Validation of ACE-FTS satellite data in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using non-coincident measurements

CO, O3, and H2O data in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer(ACE-FTS) on Canada’s SCISAT-1 satellite are validated using aircraft and ozonesonde measurements. In the UTLS, validation of chemical trace gas measurements is a challenging task due to small-scale variability in the tracer fields, strong gradients of the tracers across the tropopause, and scarcity of measurements suitable for validation purposes. Validation based on coincidences therefore suffers from geophysical noise. Two alternative methods for the validation of satellite data are introduced, which avoid the usual need for coincident measurements: tracer-tracer correlations, and vertical tracer profiles relative to tropopause height. Both are increasingly being used for model validation as they strongly suppress geophysical variability and thereby provide an “instantaneous climatology”. This allows comparison of measurements between non-coincident data sets which yields information about the precision and a statistically meaningful error-assessment of the ACE-FTS satellite data in the UTLS. By defining a trade-off factor, we show that the measurement errors can be reduced by including more measurements obtained over a wider longitude range into the comparison, despite the increased geophysical variability. Applying the methods then yields the following upper bounds to the relative differences in the mean found between the ACE-FTS and SPURT aircraft measurements in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS), respectively: for CO ±9% and ±12%, for H2O ±30% and ±18%, and for O3 ±25% and ±19%. The relative differences for O3 can be narrowed down by using a larger dataset obtained from ozonesondes, yielding a high bias in the ACEFTS measurements of 18% in the UT and relative differences of ±8% for measurements in the LS. When taking into account the smearing effect of the vertically limited spacing between measurements of the ACE-FTS instrument, the relative differences decrease by 5–15% around the tropopause, suggesting a vertical resolution of the ACE-FTS in the UTLS of around 1 km. The ACE-FTS hence offers unprecedented precision and vertical resolution for a satellite instrument, which will allow a new global perspective on UTLS tracer distributions.

Attic pottery in early Classical Thessaly. A case study from Achaia Phthiotis

This paper attributes a previously unnoticed Attic black-figured lekythos kept in the Archaeological Museum of Volos to the Pholos Group (ca. 470 BC) and discusses its findspot in the peripheral Thessalian district of Achaia Phthiotis. Beyond an art-historical appreciation of the hastily-drawn chariot scene on this lekythos and a discussion of stylistic parallels, which include a lekythos in Prague, it is argued that such lekythoi were socially important for their shape and small size that made them easily transportable. The assumed scarcity of Attic pottery in Thessaly can be questioned given that a considerable amount of Attic pottery from Thessalian locations is mentioned only in passing or remains unpublished in museum storage. Small late black-figured lekythoi predominate amongst Attic pottery shapes in Thessaly. The popularity of such lekythoi can become indicative of human mobility across the landscape and the consumption of imported (grave) goods by social groups other than elites.

Placentation and maternal investment in mammals

The mammalian placenta exhibits striking interspecific morphological variation, yet the implications of such diversity for reproductive strategies and fetal development remain obscure. More invasive hemochorial placentas, in which fetal tissues directly contact the maternal blood supply, are believed to facilitate nutrient transfer, resulting in higher fetal growth rates, and to be a state of relative fetal advantage in the evolution of maternal-offspring conflict. The extent of interdigitation between maternal and fetal tissues has received less attention than invasiveness but is also potentially important because it influences the surface area for exchange. We show that although increased placental invasiveness and interdigitation are both associated with shorter gestations, interdigitation is the key variable. Gestation times associated with highly interdigitated labyrinthine placentas are 44% of those associated with less interdigitated villous and trabecular placentas. There is, however, no relationship between placental traits and neonatal body and brain size. Hence, species with more interdigitated placentas produce neonates of similar body and brain size but in less than half the time. We suggest that the effects of placental interdigitation on growth rates and the way that these are traded off against gestation length may be promising avenues for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of parentoffspring conflict. Keywords: placenta, parent-offspring conflict, life history, brain evolution, reproductive strategies, gestation.

