Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

The effect of the magnetic field of the secondary star in dwarf novae

We investigate the effect of a secondary star magnetic field on the accretion disc dynamics of dwarf novae. Simulations have been carried out with a particle code and a dipolar magnetic field structure. The magnetic field acts to remove angular momentum from the disc material, increasing the inward mass flow. This makes the accretion disc more centrally condensed, causing a reduction in the recurrence time for dwarf nova outbursts. We have produced Doppler tomograms and light curves which may be compared with observations. These tomograms are significantly different from those produced in the absence of a magnetic field on the secondary. We derive an upper limit to the magnetic moment of the secondary star in UGem of mu_2<2x10^32 A m^2. The magnetic truncation of the accretion disc produces resonance phenomena similar to those seen in the superoutbursts of SUUMa systems. While these have not been observed for systems like UGem, observations of the SUUMa systems provide us with a useful diagnostic of the disc-field interaction. We are able to place an upper limit on the magnetic moment of the secondary in ZCha of mu_2<1x10^30 A m^2.

The effect of proteolysis on the induction of cell death by monomeric alpha-lactalbumin.

α-Lactalbumin (α-la) is a major whey protein found in milk. Previous data suggested that α-la has antiproliferative effects in human adenocarcinoma cell lines such as Caco-2 and HT-29. However, the cell death inducing α-la was not a naturally occurring monomer but either a multimeric variant or an α-la:oleic acid complex (HAMLET/BAMLET). Proteolysis showed that both human and bovine α-la are susceptible to digestion. ELISA assays assessing cell death with the native undigested α-la fractions showed that undigested protein fractions did have a significant cell death effect on CaCo-2 cells. Bovine α-la was also more effective than human α-la. A reduction in activity corresponded with lower concentrations of the protein and partial digestion and fragmentation of the protein using trypsin and pepsin. This suggests that the tertiary structure is vital for the apoptotic effect.

The global effect of follicle-stimulating hormone and tumour necrosis factor α on gene expression in cultured bovine ovarian granulosa cells

Background Oocytes mature in ovarian follicles surrounded by granulosa cells. During follicle growth, granulosa cells replicate and secrete hormones, particularly steroids close to ovulation. However, most follicles cease growing and undergo atresia or regression instead of ovulating. To investigate the effects of stimulatory (follicle-stimulating hormone; FSH) and inhibitory (tumour necrosis factor alpha; TNFα) factors on the granulosa cell transcriptome, bovine ovaries were obtained from a local abattoir and pools of granulosa cells were cultured in vitro for six days under defined serum-free conditions with treatments present on days 3–6. Initially dose–response experiments (n = 4) were performed to determine the optimal concentrations of FSH (0.33 ng/ml) and TNFα (10 ng/ml) to be used for the microarray experiments. For array experiments cells were cultured under control conditions, with FSH, with TNFα, or with FSH plus TNFα (n = 4 per group) and RNA was harvested for microarray analyses. Results Statistical analysis showed primary clustering of the arrays into two groups, control/FSH and TNFα/TNFα plus FSH. The effect of TNFα on gene expression dominated that of FSH, with substantially more genes differentially regulated, and the pathways and genes regulated by TNFα being similar to those of FSH plus TNFα treatment. TNFα treatment reduced the endocrine activity of granulosa cells with reductions in expression of FST, INHA, INBA and AMH. The top-ranked canonical pathways and GO biological terms for the TNFα treatments included antigen presentation, inflammatory response and other pathways indicative of innate immune function and fibrosis. The two most significant networks also reflect this, containing molecules which are present in the canonical pathways of hepatic fibrosis/hepatic stellate cell activation and transforming growth factor β signalling, and these were up regulated. Upstream regulator analyses also predicted TNF, interferons γ and β1 and interleukin 1β. Conclusions In vitro, the transcriptome of granulosa cells responded minimally to FSH compared with the response to TNFα. The response to TNFα indicated an active process akin to tissue remodelling as would occur upon atresia. Additionally there was reduction in endocrine function and induction of an inflammatory response to TNFα that displays features similar to immune cells.

The effect of adding stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) haylage to a total mixed ration on performance and rumen function of lactating dairy cows

