Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation.

MYOD-1 in normal colonic mucosa - role as a putative biomarker?

Background DNA methylation of promoter-associated CpG islands of certain genes may play a role in the development of colorectal cancer. The MYOD-1 gene which is a muscle differentiation gene has been showed to be significantly methylated in colorectal cancer which, is an age related event. However the role of this gene in the colonic mucosa is not understood and whether methylation occurs in subjects without colon cancer. In this study, we have determined the frequency of methylation of the MYOD-1 gene in normal colonic mucosa and investigated to see if this is associated with established colorectal cancer risk factors primarily ageing. Results We analysed colonic mucosal biopsies in 218 normal individuals and demonstrated that in most individuals promoter hypermethylation was not quantified for MYOD-1. However, promoter hypermethylation increased significantly with age (p < 0.001 using regression analysis) and this was gender independent. We also showed that gene promoter methylation increased positively with an increase in waist to hip (WHR) ratio - the latter is also a known risk factor for colon cancer development. Conclusions Our study suggests that promoter gene hypermethylation of the MYOD-1 gene increases significantly with age in normal individuals and thus may offer potential as a putative biomarker for colorectal cancer.

Statistical evaluation of the early-stage development of Jatropha energy plantations in Northeastern Mexico

A systematic evaluation of agricultural factors affecting the adaptation of the tropical oil plant Jatropha curcas L. to the semi-arid subtropical climate in Northeastern Mexico has been conducted. The factors studied include plant density and topology, as well as fungi and virus abundances. A multiple regression analysis shows that total fruit production can be well predicted by the area per plant and the total presence of fungi. Four common herbicides and a mechanical weed control measure were established at a dedicated test array and their impact on plant productivity was assessed.

Survival of freeze dried Lactobacillus plantarum in instant fruit powders and reconstituted fruit juices

The aim of this study was to investigate the survival of freeze dried Lactobacillus plantarum cells mixed with several freeze dried instant fruit powders (strawberry, pomegranate, blackcurrant and cranberry) during storage for 12 months as well as after reconstitution with water each month. Inulin and gum arabic were also added to the instant fruit powders at two levels (10% and 20% w/w of dry weight) to improve the cell survival and functional properties of the product. The best cell survival over the 12 months of storage was observed for the blackcurrant powder (almost no decrease) followed by strawberry (~ 0.3 log decrease), pomegranate (~ 0.9 log decrease), whereas the worst survival was obtained in cranberry powder (~ 4.5 logs). To explain these results multiple regression analysis was conducted with the log decrease [log10N0 month − log10N12 months] as the dependent variable and water activity, pH, citric acid, dietary fibre and total phenol as the independent variables. The results indicated that among all the examined factors, the [log10N0 month − log10N12 months] depended only on the water activity (P < 0.05). Inulin and gum arabic demonstrated a substantial protective effect on cell survival (1–1.5 log) in the case of cranberry, which was likely due to a physical interaction between the cells and the carbohydrates. After reconstituting the dried fruit powders at room temperature and measuring cell viability for up to 4 h, it was shown that in the case of strawberry juice there was no decrease, and very little in the case of pomegranate and blackcurrant juices (< 0.5 log). On the other hand, a significant decrease was observed for cranberry juice (P < 0.05), which increased as the storage time of the dried cranberry powder increased, indicating that the cells became more susceptible with prolonged storage. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the main factors influencing cell survival were water activity and pH, while citric acid, dietary fibre and total phenol did not have an effect. Furthermore, inulin and gum arabic addition did not have a significant (P > 0.05) effect upon reconstitution of the dried fruit powder. This study showed that instant juice powders are very good carriers of probiotic cells and constitute good alternatives to highly acidic fruit juices.