Adaptive evolution of four microcephaly genes and the evolution of brain size in anthropoid primates

The anatomical basis and adaptive function of the expansion in primate brain size have long been studied; however, we are only beginning to understand the genetic basis of these evolutionary changes. Genes linked to human primary microcephaly have received much attention as they have accelerated evolutionary rates along lineages leading to humans. However, these studies focus narrowly on apes, and the link between microcephaly gene evolution and brain evolution is disputed. We analyzed the molecular evolution of four genes associated with microcephaly (ASPM, CDK5RAP2, CENPJ, MCPH1) across 21 species representing all major clades of anthropoid primates. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, positive selection was not limited to or intensified along the lineage leading to humans. In fact we show that all four loci were subject to positive selection across the anthropoid primate phylogeny. We developed clearly defined hypotheses to explicitly test if selection on these loci was associated with the evolution of brain size. We found positive relationships between both CDK5RAP2 and ASPM and neonatal brain mass and somewhat weaker relationships between these genes and adult brain size. In contrast, there is no evidence linking CENPJ and MCPH1 to brain size evolution. The stronger association of ASPM and CDK5RAP2 evolution with neonatal brain size than with adult brain size is consistent with these loci having a direct effect on prenatal neuronal proliferation. These results suggest that primate brain size may have at least a partially conserved genetic basis. Our results contradict a previous study that linked adaptive evolution of ASPM to changes in relative cortex size; however, our analysis indicates that this conclusion is not robust. Our finding that the coding regions of two widely expressed loci has experienced pervasive positive selection in relation to a complex, quantitative developmental phenotype provides a notable counterexample to the commonly asserted hypothesis that cisregulatory regions play a dominant role in phenotypic evolution. Key words: ASPM, MCPH1, CDK5RAP2, CENPJ, brain, neurogenesis, primates.

A probabilistic analysis of the future potential of evaporative cooling systems in a temperate climate

The probabilistic projections of climate change for the United Kingdom (UK Climate Impacts Programme) show a trend towards hotter and drier summers. This suggests an expected increase in cooling demand for buildings – a conflicting requirement to reducing building energy needs and related CO2 emissions. Though passive design is used to reduce thermal loads of a building, a supplementary cooling system is often necessary. For such mixed-mode strategies, indirect evaporative cooling is investigated as a low energy option in the context of a warmer and drier UK climate. Analysis of the climate projections shows an increase in wet-bulb depression; providing a good indication of the cooling potential of an evaporative cooler. Modelling a mixed-mode building at two different locations, showed such a building was capable of maintaining adequate thermal comfort in future probable climates. Comparing the control climate to the scenario climate, an increase in the median of evaporative cooling load is evident. The shift is greater for London than for Glasgow with a respective 71.6% and 3.3% increase in the median annual cooling load. The study shows evaporative cooling should continue to function as an effective low-energy cooling technique in future, warming climates.

Influence of probabilistic climate projections on building energy simulation

The Chartered Institute of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE) produced a technical memorandum (TM36) presenting research on future climate impacting building energy use and thermal comfort. One climate projection for each of four CO2 emissions scenario were used in TM36, so providing a deterministic outlook. As part of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) probabilistic climate projections are being studied in relation to building energy simulation techniques. Including uncertainty in climate projections is considered an important advance to climate impacts modelling and is included in the latest UKCIP data (UKCP09). Incorporating the stochastic nature of these new climate projections in building energy modelling requires a significant increase in data handling and careful statistical interpretation of the results to provide meaningful conclusions. This paper compares the results from building energy simulations when applying deterministic and probabilistic climate data. This is based on two case study buildings: (i) a mixed-mode office building with exposed thermal mass and (ii) a mechanically ventilated, light-weight office building. Building (i) represents an energy efficient building design that provides passive and active measures to maintain thermal comfort. Building (ii) relies entirely on mechanical means for heating and cooling, with its light-weight construction raising concern over increased cooling loads in a warmer climate. Devising an effective probabilistic approach highlighted greater uncertainty in predicting building performance, depending on the type of building modelled and the performance factors under consideration. Results indicate that the range of calculated quantities depends not only on the building type but is strongly dependent on the performance parameters that are of interest. Uncertainty is likely to be particularly marked with regard to thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings.

