Variance estimation for systematic sampling from deliberately ordered populations

The systematic sampling (SYS) design (Madow and Madow, 1944) is widely used by statistical offices due to its simplicity and efficiency (e.g., Iachan, 1982). But it suffers from a serious defect, namely, that it is impossible to unbiasedly estimate the sampling variance (Iachan, 1982) and usual variance estimators (Yates and Grundy, 1953) are inadequate and can overestimate the variance significantly (Särndal et al., 1992). We propose a novel variance estimator which is less biased and that can be implemented with any given population order. We will justify this estimator theoretically and with a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Variance estimation with Chao's sampling scheme

We show that the Hájek (Ann. Math Statist. (1964) 1491) variance estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator when the Chao sampling scheme (Chao, Biometrika 69 (1982) 653) is implemented. This estimator is simple and can be implemented with any statistical packages. We consider a numerical and an analytic method to show that this estimator can be used. A series of simulations supports our findings.

Megnin re-analysed: the case of the newborn baby girl, Paris, 1878

This paper analyses acarological evidence from a 130-year-old forensic investigation. It was the first case in forensic acarology, i.e., the first case where mites provided substantial information to estimate the post-mortem interval (PMI). In 1878, the mites found in the mummified body of a newborn baby girl in Paris, France, were studied by acarologist and forensic entomologist Jean Pierre M,gnin. M,gnin estimated around 2.4 million mites in the skull and identified them as Tyroglyphus longior (Gervais), a junior synonym of Tyrophagus longior. He suggested that the arrival of these mites at the corpse would have occurred by phoresy on carrier insects, roughly 5 months before the autopsy. There is no doubt about the identification of the mites, M,gnin was a highly respected acarologist. However, two main factors affecting the biology of Tyrophagus mites were not included in the original analysis. First, M,gnin stated that the mites were phoretic. However, he probably did not have access to information about the natural history of the species, because as a rule Tyrophagus mites are non-phoretic. Considering the omnipresence of Tyrophagus mites in soil, most likely the mites will have arrived almost immediately after death. Second, temperature was not taken into account during the estimations of the mite population growth rate. The new analysis is based on current knowledge of Tyrophagus biology and includes temperature, estimated following a handful of weather reports of the years 1877 and 1878. The new projections indicate that non-phoretic mites may have colonised the body just after death and the colony would have built up over 8 months, contrary to the 5 months proposed by M,gnin. This new lapse of time agrees with the PMI proposed by Brouardel: on 15 January 1878 he postulated the death of the newborn to have occurred some 8 months before the autopsy.

ONeSAMP: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, ONeSAMP that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. ONeSAMP requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. ONeSAMP provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of ONeSAMP with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.

Adjusted jackknife for imputation under unequal probability sampling without replacement

Imputation is commonly used to compensate for item non-response in sample surveys. If we treat the imputed values as if they are true values, and then compute the variance estimates by using standard methods, such as the jackknife, we can seriously underestimate the true variances. We propose a modified jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design in the presence of imputation and non-negligible sampling fraction. Mean, ratio and random-imputation methods will be considered. The practical advantage of the method proposed is its breadth of applicability.

Detection of unusual mutation within the VP1 region of different re-isolates of poliovirus Sabin vaccine

In the present study, a genomic analysis of full VP1 sequence region of 15 clinical re-isolates (14 healthy vaccinees and one bone marrow tumor patient) was conducted, aiming to the identification of mutations and to the assessment of their impact on virus fitness, providing also insights relevant with the natural evolution of Sabin strains. Clinical re-isolates were analyzed by RT-PCR, sequencing and computational analysis. Some re-isolates were characterized by an unusual mutational pattern in which non-synonymous mutations outnumbered the synonymous ones. Furthermore, the majority of amino-acid substitutions were located in the capsid exterior, specifically in N-Ags, near N-Ags and in the north rim of the canyon. Also mutations, which are well-known determinants of attenuation, were identified. The results of this study propose that some re-isolates are characterized by an evolutionary pattern in which non-synonymous mutations with a direct phenotypic impact on viral fitness are fixed in viral genomes, in spite of synonymous ones with no phenotypic impact on viral fitness. Results of the present retrospective characterization of Sabin clinical re-isolates, based on the full VP1 sequence, suggest that vaccine-derived viruses may make their way through narrow breaches and may evolve into transmissible pathogens even in adequately immunized populations. For this reason increased poliovirus laboratory surveillance should be permanent and full VP1 sequence analysis should be conducted even in isolates originating from healthy vaccinees.