In vitro studies found that inclusion of dried stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) at 100 mg/g dry matter (DM) increased the pH of a rumen fluid inoculated fermentation buffer by 30% and the effect was persistent for 7 days. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of adding stinging nettle haylage to a total mixed ration on feed intake, eating and rumination activity, rumen pH, milk yield, and milk composition of lactating dairy cows. Six lactating Holstein-Friesian cows were used in a replicated 3 × 3 Latin Square design experiment with 3 treatments and 3 week periods. Treatments were a control (C) high-starch (311 g/kg DM) total mixed ration diet and two treatment diets containing 50 (N5) and 100 (N10) g nettle haylage (DM/kg) as a replacement for ryegrass silage (Lolium perenne). There was an increase (linear, P < 0.010) in the proportion of large particles and a reduction in medium (linear, P = 0.045) and fine particles (linear, P = 0.026) in the diet offered with increasing nettle inclusion. A numerical decrease (linear, P = 0.106) in DM intake (DMI) was observed as nettle inclusion in the diet increased. Milk yield averaged 20.3 kg/day and was not affected by diet. There was a decrease (quadratic, P = 0.01) in the time animals spent ruminating as nettle inclusion in the diet increased, in spite of an increase in the number of boli produced daily for the N5 diet (quadratic, P = 0.031). Animals fed the N10 diet spent less time with a rumen pH below 5.5 (P < 0.05) than cows fed the N5 diet. Averaged over an 8.5 h sampling period, there were no changes in the concentration or proportions of acetate or propionate in the rumen, but feeding nettle haylage reduced the concentrations of n-butyrate (quadratic, P < 0.001), i-butyrate (linear, P < 0.009) and n-caproate (linear, P < 0.003). Milk and fat and protein corrected milk yield were not affected when nettles replaced ryegrass silage in the diet of lactating dairy cows, despite a numerical reduction in feed intake. Rumination activity was reduced by the addition of nettle haylage to the diet, which may reflect differences in fibre structure between the nettle haylage and ryegrass silage fed. Changes observed in rumen pH suggest potential benefits of feeding nettle haylage for reducing rumen acidosis. However, the extent to which these effects were due to the fermentability and structure of the nettle haylage compared to the ryegrass silage fed, or a bioactive component of the nettles, is not certain

Effect of inclusion of lactulose and Lactobacillus plantarum on the intestinal environment and performance of piglets at weaning

The prebiotic lactulose, a probiotic strain of Lactobacillus plantarum (L. plantarum) and a synbiotic combination of these two agents were evaluated as growth promoters in 25–39-day old commercial weaning pigs. Ninety-six weaning pigs were allocated into 32 pens, taking initial weight into account, and distributed into four groups as follows: a control diet (CTR), the same diet supplemented daily with L. plantarum (109 CFU/mL sprayed on top; 20 mL/pig) (LPN); 10 g/kg lactulose (LAC) or a combination of both treatments (SYN). At day 14, eight piglets from each group were euthanized and proximal colon digesta was sampled for luminal pH, short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) and lactic acid concentrations. Deoxyribonucleic acid was extracted from colonic digesta and the microbial community was profiled by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (T-RFLP) and qPCR. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and acute-phase proteins (Pig-MAP) were measured. Lactulose treatment (LAC) improved feed intake (P<0.05), average daily gain (P<0.01), feed:gain ratio (P<0.05) and reduced BUN (P<0.01). Both, LAC and LPN treatment, decreased the Enterobacteriaceae:Lactobacillus spp. ratio in the colonic luminal contents (P<0.05). Moreover LPN treatment promoted a decrease in the percentage of branched fatty acids (P<0.01) suggesting a reduction in proteolytic microbial activity. Microbial profiling of colonic luminal contents by T-RFLP revealed changes in some microbial species. Terminal restriction fragments (TRFs) compatible with Bifidobacterium thermoacidophilum were more frequently detected in experimental diets compared to CTR (P<0.05). Pigs receiving SYN diet demonstrated the combined positive effects of individual LAC and LPN treatment although we were not able to show a specific increase in the probiotic strain with the inclusion of lactulose. Collectively, these data suggest the combination of lactulose and L. plantarum acts as a complementary synbiotic, but not as a synergistic combination.

Differential effect of beetroot bread on postprandial DBP according to Glu298Asp polymorphism in the eNOS gene: a pilot study.

Our objective was to investigate whether the presence of Glu298Asp polymorphism in the endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) gene differentially affects the postprandial blood pressure response to dietary nitrate-rich beetroot bread. A randomised, single-blind, controlled, crossover acute pilot study was performed in 14 healthy men (mean age: 34±9 years) who were retrospectively genotyped for Glu298Asp polymorphism (7GG; T carriers 7). Volunteers were randomised to receive 200 g beetroot-enriched bread (1.1 mmol nitrate) or control bread (no beetroot; 0.01 mmol nitrate) on two separate occasions 10 days apart. Baseline and incremental area under the curve of blood pressure and NOx (nitrate/nitrite) were measured for a 6-h postprandial period. A treatment × genotype interaction was observed for diastolic blood pressure (P<0.02), which was significantly lower in T carriers (P<0.01) after consumption of beetroot bread compared with control bread. No significant differences were observed in the GG group. The beneficial diastolic blood pressure reduction was observed only in the T carriers of the Glu298Asp polymorphism in the eNOS gene after consumption of nitrate-rich beetroot bread. These data require confirmation in a larger population group.

