How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

FunFOLDQA: a quality assessment tool for protein-ligand binding site residue predictions

The estimation of prediction quality is important because without quality measures, it is difficult to determine the usefulness of a prediction. Currently, methods for ligand binding site residue predictions are assessed in the function prediction category of the biennial Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment, utilizing the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and Binding-site Distance Test (BDT) metrics. However, the assessment of ligand binding site predictions using such metrics requires the availability of solved structures with bound ligands. Thus, we have developed a ligand binding site quality assessment tool, FunFOLDQA, which utilizes protein feature analysis to predict ligand binding site quality prior to the experimental solution of the protein structures and their ligand interactions. The FunFOLDQA feature scores were combined using: simple linear combinations, multiple linear regression and a neural network. The neural network produced significantly better results for correlations to both the MCC and BDT scores, according to Kendall’s τ, Spearman’s ρ and Pearson’s r correlation coefficients, when tested on both the CASP8 and CASP9 datasets. The neural network also produced the largest Area Under the Curve score (AUC) when Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis was undertaken for the CASP8 dataset. Furthermore, the FunFOLDQA algorithm incorporating the neural network, is shown to add value to FunFOLD, when both methods are employed in combination. This results in a statistically significant improvement over all of the best server methods, the FunFOLD method (6.43%), and one of the top manual groups (FN293) tested on the CASP8 dataset. The FunFOLDQA method was also found to be competitive with the top server methods when tested on the CASP9 dataset. To the best of our knowledge, FunFOLDQA is the first attempt to develop a method that can be used to assess ligand binding site prediction quality, in the absence of experimental data.

Pathogenic LRRK2 mutations do not alter gene expression in cell model systems or human brain tissue

Point mutations in LRRK2 cause autosomal dominant Parkinson's disease. Despite extensive efforts to determine the mechanism of cell death in patients with LRRK2 mutations, the aetiology of LRRK2 PD is not well understood. To examine possible alterations in gene expression linked to the presence of LRRK2 mutations, we carried out a case versus control analysis of global gene expression in three systems: fibroblasts isolated from LRRK2 mutation carriers and healthy, non-mutation carrying controls; brain tissue from G2019S mutation carriers and controls; and HEK293 inducible LRRK2 wild type and mutant cell lines. No significant alteration in gene expression was found in these systems following correction for multiple testing. These data suggest that any alterations in basal gene expression in fibroblasts or cell lines containing mutations in LRRK2 are likely to be quantitatively small. This work suggests that LRRK2 is unlikely to play a direct role in modulation of gene expression, although it remains possible that this protein can influence mRNA expression under pathogenic cicumstances.

Spatio-temporal variation in predation by urban domestic cats (Felis catus) and the acceptability of possible management actions in the UK

Urban domestic cat (Felis catus) populations can attain exceedingly high densities and are not limited by natural prey availability. This has generated concerns that they may negatively affect prey populations, leading to calls for management. We enlisted cat-owners to record prey returned home to estimate patterns of predation by free-roaming pets in different localities within the town of Reading, UK and questionnaire surveys were used to quantify attitudes to different possible management strategies. Prey return rates were highly variable: only 20% of cats returned ≥4 dead prey annually. Consequently, approximately 65% of owners received no prey in a given season, but this declined to 22% after eight seasons. The estimated mean predation rate was 18.3 prey cat−1 year−1 but this varied markedly both spatially and temporally: per capita predation rates declined with increasing cat density. Comparisons with estimates of the density of six common bird prey species indicated that cats killed numbers equivalent to adult density on c. 39% of occasions. Population modeling studies suggest that such predation rates could significantly reduce the size of local bird populations for common urban species. Conversely, most urban residents did not consider cat predation to be a significant problem. Collar-mounted anti-predation devices were the only management action acceptable to the majority of urban residents (65%), but were less acceptable to cat-owners because of perceived risks to their pets; only 24% of cats were fitted with such devices. Overall, cat predation did appear to be of sufficient magnitude to affect some prey populations, although further investigation of some key aspects of cat predation is warranted. Management of the predation behavior of urban cat populations in the UK is likely to be challenging and achieving this would require considerable engagement with cat owners.

