Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules

There are several scoring rules that one can choose from in order to score probabilistic forecasting models or estimate model parameters. Whilst it is generally agreed that proper scoring rules are preferable, there is no clear criterion for preferring one proper scoring rule above another. This manuscript compares and contrasts some commonly used proper scoring rules and provides guidance on scoring rule selection. In particular, it is shown that the logarithmic scoring rule prefers erring with more uncertainty, the spherical scoring rule prefers erring with lower uncertainty, whereas the other scoring rules are indifferent to either option.

Fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images using support value transform and fuzzy combination rules

Infrared polarization and intensity imagery provide complementary and discriminative information in image understanding and interpretation. In this paper, a novel fusion method is proposed by effectively merging the information with various combination rules. It makes use of both low-frequency and highfrequency images components from support value transform (SVT), and applies fuzzy logic in the combination process. Images (both infrared polarization and intensity images) to be fused are firstly decomposed into low-frequency component images and support value image sequences by the SVT. Then the low-frequency component images are combined using a fuzzy combination rule blending three sub-combination methods of (1) region feature maximum, (2) region feature weighting average, and (3) pixel value maximum; and the support value image sequences are merged using a fuzzy combination rule fusing two sub-combination methods of (1) pixel energy maximum and (2) region feature weighting. With the variables of two newly defined features, i.e. the low-frequency difference feature for low-frequency component images and the support-value difference feature for support value image sequences, trapezoidal membership functions are proposed and developed in tuning the fuzzy fusion process. Finally the fused image is obtained by inverse SVT operations. Experimental results of visual inspection and quantitative evaluation both indicate the superiority of the proposed method to its counterparts in image fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images.

Aspect selection in adult L2 Spanish and the competing systems hypothesis: when pedagogical and linguistic rules conflict.

Native-like use of preterit and imperfect morphology in all contexts by English learners of L2 Spanish is the exception rather than the rule, even for successful learners. Nevertheless, recent research has demonstrated that advanced English learners of L2 Spanish attain a native-like morphosyntactic competence for the preterit/imperfect contrast, as evidenced by their native-like knowledge of associated semantic entailments (Goodin-Mayeda and Rothman 2007, Montrul and Slabakova 2003, Slabakova and Montrul 2003, Rothman and Iverson 2007). In addition to an L2 disassociation of morphology and syntax (e.g., Bruhn de Garavito 2003, Lardiere 1998, 2000, 2005, Prévost and White 1999, 2000, Schwartz 2003), I hypothesize that a system of learned pedagogical rules contributes to target-deviant L2 performance in this domain through the most advanced stages of L2 acquisition via its competition with the generative system. I call this hypothesis the Competing Systems Hypothesis. To test its predictions, I compare and contrast the use of the preterit and imperfect in two production tasks by native, tutored (classroom), and naturalistic learners of L2 Spanish.

Emotion strengthens high priority memory traces but weakens low priority memory traces

When people encounter emotional events, their memory for those events is typically enhanced. But it has been unclear how emotionally arousing events influence memory for preceding information. Does emotional arousal induce retrograde amnesia or retrograde enhancement? The current study revealed that this depends on the top-down goal relevance of the preceding information. Across three studies, we found that emotional arousal induced by one image facilitated memory for the preceding neutral item when people prioritized that neutral item. In contrast, an emotionally arousing image impaired memory for the preceding neutral item when people did not prioritize that neutral item. Emotional arousal elicited by both negative and positive pictures showed this pattern of enhancing or impairing memory for the preceding stimulus depending on its priority. These results indicate that emotional arousal amplifies the effects of top-down priority in memory formation.

Competing for attentional priority: temporary goals versus threats

Numerous studies have shown that attention is biased toward threatening events. More recent evidence has also found attentional biases for stimuli that are relevant to the current and temporary goals of an individual. We examined whether goal-relevant information still evokes an attentional bias when this information competes with threatening events. In three experiments, participants performed a dot probe task combined with a separate task that induced a temporary goal. The results of Experiment 1 showed that attention was oriented to goal-relevant pictures in the dot probe task when these pictures were simultaneously presented with neutral or threatening pictures. Whether goal-relevant pictures themselves were threatening or neutral did not influence the results. Experiment 2 replicated these findings in a sample of highly trait-anxious participants. Experiment 3 showed that attention was automatically deployed to stimuli relevant to a temporary goal even in the presence of stimuli that signal imminent and genuine threat (i.e., a colored patch signaling the presentation of an aversive noise). These findings further corroborate the conclusion that an individual's current and temporary goals guide early attentional processes

Grey matter volume in the cerebellum is related to processing of grammatical rules in a second language: a structural Voxel-Based Morphometry study

The experience of learning and using a second language (L2) has been shown to affect the grey matter (GM) structure of the brain. Importantly, GM density in several cortical and subcortical areas has been shown to be related to performance in L2 tasks. Here we show that bilingualism can lead to increased GM volume in the cerebellum, a structure that has been related to the processing of grammatical rules. Additionally, the cerebellar GM volume of highly proficient L2 speakers is correlated to their performance in a task tapping on grammatical processing in a L2, demonstrating the importance of the cerebellum for the establishment and use of grammatical rules in a L2.