Effect of "Pollutants" on the functionality of breathable roofing membranes in a bat roost

The performance of breathable roofing membranes (BRM’s) in buildings where bats roost have been investigated using experimental measurements and numerical simulations. Measurement techniques as outlined in BS EN ISO 12572 of membranes from manufacturers in its pure state and those that have been contaminated with bat urine, faeces and natural oils transmitted via fur because they were found in bat roost have been tested for their permeability functions. The findings from this shows that there are significant differences between the functionality of the pure samples compared to the contaminated samples, with an average of about 20-30% reduction in functionality. This paper integrates modelling techniques using a heat, air and mass software with a simulink interface on a Matlab platform to investigate the moisture transfer properties of the BRMs. The simulation results demonstrate high level of condensation formation when the BRM is contaminated as compared to when it is not.

Global radiative and climate effect of the water vapour continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

Recent laboratory measurements show that absorption by the water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows may be about an order of magnitude higher than assumed in many radiation codes. The radiative impact of the continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths is examined for the present day and for a possible future warmer climate (with a global-mean total column water increase of 33%). The calculations use a continuum model frequently used in climate models (‘CKD’) and a continuum model where absorption is enhanced at wavelengths greater than 1 µm based on recent measurements (‘CAVIAR’). The continuum predominantly changes the partitioning between solar radiation absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere; changes in top-of-atmosphere net irradiances are smaller. The global-mean clear-sky atmospheric absorption is enhanced by 1.5 W m−2 (about 2%) and 2.8 W m−2 (about 3.5%) for CKD and CAVIAR respectively, relative to a hypothetical no-continuum case, with all-sky enhancements about 80% of these values. The continuum is, in relative terms, more important for radiation budget changes between the present day and a possible future climate. Relative to the no-continuum case, the increase in global-mean clear-sky absorption is 8% higher using CKD and almost 20% higher using CAVIAR; all-sky enhancements are about half these values. The effect of the continuum is estimated for the solar component of the water vapour feedback, the reduction in downward surface irradiance and precipitation change in a warmer world. For CKD and CAVIAR respectively, and relative to the no-continuum case, the solar component of the water vapour feedback is enhanced by about 4 and 9%, the change in clear-sky downward surface irradiance is 7 and 18% more negative, and the global-mean precipitation response decreases by 1 and 4%. There is a continued need for improved continuum measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures and at wavelengths below 2 µm.

The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model

The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.

Effect of high pressure homogenisation and heat treatment on physical properties and stability of almond and hazelnut milks

The effect of high pressure homogenisation (HPH) and heat treatments on physicochemical properties and physical stability of almond and hazelnut milks was studied. Vegetable milks were obtained and homogenised by applying 62, 103 and 172 MPa (MF1, MF2 and MF3, respectively). Untreated and MF3 samples were also submitted to two different heat treatments (85 °C/30 min (LH) or 121 °C/15 min (HH)). Physical and structural properties of the products were greatly affected by heat treatments and HPH. In almond milk, homogenised samples showed a significant reduction in particle size, which turned from bimodal and polydisperse to monodisperse distributions. Particle surface charge, clarity and Whiteness Index were increased and physical stability of samples was improved, without affecting either viscosity or protein stability. Hazelnut beverages showed similar trends, but HPH notably increased their viscosity while change their rheological behaviour, which suggested changes in protein conformation. HH treatments caused an increment of particle size due to the formation oil droplet-protein body clusters, associated with protein denaturation. Samples submitted to the combined treatment MF3 and LH showed the greatest stability.

Farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC) in Ghana and its effects on poverty reduction

The study examined the contribution of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC), which is a cocoa production-enhancing government policy, to reducing poverty and raising the living standards of cocoa farmers in Ghana. One hundred and fifty (150) cocoa farmers were randomly selected from five communities in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai district of the Western Region of Ghana and interviewed using structured questionnaires. Just over half of the farmers (53%) perceived the CODAPEC programme as being effective in controlling pests and diseases, whilst 56.6% felt that their yields and hence livelihoods had improved. In some cases pesticides or fungicides were applied later in the season than recommended and this had a detrimental effect on yields. To determine the level of poverty amongst farmers, annual household consumption expenditure was used as a proxy indicator. The study found that 4.7% of cocoa farmers were extremely poor having a total annual household consumption expenditure of less than GH¢ 623.10 ($310.00) while 8.0% were poor with less than GH¢ 801.62 ($398.81). An amount of money ranging from GH¢ 20.00 ($9.95) to GH¢ 89.04 ($44.29) per annum was needed to lift the 4.7% of cocoa farmers out of extreme poverty, which could be achieved through modest increases in productivity. The study highlighted how agricultural intervention programmes, such as CODAPEC, have the potential to contribute to improved farmer livelihoods.

The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.