Differential effects of two fermentable carbohydrates on central appetite regulation and body composition

BACKGROUND: Obesity is rising at an alarming rate globally. Different fermentable carbohydrates have been shown to reduce obesity. The aim of the present study was to investigate if two different fermentable carbohydrates (inulin and b-glucan) exert similar effects on body composition and central appetite regulation in high fat fed mice. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Thirty six C57BL/6 male mice were randomized and maintained for 8 weeks on a high fat diet containing 0% (w/w) fermentable carbohydrate, 10% (w/w) inulin or 10% (w/w) b-glucan individually. Fecal and cecal microbial changes were measured using fluorescent in situ hybridization, fecal metabolic profiling was obtained by proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR), colonic short chain fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography, body composition and hypothalamic neuronal activation were measured using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and manganese enhanced MRI (MEMRI), respectively, PYY (peptide YY) concentration was determined by radioimmunoassay, adipocyte cell size and number were also measured. Both inulin and b-glucan fed groups revealed significantly lower cumulative body weight gain compared with high fat controls. Energy intake was significantly lower in b-glucan than inulin fed mice, with the latter having the greatest effect on total adipose tissue content. Both groups also showed an increase in the numbers of Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus-Enterococcus in cecal contents as well as feces. b- glucan appeared to have marked effects on suppressing MEMRI associated neuronal signals in the arcuate nucleus, ventromedial hypothalamus, paraventricular nucleus, periventricular nucleus and the nucleus of the tractus solitarius, suggesting a satiated state. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although both fermentable carbohydrates are protective against increased body weight gain, the lower body fat content induced by inulin may be metabolically advantageous. b-glucan appears to suppress neuronal activity in the hypothalamic appetite centers. Differential effects of fermentable carbohydrates open new possibilities for nutritionally targeting appetite regulation and body composition.

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Axonal velocity distributions in neural feld equations

By modelling the average activity of large neuronal populations, continuum mean field models (MFMs) have become an increasingly important theoretical tool for understanding the emergent activity of cortical tissue. In order to be computationally tractable, long-range propagation of activity in MFMs is often approximated with partial differential equations (PDEs). However, PDE approximations in current use correspond to underlying axonal velocity distributions incompatible with experimental measurements. In order to rectify this deficiency, we here introduce novel propagation PDEs that give rise to smooth unimodal distributions of axonal conduction velocities. We also argue that velocities estimated from fibre diameters in slice and from latency measurements, respectively, relate quite differently to such distributions, a significant point for any phenomenological description. Our PDEs are then successfully fit to fibre diameter data from human corpus callosum and rat subcortical white matter. This allows for the first time to simulate long-range conduction in the mammalian brain with realistic, convenient PDEs. Furthermore, the obtained results suggest that the propagation of activity in rat and human differs significantly beyond mere scaling. The dynamical consequences of our new formulation are investigated in the context of a well known neural field model. On the basis of Turing instability analyses, we conclude that pattern formation is more easily initiated using our more realistic propagator. By increasing characteristic conduction velocities, a smooth transition can occur from self-sustaining bulk oscillations to travelling waves of various wavelengths, which may influence axonal growth during development. Our analytic results are also corroborated numerically using simulations on a large spatial grid. Thus we provide here a comprehensive analysis of empirically constrained activity propagation in the context of MFMs, which will allow more realistic studies of mammalian brain activity in the future.

Rational engineering of recombinant picornavirus capsids to produce safe, protective vaccine antigen

Foot-and-mouth disease remains a major plague of livestock and outbreaks are often economically catastrophic. Current inactivated virus vaccines require expensive high containment facilities for their production and maintenance of a cold-chain for their activity. We have addressed both of these major drawbacks. Firstly we have developed methods to efficiently express recombinant empty capsids. Expression constructs aimed at lowering the levels and activity of the viral protease required for the cleavage of the capsid protein precursor were used; this enabled the synthesis of empty A-serotype capsids in eukaryotic cells at levels potentially attractive to industry using both vaccinia virus and baculovirus driven expression. Secondly we have enhanced capsid stability by incorporating a rationally designed mutation, and shown by X-ray crystallography that stabilised and wild-type empty capsids have essentially the same structure as intact virus. Cattle vaccinated with recombinant capsids showed sustained virus neutralisation titres and protection from challenge 34 weeks after immunization. This approach to vaccine antigen production has several potential advantages over current technologies by reducing production costs, eliminating the risk of infectivity and enhancing the temperature stability of the product. Similar strategies that will optimize host cell viability during expression of a foreign toxic gene and/or improve capsid stability could allow the production of safe vaccines for other pathogenic picornaviruses of humans and animals.