Expression, purification and crystallization of the ectodomain of the envelope glycoprotein E2 from Bovine viral diarrhoea virus

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is an economically important animal pathogen which is closely related to Hepatitis C virus. Of the structural proteins, the envelope glycoprotein E2 of BVDV is the major antigen which induces neutralizing antibodies; thus, BVDV E2 is considered as an ideal target for use in subunit vaccines. Here, the expression, purification of wild-type and mutant forms of the ectodomain of BVDV E2 and subsequent crystallization and data collection of two crystal forms grown at low and neutral pH are reported. Native and multiple-wavelength anomalous dispersion (MAD) data sets have been collected and structure determination is in progress.

Analysis of the variability of auditory brainstem response components through linear regression

(ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investiga- tion of the auditory system behavior, though its in- terpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analyzing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identi- fication of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave la- tency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research is to compare ABR manual/visual analysis provided by different examiners. Methods: The ABR data were collected from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). A total of 160 data samples were analyzed and a pair- wise comparison between four distinct examiners was executed. We carried out a statistical study aiming to identify significant differences between assessments provided by the examiners. For this, we used Linear Regression in conjunction with Bootstrap, as a me- thod for evaluating the relation between the responses given by the examiners. Results: The analysis sug- gests agreement among examiners however reveals differences between assessments of the variability of the waves. We quantified the magnitude of the ob- tained wave latency differences and 18% of the inves- tigated waves presented substantial differences (large and moderate) and of these 3.79% were considered not acceptable for the clinical practice. Conclusions: Our results characterize the variability of the manual analysis of ABR data and the necessity of establishing unified standards and protocols for the analysis of these data. These results may also contribute to the validation and development of automatic systems that are employed in the early diagnosis of hearing loss.

Assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of auditory brainstem response

Abstract Background: The analysis of the Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investigation of the auditory system behaviour, though its interpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analysing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identification of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave latency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. Significant differences in inter-examiner results may lead to completely distinct clinical interpretations of the state of the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research was to evaluate the inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of ABR. Methods: A total of 160 ABR data samples were collected, for four different stimulus intensity (80dBHL, 60dBHL, 40dBHL and 20dBHL), from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). Four examiners with expertise in the manual classification of ABR components participated in the study. The Bland-Altman statistical method was employed for the assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability. The mean, standard deviation and error for the bias, which is the difference between examiners’ annotations, were estimated for each pair of examiners. Scatter plots and histograms were employed for data visualization and analysis. Results: In most comparisons the differences between examiner’s annotations were below 0.1 ms, which is clinically acceptable. In four cases, it was found a large error and standard deviation (>0.1 ms) that indicate the presence of outliers and thus, discrepancies between examiners. Conclusions: Our results quantify the inter-examiner agreement and variability of the manual analysis of ABR data, and they also allows for the determination of different patterns of manual ABR analysis.

Comparison of the open-closed separatrix in a global magnetospheric simulation with observations: the role of the ring current

The development of global magnetospheric models, such as Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), which can accurately reproduce and track space weather processes has high practical utility. We present an interval on 5 June 1998, where the location of the polar cap boundary, or open-closed field line boundary (OCB), can be determined in the ionosphere using a combination of instruments during a period encompassing a sharp northward to southward interplanetary field turning. We present both point- and time-varying comparisons of the observed and simulated boundaries in the ionosphere and find that when using solely the coupled ideal magnetohydrodynamic magnetosphere-ionosphere model, the rate of change of the OCB to a southward turning of the interplanetary field is significantly faster than that computed from the observational data. However, when the inner magnetospheric module is incorporated, the modeling framework both qualitatively, and often quantitatively, reproduces many elements of the studied interval prior to an observed substorm onset. This result demonstrates that the physics of the inner magnetosphere is critical in shaping the boundary between open and closed field lines during periods of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and provides significant insight into the 3-D time-dependent behavior of the Earth's magnetosphere in response to a northward-southward IMF turning. We assert that during periods that do not include the tens of minutes surrounding substorm expansion phase onset, the coupled SWMF model may provide a valuable and reliable tool for estimating both the OCB and magnetic field topology over a wide range of latitudes and local times.

Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after AD 1500

The significance and cause of the decline in biomass burning across the Americas after AD 1500 is a topic of considerable debate. We synthesized charcoal records (a proxy for biomass burning) from the Americas and from the remainder of the globe over the past 2000 years, and compared these with paleoclimatic records and population reconstructions. A distinct post-AD 1500 decrease in biomass burning is evident, not only in the Americas, but also globally, and both are similar in duration and timing to ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change. There is temporal and spatial variability in the expression of the biomass-burning decline across the Americas but, at a regional–continental scale, ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline.

