunosuppression, musculoskeletal, eye, ENT and skin. Prescribing or monitoring errors were not associated with the grade of GP or whether prescriptions were issued as acute or repeat items. A wide range of underlying causes of error were identified relating to the prescriber, patient, the team, the working environment, the task, the computer system and the primary/secondary care interface. Many defences against error were also identified, including strategies employed by individual prescribers and primary care teams, and making best use of health information technology. Conclusion: Prescribing errors in general practices are common, although severe errors are unusual. Many factors increase the risk of error. Strategies for reducing the prevalence of error should focus on GP training, continuing professional development for GPs, clinical governance, effective use of clinical computer systems, and improving safety systems within general practices and at the interface with secondary care.

Inhibitory control in memory: evidence for negative priming in free recall

Cognitive control mechanisms—such as inhibition—decrease the likelihood that goal-directed activity is ceded to irrelevant events. Here, we use the action of auditory distraction to show how retrieval from episodic long-term memory is affected by competitor inhibition. Typically, a sequence of to-be-ignored spoken distracters drawn from the same semantic category as a list of visually-presented to-be-recalled items impairs free recall performance. In line with competitor inhibition theory (Anderson, 2003), free recall was worse for items on a probe trial if they were a repeat of distracter items presented during the previous, prime, trial (Experiment 1). This effect was only produced when the distracters were dominant members of the same category as the to-be-recalled items on the prime. For prime trials in which distracters were low-dominant members of the to-be-remembered item category or were unrelated to that category—and hence not strong competitors for retrieval—positive priming was found (Experiments 2 & 3). These results are discussed in terms of inhibitory approaches to negative priming and memory retrieval.

Variation in the sensitivity of Callosobruchus (Coleoptera: Bruchidae) acetylcholinesterase to the organophosphate insecticide malaoxon: effect of species, geographical strain and food type

BACKGROUND: Bruchid beetles, Callosobruchus species, are serious pests of economically important grain legumes; their activity in stores is often controlled by use of synthetic insecticides. Esterases are known to be involved in insecticide resistance in insects. However, there is dearth of information on esterase activity in the genus Callosobruchus. In this study we investigated the effect of species, geographical strain and food type on the variation of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) activity and its inhibition by malaoxon (malathion metabolite) using an in vitro spectrophotometric method. RESULT: AChE activity varied significantly among species and strains and also among legume type used for rearing them. Generally irrespective of species, strain or food type, the higher the AChE activity of a population, the higher its inhibition by malaoxon. C. chinensis had the highest AChE activity of the species studied and in the presence of malaoxon it had the lowest remaining AChE activity, while C. rhodesianus retained the highest activity. CONCLUSION: A firsthand knowledge of AChE activity in regional Callosobruchus in line with the prevailing food types should be of utmost importance to grain legume breeders, researchers on plant materials for bruchid control and pesticide manufacturer/applicators for a robust integrated management of these bruchids.

Survival analysis of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK

This paper explores the changing survival patterns of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK since the introduction of plant breeders’ rights in the mid-1960s. Using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric approaches, we examine the determinants of the survival of wheat variety innovations, focusing on the impacts of changes to Plant Variety Protection (PVP) regime over the last four decades. We find that the period since the introduction of the PVP regime has been characterised by the accelerated development of new varieties and increased private sector participation in the breeding of cereal crop varieties. However, the increased flow of varieties has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the longevity of innovations. These trends may have contributed to a reduction in the returns appropriated by plant breeders from protected variety innovations and may explain the decline of conventional plant breeding in the UK. It may also explain the persistent demand from the seed industry for stronger protection. The strengthening of the PVP regime in conformity with the UPOV Convention of 1991, the introduction of EU-wide protection through the Community Plant Variety Office and the introduction of royalties on farm-saved seed have had a positive effect on the longevity of protected variety innovations, but have not been adequate to offset the long term decline in survival durations.

Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe

New crop cultivars will be required for a changing climate characterised by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe. However, the uncertainty in climate predictions poses a challenge to crop scientists and breeders who have limited time and resources and must select the most appropriate traits for improvement. Modelling is a powerful tool to quantify future threats to crops and hence identify targets for improvement. We have used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate scenarios to predict impacts of heat stress and drought on winter wheat in Europe. Despite the lower summer precipitation projected for 2050s across Europe, relative yield losses from drought is predicted to be smaller in the future, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought. By contrast, the risk of heat stress around flowering will increase, potentially resulting in substantial yield losses for heat sensitive cultivars commonly grown in northern Europe.

Changes in liking for a no added salt soup as a function of exposure

Multiple exposures have been shown to increase preference for novel foods or flavours. This "mere exposure" effect is also well known anecdotally for changes in preference for tastants within foods, for example reducing sugar in tea or coffee. However, to date, this phenomenon has received little scientific attention. The present study addressed this issue in relation to changes in preference for salt within soup. Following an initial assessment of liking, familiarity and saltiness of six soups varying in salt content (0 - 337 mg NaCl/ml), thirty-seven participants, previously assessed for their preferred salt level in soup, were allocated to either an exposure group that received 20 ml soup samples with no added salt, to a group that received a 280 ml bowl of this soup, or to a control group that received 20 ml soup samples containing salt at 280mg/100g (within normal, commercial range). Soups were presented on eight occasions, at approximately daily intervals. The two groups receiving the no added salt soup showed increases in liking starting at the third exposure, and also evident in a repeat assessment following the exposures. Increases in familiarity of the no added salt soup were also evident during exposure. Rated saltiness of all soups increased as a function of exposure, so a change in saltiness perception could not account for changes in liking for just the no added salt soups. These data suggest that simple exposure to the taste of the no added salt soup was sufficient to increase liking to a level equivalent to the initially more preferred salt level.

Contingency locus in ctsR of Listeria monocytogenes Scott A: a strategy for occurrence of abundant piezotolerant isolates within clonal populations

In a recent study we demonstrated that a high-hydrostatic-pressure-tolerant isolate of Listeria monocytogenes lacks a codon in the class 3 heat shock regulator gene ctsR. This mutation in the region that encodes four consecutive glycines was directly responsible for the observed piezotolerance, increased stress resistance, and reduced virulence. The aim of the present study was to determine whether mutations in ctsR are frequently associated with piezotolerance in L. monocytogenes. Wild-type cultures of L. monocytogenes were therefore exposed to 350 MPa for 20 min, and the piezotolerance of individual surviving isolates was assessed. This rendered 33 isolates with a stable piezotolerant phenotype from a total of 84 survivors. Stable piezotolerant mutants were estimated to be present in the initial wild-type population at frequencies of >10�5. Subsequent sequencing of the ctsR gene of all stable piezotolerant isolates revealed that two-thirds of the strains (i.e., n � 21) had mutations in this gene. The majority of the mutations (16 of 21 strains) consisted of a triplet deletion in the glycine-encoding region of ctsR, identical to what was found in our previous study. Interestingly, 2 of 21 mutants contained a codon insertion in this repeat region. The remaining three stable piezotolerant strains showed a 19-bp insertion in the glycine repeat region, a 16-bp insertion downstream of the glycine repeat area (both leading to frameshifts and a truncated ctsR), and an in-frame 114-bp deletion encoding a drastically shortened carboxy terminus of CtsR. In four instances it was not possible to generate a PCR product. A piezotolerant phenotype could not be linked to mutations in ctsR in 8 of 33 isolates, indicating that other thus-far-unknown mechanisms also lead to stable piezotolerance. The present study highlights the importance of ctsR in piezotolerance and stress tolerance of L. monocytogenes, and it demonstrates that short-sequence repeat regions contribute significantly to the occurrence of a piezotolerant and stress-tolerant subpopulation within L. monocytogenes cultures, thus playing an important role in survival.