Using phylogeny to investigate the origins of the Cape flora: the importance of taxonomic, gene and genome sampling strategies

Phylogenetic methods hold great promise for the reconstruction of the transition from precursor to modern flora and the identification of underlying factors which drive the process. The phylogenetic methods presently used to address the question of the origin of the Cape flora of South Africa are considered here. The sampling requirements of each of these methods, which include dating of diversifications using calibrated molecular trees, sister pair comparisons, lineage through time plots and biogeographical optimizations are reviewed. Sampling of genes, genomes and species are considered. Although increased higher-level studies and increased sampling are required for robust interpretation, it is clear that much progress is already made. It is argued that despite the remarkable richness of the flora, the Cape flora is a valuable model system to demonstrate the utility of phylogenetic methods in determining the history of a modern flora.

Low genetic diversity in a marine nature reserve: re-evaluating diversity criteria in reserve design

Little consideration has been given to the genetic composition of populations associated with marine reserves, as reserve designation is generally to protect specific species, communities or habitats. Nevertheless, it is important to conserve genetic diversity since it provides the raw material for the maintenance of species diversity over longer, evolutionary time-scales and may also confer the basis for adaptation to environmental change. Many current marine reserves are small in size and isolated to some degree (e.g. sea loughs and offshore islands). While such features enable easier management, they may have important implications for the genetic structure of protected populations, the ability of populations to recover from local catastrophes and the potential for marine reserves to act as sources of propagules for surrounding areas. Here, we present a case study demonstrating genetic differentiation, isolation, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity in populations of the dogwhelk Nucella lapillus in Lough Hyne Marine Nature Reserve (an isolated sea lough in southern Ireland), compared with populations on the local adjacent open coast and populations in England, Wales and France. Our study demonstrates that this sea lough is isolated from open coast populations, and highlights that there may be long-term genetic consequences of selecting reserves on the basis of isolation and ease of protection.

Comparison of survival rates of captive-reared and wild-bred Mauritius kestrels (falco punctatus) in a re-introduced population

Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ultrafast excited state dynamics controlling photochemical isomerization of N-methyl-4-[trans-2-(4-pyridyl)ethenyl]pyridinium coordinated to a {Re-1(CO)(3)(2,2 '-bipyridine)} chromophore

Two Multifunctional photoactive complexes [Re(Cl)(CO)(3)-(MeDpe(+))(2)](2+) and [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) (MeDpe(+) = N-methyl-4-[trans-2-(4-pyridyl)ethenyl]pyridinium, bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) were synthesized. characterized. and their redox and photonic properties were investigated by cyclic voltammetry: ultraviolet-visible-infrared (UV/Vis/IR) spectroelectrochemistry, stationary UV/Vis and resonance Raman spectroscopy; photolysis; picosecond time-resolved absorption spectroscopy in the visible and infrared regions: and time-resolved resonance Raman spectroscopy. The first reduction step of either complex Occurs at about -1.1 V versus Fc/Fc(+) and is localized at MeDpe(+). Reduction alone does not induce a trans -> cis isomerization of MeDpe(+). [Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(MeDPe(+))(2)](2+) is photostable, while [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) and free MeDpe(+) isomerize under near-UV irradiation. The lowest excited state of [Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(MeDPe(+))(2)](2+) has been identified as the Re(Cl)(CO)(3) -> MeDpe(+) (MLCT)-M-3 (MLCT = metal-to-ligand charge transfer), decaying directly to the ground state with lifetimes of approximate to 42 (73%) and approximate to 430ps (27%). Optical excitation of [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) leads to population of Re(CO)(3) -> MeDpe(+) and Re(CO)(3) -> bpy (MLCT)-M-3 states, from which a MeDpe(+) localized intraligand 3 pi pi* excited state ((IL)-I-3) is populated with lifetimes of approximate to 0.6 and approximate to 10 ps, respectively. The 3IL state undergoes a approximate to 21 ps internal rotation, which eventually produces the cis isomer on a much longer timescale. The different excited-state behavior of the two complexes and the absence of thermodynamically favorable interligand electron transfer in excited [Re(MeDpe(+))(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) reflect the fine energetic balance between excited states of different orbital origin, which can be tuned by subtle Structural variations. The complex [Re(MeDpe+)(CO)(3)(bpy)](2+) emerges as a prototypical, multifunctional species with complementary redox and photonic behavior.

Facile photoinduced charge separation through a cyanoacetylide bridge in a heterobimetallic Fe(II)-Re(I) complex

Photoinduced Fe-to-bpy charge transfer in [{Cp(dppe)Fe}-(mu-C CC N){Re(CO)(3)(bpy)}]PF6 has been observed by ps-TRIR spectroscopy, supported by UV-Vis/IR spectroelectrochemistry and DFT calculations.