Complementarity of neutron reflectometry and ellipsometry for the study of atmospheric reactions at the air–water interface

The combined application of neutron reflectometry (NR) and ellipsometry to determine the oxidation kinetics of organic monolayers at the air–water interface is described for the first time. This advance was possible thanks to a new miniaturised reaction chamber that is compatible with the two techniques and has controlled gas delivery. The rate coefficient for the oxidation of methyl oleate monolayers by gas-phase O3 determined using NR is (5.4 ± 0.6) × 10−10 cm2 per molecule per s, which is consistent with the value reported in the literature but is now better constrained. This highlights the potential for the investigation of faster atmospheric reactions in future studies. The rate coefficient determined using ellipsometry is (5.0 ± 0.9) × 10−10 cm2 per molecule per s, which indicates the potential of this more economical, laboratory-based technique to be employed in parallel with NR. In this case, temporal fluctuations in the optical signal are attributed to the mobility of islands of reaction products. We outline how such information may provide critical missing information in the identification of transient reaction products in a range of atmospheric surface reactions in the future.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.