Establishment of normal gut microbiota is compromised under excessive hygiene conditions

Background: Early gut colonization events are purported to have a major impact on the incidence of infectious, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases in later life. Hence, factors which influence this process may have important implications for both human and animal health. Previously, we demonstrated strong influences of early-life environment on gut microbiota composition in adult pigs. Here, we sought to further investigate the impact of limiting microbial exposure during early life on the development of the pig gut microbiota. Methodology/Principal Findings: Outdoor- and indoor-reared animals, exposed to the microbiota in their natural rearing environment for the first two days of life, were transferred to an isolator facility and adult gut microbial diversity was analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. From a total of 2,196 high-quality 16S rRNA gene sequences, 440 phylotypes were identified in the outdoor group and 431 phylotypes in the indoor group. The majority of clones were assigned to the four phyla Firmicutes (67.5% of all sequences), Proteobacteria (17.7%), Bacteroidetes (13.5%) and to a lesser extent, Actinobacteria (0.1%). Although the initial maternal and environmental microbial inoculum of isolator-reared animals was identical to that of their naturally-reared littermates, the microbial succession and stabilization events reported previously in naturally-reared outdoor animals did not occur. In contrast, the gut microbiota of isolator-reared animals remained highly diverse containing a large number of distinct phylotypes. Conclusions/Significance: The results documented here indicate that establishment and development of the normal gut microbiota requires continuous microbial exposure during the early stages of life and this process is compromised under conditions of excessive hygiene.

Large inert carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum

During each of the late Pleistocene glacial–interglacial transitions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose by almost 100 ppm. The sources of this carbon are unclear, and efforts to identify them are hampered by uncertainties in the magnitude of carbon reservoirs and fluxes under glacial conditions. Here we use oxygen isotope measurements from air trapped in ice cores and ocean carbon-cycle modelling to estimate terrestrial and oceanic gross primary productivity during the Last Glacial Maximum. We find that the rate of gross terrestrial primary production during the Last Glacial Maximum was about 40±10 Pg C yr−1, half that of the pre-industrial Holocene. Despite the low levels of photosynthesis, we estimate that the late glacial terrestrial biosphere contained only 330 Pg less carbon than pre-industrial levels. We infer that the area covered by carbon-rich but unproductive biomes such as tundra and cold steppes was significantly larger during the Last Glacial Maximum, consistent with palaeoecological data. Our data also indicate the presence of an inert carbon pool of 2,300 Pg C, about 700 Pg larger than the inert carbon locked in permafrost today. We suggest that the disappearance of this carbon pool at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum may have contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Care homes’ use of medicines study: prevalence, causes and potential harm of medication errors in care homes for older people

Introduction: Care home residents are at particular risk from medication errors, and our objective was to determine the prevalence and potential harm of prescribing, monitoring, dispensing and administration errors in UK care homes, and to identify their causes. Methods: A prospective study of a random sample of residents within a purposive sample of homes in three areas. Errors were identified by patient interview, note review, observation of practice and examination of dispensed items. Causes were understood by observation and from theoretically framed interviews with home staff, doctors and pharmacists. Potential harm from errors was assessed by expert judgement. Results: The 256 residents recruited in 55 homes were taking a mean of 8.0 medicines. One hundred and seventy-eight (69.5%) of residents had one or more errors. The mean number per resident was 1.9 errors. The mean potential harm from prescribing, monitoring, administration and dispensing errors was 2.6, 3.7, 2.1 and 2.0 (0 = no harm, 10 = death), respectively. Contributing factors from the 89 interviews included doctors who were not accessible, did not know the residents and lacked information in homes when prescribing; home staff’s high workload, lack of medicines training and drug round interruptions; lack of team work among home, practice and pharmacy; inefficient ordering systems; inaccurate medicine records and prevalence of verbal communication; and difficult to fill (and check) medication administration systems. Conclusions: That two thirds of residents were exposed to one or more medication errors is of concern. The will to improve exists, but there is a lack of overall responsibility. Action is required from all concerned.