Performance drivers of UK unlisted property funds

An unlisted property fund is a private investment vehicle which aims to provide direct property total returns and may also employ financial leverage which will accentuate performance. They have become a far more prevalent institutional property investment conduit since the early 2000’s. Investors have been primarily attracted to them due to the ease of executing a property exposure, both domestically and internationally, and for their diversification benefits given the capital intensive nature of constructing a well diversified commercial property investment portfolio. However, despite their greater prominence there has been little academic research conducted on the performance and risks of unlisted property fund investments. This can be attributed to a paucity of available data and limited time series where it exists. In this study we have made use of a unique dataset of institutional UK unlisted non-listed property funds over the period 2003Q4 to 2011Q4, using a panel modelling framework in order to determine the key factors which impact on fund performance. The sample provided a rich set of unlisted property fund factors including market exposures, direct property characteristics and the level of financial leverage employed. The findings from the panel regression analysis show that a small number of variables are able to account for the performance of unlisted property funds. These variables should be considered by investors when assessing the risk and return of these vehicles. The impact of financial leverage upon the performance of these vehicles through the recent global financial crisis and subsequent UK commercial property market downturn was also studied. The findings indicate a significant asymmetric effect of employing debt finance within unlisted property funds.

The leptin receptor Gln223Arg polymorphism (rs1137101) mediates the postprandial lipaemic response, but only in males.

Objective: An exaggerated postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG) response is an important determinant of cardiovascular disease risk. With increased recognition of the role of leptin in systemic macronutrient metabolism, we used a candidate gene approach to examine the impact of the common leptin receptor (LEPR) Gln223Arg polymorphism (rs1137101) on postprandial lipaemia. Methods and results: Healthy adults (n ¼ 251) underwent a sequential meal postprandial investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast (t ¼ 0) and lunch (t ¼ 330 min). Fasting total- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were 9% lower in the ArgArg than GlnArg group (P < 0.04), whereas fasting TAG was 27% lower in the ArgArg than GlnGln group (P < 0.02). The magnitude of the postprandial TAG response was also significantly lower in the ArgArg compared with the GlnArg and GlnGln genotypes, with a 26% lower area under the curve (AUC) and incremental AUC in the ArgArg individuals (P � 0.023). Genotype*gender interactions were evident for fasting and postprandial TAG responses (P < 0.05), with the genotype effect only evident in males. Regression analysis indicated that the LEPR genotype and genotype*gender interactions were independent predictors of the TAG AUC, accounting for 6.3% of the variance. Our main findings were replicated in the independent LIPGENE-Cordoba postprandial cohort of metabolic syndrome subjects (n ¼ 75), with a 52% lower TAG AUC in the ArgArg than GlnGln male subjects (P ¼ 0.018). Conclusion: We report for the first time that the common LEPR Gln223Arg genotype is an important predictor of postprandial TAG in males. The mechanistic basis of these associations remains to be determined.

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed.

Greater impairment of postprandial triacylglycerol than glucose response in metabolic syndrome subjects with fasting hyperglycaemia

Abstract Objective: Studies have started to question whether a specific component or combinations of metabolic syndrome (MetS) components may be more important in relation to cardiovascular disease risk. Our aim was to examine the impact of the presence of raised fasting glucose as a MetS component on postprandial lipaemia. Methods: Men classified with the MetS underwent a sequential test meal investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast (t=0 min) and lunch (t=330 min). Lipids, glucose and insulin were measured in the fasting and postprandial samples. Results: MetS subjects with 3 or 4 components were subdivided into those without (n=34) and with (n=23) fasting hyperglycaemia (≥ 5.6 mmol/l), irrespective of the combination of components. Fasting lipids and insulin were similar in the two groups, with glucose significantly higher in the men with glucose as a MetS component (P<0.001). Following the test meals, there was a higher maximum concentration (maxC), area under the curve (AUC) and incremental AUC (P≤0.016) for the postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG) response in men with fasting hyperglycaemia. Greater glucose AUC (P<0.001) and insulin maxC (P=0.010) was also observed in these individuals after the test meals. Multivariate regression analysis revealed fasting glucose to be an important predictor of the postprandial TAG and glucose response. Conclusion: Our data analysis has revealed a greater impairment of postprandial TAG than glucose response in MetS subjects with raised fasting glucose. The worsening of postprandial lipaemic control may contribute to the greater CVD risk reported in individuals with MetS component combinations which include hyperglycaemia.

Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multimodel mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISSPUCCINI)and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23Wm−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08Wm−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05Wm−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05Wm−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1Wm−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

Individual differences in mental control predict involuntary musical imagery

The experience of earworms, a type of involuntary musical imagery, may reflect a systematic failure in mental control. This study focused on how individual differences in each of two factors, schizotypy, or “openness to experience”, and thought suppression might relate to the appearance of the involuntary musical image (earworm). Schizotypy, was measured by Raine’s schizotypal personality questionnaire (SPQ; Raine, 1991) and thought suppression was measured by the White Bear Suppression Inventory (WBSI; Wegner & Zanakos, 1994). Each was found to contribute independently to the overall experience of involuntary musical imagery. Schizotypy was correlated with the length and disruptiveness of earworms, the difficulty with which they were dismissed and the worry they caused, but was not correlated with the frequency of such intrusive imagery. In turn, schizotypy was predicted by suppression and intrusion components of WBSI. The WBSI is associated with the length, disruptiveness, difficulty dismissing and interference but not with the worry caused or the frequency of earworms. The assumption of “ownership” of earworms was also found to affect the extent to which the earworms were considered worrying. Multiple regression analysis showed that both schizotypy and the WBSI predicted the difficulty with which unwanted musical images were dismissed, but that the WBSI accounted for additional variance on top of that accounted for by schizotypy. Finally we consider how earworm management might relate to wider cognitive processes.

Business level strategy and performance: the moderating effects of environment and structure

Purpose – This study aims to examine the moderating effects of external environment and organisational structure in the relationship between business-level strategy and organisational performance. Design/methodology/approach – The focus of the study is on manufacturing firms in the UK belonging to the electrical and mechanical engineering sectors, and respondents were CEOs. Both objective and subjective measures were used to assess performance. Non-response bias was assessed statistically and appropriate measures taken to minimise the impact of common method variance (CMV). Findings – The results indicate that environmental dynamism and hostility act as moderators in the relationship between business-level strategy and relative competitive performance. In low-hostility environments a cost-leadership strategy and in high-hostility environments a differentiation strategy lead to better performance compared with competitors. In highly dynamic environments a cost-leadership strategy and in low dynamism environments a differentiation strategy are more helpful in improving financial performance. Organisational structure moderates the relationship of both the strategic types with ROS. However, in the case of ROA, the moderating effect of structure was found only in its relationship with cost-leadership strategy. A mechanistic structure is helpful in improving the financial performance of organisations adopting either a cost-leadership or a differentiation strategy. Originality/value – Unlike many other empirical studies, the study makes an important contribution to the literature by examining the moderating effects of both environment and structure on the relationship between business-level strategy and performance in a detailed manner, using moderated regression analysis.

Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors

We introduce a novel technique in which linear regression analysis is applied to clusters of tracked cyclones to statistically assess the factors controlling cyclone development. We illustrate this technique by evaluating the differences between cyclones forming in the west and east North Atlantic (herein termed west and east Atlantic cyclones). Enhanced cyclone intensity 2 days after genesis is found to be associated with deeper upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclone center at the genesis time in both west and east Atlantic cyclones. However, whilst west Atlantic cyclones are also enhanced by the presence of strong fronts, east Atlantic cyclones are not. Instead, east Atlantic cyclones exhibit an enhancement when diabatically generated midlevel potential vorticity is present (with the enhancement being of approximately equal magnitude to that associated with the potential vorticity in the upper-level trough). This is consistent with the paradigm of latent heat release in the warm conveyor belt region playing an important role in the development of east Atlantic cyclones.

The politics of temporary work deregulation in Europe: solving the French puzzle

Temporary work has expanded in the last three decades with adverse implications for inequalities. Because temporary workers are a constituency that is unlikely to impose political costs, governments often choose to reduce temporary work regulations. While most European countries have indeed implemented such reforms, France went in the opposite direction, despite having both rigid labour markets and high unemployment. My argument to solve this puzzle is that where replaceability is high, workers in permanent and temporary contracts have overlapping interests, and governments choose to regulate temporary work to protect permanent workers. In turn, replaceability is higher where permanent workers’ skills are general and wage coordination is low. Logistic regression analysis of the determinants of replaceability — and how this affects governments’ reforms of temporary work regulations — supports my argument. Process tracing of French reforms also confirm that the left has tightened temporary work regulations to compensate for the high replaceability.