Plant-symbiotic fungi as chemical engineers: multi-genome analysis of the Clavicipitaceae reveals dynamics of alkaloid Loci

The fungal family Clavicipitaceae includes plant symbionts and parasites that produce several psychoactive and bioprotective alkaloids. The family includes grass symbionts in the epichloae clade (Epichloë and Neotyphodium species), which are extraordinarily diverse both in their host interactions and in their alkaloid profiles. Epichloae produce alkaloids of four distinct classes, all of which deter insects, and some—including the infamous ergot alkaloids—have potent effects on mammals. The exceptional chemotypic diversity of the epichloae may relate to their broad range of host interactions, whereby some are pathogenic and contagious, others are mutualistic and vertically transmitted (seed-borne), and still others vary in pathogenic or mutualistic behavior. We profiled the alkaloids and sequenced the genomes of 10 epichloae, three ergot fungi (Claviceps species), a morning-glory symbiont (Periglandula ipomoeae), and a bamboo pathogen (Aciculosporium take), and compared the gene clusters for four classes of alkaloids. Results indicated a strong tendency for alkaloid loci to have conserved cores that specify the skeleton structures and peripheral genes that determine chemical variations that are known to affect their pharmacological specificities. Generally, gene locations in cluster peripheries positioned them near to transposon-derived, AT-rich repeat blocks, which were probably involved in gene losses, duplications, and neofunctionalizations. The alkaloid loci in the epichloae had unusual structures riddled with large, complex, and dynamic repeat blocks. This feature was not reflective of overall differences in repeat contents in the genomes, nor was it characteristic of most other specialized metabolism loci. The organization and dynamics of alkaloid loci and abundant repeat blocks in the epichloae suggested that these fungi are under selection for alkaloid diversification. We suggest that such selection is related to the variable life histories of the epichloae, their protective roles as symbionts, and their associations with the highly speciose and ecologically diverse cool-season grasses.

Dietary levels of pure flavonoids improve spatial memory performance and increase hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor.

Evidence suggests that flavonoid-rich foods are capable of inducing improvements in memory and cognition in animals and humans. However, there is a lack of clarity concerning whether flavonoids are the causal agents in inducing such behavioral responses. Here we show that supplementation with pure anthocyanins or pure flavanols for 6 weeks, at levels similar to that found in blueberry (2% w/w), results in an enhancement of spatial memory in 18 month old rats. Pure flavanols and pure anthocyanins were observed to induce significant improvements in spatial working memory (p = 0.002 and p = 0.006 respectively), to a similar extent to that following blueberry supplementation (p = 0.002). These behavioral changes were paralleled by increases in hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (R = 0.46, p<0.01), suggesting a common mechanism for the enhancement of memory. However, unlike protein levels of BDNF, the regional enhancement of BDNF mRNA expression in the hippocampus appeared to be predominantly enhanced by anthocyanins. Our data support the claim that flavonoids are likely causal agents in mediating the cognitive effects of flavonoid-rich foods.

Diversity in expression of phosphorus (P) responsive genes in Cucumis melo L.

Background: Phosphorus (P) is a major limiting nutrient for plant growth in many soils. Studies in model species have identified genes involved in plant adaptations to low soil P availability. However, little information is available on the genetic bases of these adaptations in vegetable crops. In this respect, sequence data for melon now makes it possible to identify melon orthologues of candidate P responsive genes, and the expression of these genes can be used to explain the diversity in the root system adaptation to low P availability, recently observed in this species. Methodology and Findings: Transcriptional responses to P starvation were studied in nine diverse melon accessions by comparing the expression of eight candidate genes (Cm-PAP10.1, Cm-PAP10.2, Cm-RNS1, Cm-PPCK1, Cm-transferase, Cm-SQD1, Cm-DGD1 and Cm-SPX2) under P replete and P starved conditions. Differences among melon accessions were observed in response to P starvation, including differences in plant morphology, P uptake, P use efficiency (PUE) and gene expression. All studied genes were up regulated under P starvation conditions. Differences in the expression of genes involved in P mobilization and remobilization (Cm-PAP10.1, Cm-PAP10.2 and Cm-RNS1) under P starvation conditions explained part of the differences in P uptake and PUE among melon accessions. The levels of expression of the other studied genes were diverse among melon accessions, but contributed less to the phenotypical response of the accessions. Conclusions: This is the first time that these genes have been described in the context of P starvation responses in melon. There exists significant diversity in gene expression levels and P use efficiency among melon accessions as well as significant correlations between gene expression levels and phenotypical measurements.

