Direct investment in real estate

Momentum strategies have the potential to generate extra profits in private real estate markets. Tests of a variety of frequencies of portfolio reweighting identify periods of winner and loser performance. There are strong potential gains from momentum strategies that are based on prior returns over a 6- to 12-month period. Whether these gains are attainable for real-world investors depends on transaction costs, but some momentum strategies do produce net excess returns. The findings hold even if returns are unsmoothed to reflect underlying market prices.

Pricing inefficiencies in private real estate markets using total return swaps

Efficient markets should guarantee the existence of zero spreads for total return swaps. However, real estate markets have recorded values that are significantly different from zero in both directions. Possible explanations might suggest non-rational behaviour by inexperienced market players or unusual features of the underlying asset market. We find that institutional characteristics in the underlying market lead to market inefficiencies and, hence, to the creation of a rational trading window with upper and lower bounds within which transactions do not offer arbitrage opportunities. Given the existence of this rational trading window, we also argue that the observed spreads can substantially be explained by trading imbalances due to the limited liquidity of a newly formed market and/or to the effect of market sentiment, complementing explanations based on the lag between underlying market returns and index returns.

The Namib Sand Sea digital database of aeolian dunes and key forcing variables

A new digital atlas of the geomorphology of the Namib Sand Sea in southern Africa has been developed. This atlas incorporates a number of databases including a digital elevation model (ASTER and SRTM) and other remote sensing databases that cover climate (ERA-40) and vegetation (PAL and GIMMS). A map of dune types in the Namib Sand Sea has been derived from Landsat and CNES/SPOT imagery. The atlas also includes a collation of geochronometric dates, largely derived from luminescence techniques, and a bibliographic survey of the research literature on the geomorphology of the Namib dune system. Together these databases provide valuable information that can be used as a starting point for tackling important questions about the development of the Namib and other sand seas in the past, present and future.