Gene expression changes in phosphorus deficient potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) leaves and the potential for diagnostic gene expression markers

Background: There are compelling economic and environmental reasons to reduce our reliance on inorganic phosphate (Pi) fertilisers. Better management of Pi fertiliser applications is one option to improve the efficiency of Pi fertiliser use, whilst maintaining crop yields. Application rates of Pi fertilisers are traditionally determined from analyses of soil or plant tissues. Alternatively, diagnostic genes with altered expression under Pi limiting conditions that suggest a physiological requirement for Pi fertilisation, could be used to manage Pifertiliser applications, and might be more precise than indirect measurements of soil or tissue samples. Results: We grew potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants hydroponically, under glasshouse conditions, to control their nutrient status accurately. Samples of total leaf RNA taken periodically after Pi was removed from the nutrient solution were labelled and hybridised to potato oligonucleotide arrays. A total of 1,659 genes were significantly differentially expressed following Pi withdrawal. These included genes that encode proteins involved in lipid, protein, and carbohydrate metabolism, characteristic of Pi deficient leaves and included potential novel roles for genes encoding patatin like proteins in potatoes. The array data were analysed using a support vector machine algorithm to identify groups of genes that could predict the Pi status of the crop. These groups of diagnostic genes were tested using field grown potatoes that had either been fertilised or unfertilised. A group of 200 genes could correctly predict the Pi status of field grown potatoes. Conclusions: This paper provides a proof-of-concept demonstration for using microarrays and class prediction tools to predict the Pi status of a field grown potato crop. There is potential to develop this technology for other biotic and abiotic stresses in field grown crops. Ultimately, a better understanding of crop stresses may improve our management of the crop, improving the sustainability of agriculture.

Within-host evolution of Staphylococcus aureus during asymptomatic carriage

Background Staphylococcus aureus is a major cause of healthcare associated mortality, but like many important bacterial pathogens, it is a common constituent of the normal human body flora. Around a third of healthy adults are carriers. Recent evidence suggests that evolution of S. aureus during nasal carriage may be associated with progression to invasive disease. However, a more detailed understanding of within-host evolution under natural conditions is required to appreciate the evolutionary and mechanistic reasons why commensal bacteria such as S. aureus cause disease. Therefore we examined in detail the evolutionary dynamics of normal, asymptomatic carriage. Sequencing a total of 131 genomes across 13 singly colonized hosts using the Illumina platform, we investigated diversity, selection, population dynamics and transmission during the short-term evolution of S. aureus. Principal Findings We characterized the processes by which the raw material for evolution is generated: micro-mutation (point mutation and small insertions/deletions), macro-mutation (large insertions/deletions) and the loss or acquisition of mobile elements (plasmids and bacteriophages). Through an analysis of synonymous, non-synonymous and intergenic mutations we discovered a fitness landscape dominated by purifying selection, with rare examples of adaptive change in genes encoding surface-anchored proteins and an enterotoxin. We found evidence for dramatic, hundred-fold fluctuations in the size of the within-host population over time, which we related to the cycle of colonization and clearance. Using a newly-developed population genetics approach to detect recent transmission among hosts, we revealed evidence for recent transmission between some of our subjects, including a husband and wife both carrying populations of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). Significance This investigation begins to paint a picture of the within-host evolution of an important bacterial pathogen during its prevailing natural state, asymptomatic carriage. These results also have wider significance as a benchmark for future systematic studies of evolution during invasive S. aureus disease.

Distribution of mosquitoes in the South East of Argentina and first report on the analysis based on 18S rDNA and COI sequences

Although Mar del Plata is the most important city on the Atlantic coast of Argentina, mosquitoes inhabiting such area are almost uncharacterized. To increase our knowledge in their distribution, we sampled specimens of natural populations. After the morphological identification based on taxonomic keys, sequences of DNA from small ribosomal subunit (18S rDNA) and cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) genes were obtained from native species and the phylogenetic analysis of these sequences were done. Fourteen species from the genera Uranotaenia, Culex, Ochlerotatus and Psorophora were found and identified. Our 18S rDNA and COI-based analysis indicates the relationships among groups at the supra-species level in concordance with mosquito taxonomy. The introduction and spread of vectors and diseases carried by them are not known in Mar del Plata, but some of the species found in this study were reported as pathogen vectors.