Priority research questions for the UK food system

The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many ‘post-farm gate’ activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives (‘world views’) from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the ‘top’ question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7–8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.

The role of rules-based compliance systems in the new EU regulatory landscape: perspectives of institutional change and agency

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent reaction of the G20 have created a new global regulatory landscape. Within the EU, change of regulatory institutions is ongoing. The research objective of this study is to understand how institutional changes to the EU regulatory landscape may affect corresponding institutionalized operational practices within financial organizations and to understand the role of agency within this process. Our motivation is to provide insight into these changes from an operational management perspective, as well as to test Thelen and Mahoney?s (2010) modes of institutional change. Consequently, the study researched implementations of an Investment Management System with a rules-based compliance module within financial organizations. The research consulted compliance and risk managers, as well as systems experts. The study suggests that prescriptive regulations are likely to create isomorphic configurations of rules-based compliance systems, which consequently will enable the institutionalization of associated compliance practices. The study reveals the ability of some agents within financial organizations to control the impact of regulatory institutions, not directly, but through the systems and processes they adopt to meet requirements. Furthermore, the research highlights the boundaries and relationships between each mode of change as future avenues of research.

J-measure based hybrid pruning for complexity reduction in classification rules

Prism is a modular classification rule generation method based on the ‘separate and conquer’ approach that is alternative to the rule induction approach using decision trees also known as ‘divide and conquer’. Prism often achieves a similar level of classification accuracy compared with decision trees, but tends to produce a more compact noise tolerant set of classification rules. As with other classification rule generation methods, a principle problem arising with Prism is that of overfitting due to over-specialised rules. In addition, over-specialised rules increase the associated computational complexity. These problems can be solved by pruning methods. For the Prism method, two pruning algorithms have been introduced recently for reducing overfitting of classification rules - J-pruning and Jmax-pruning. Both algorithms are based on the J-measure, an information theoretic means for quantifying the theoretical information content of a rule. Jmax-pruning attempts to exploit the J-measure to its full potential because J-pruning does not actually achieve this and may even lead to underfitting. A series of experiments have proved that Jmax-pruning may outperform J-pruning in reducing overfitting. However, Jmax-pruning is computationally relatively expensive and may also lead to underfitting. This paper reviews the Prism method and the two existing pruning algorithms above. It also proposes a novel pruning algorithm called Jmid-pruning. The latter is based on the J-measure and it reduces overfitting to a similar level as the other two algorithms but is better in avoiding underfitting and unnecessary computational effort. The authors conduct an experimental study on the performance of the Jmid-pruning algorithm in terms of classification accuracy and computational efficiency. The algorithm is also evaluated comparatively with the J-pruning and Jmax-pruning algorithms.

Computing Fresnel integrals via modified trapezium rules

In this paper we propose methods for computing Fresnel integrals based on truncated trapezium rule approximations to integrals on the real line, these trapezium rules modified to take into account poles of the integrand near the real axis. Our starting point is a method for computation of the error function of complex argument due to Matta and Reichel (J Math Phys 34:298–307, 1956) and Hunter and Regan (Math Comp 26:539–541, 1972). We construct approximations which we prove are exponentially convergent as a function of N , the number of quadrature points, obtaining explicit error bounds which show that accuracies of 10−15 uniformly on the real line are achieved with N=12 , this confirmed by computations. The approximations we obtain are attractive, additionally, in that they maintain small relative errors for small and large argument, are analytic on the real axis (echoing the analyticity of the Fresnel integrals), and are straightforward to implement.

When rules and principles are not enough: insiders’ views and narratives on the global financial crisis

Much has been written about Wall Street and the global financial crisis (GFC). From a fraudulent derivatives market to a contestable culture of banking bonuses, culpability has been examined within the frames of American praxis, namely that of American exceptionalism. This study begins with an exploratory analysis of non-US voices concerning the nature of the causes of the GFC. The analysis provides glimpses of the globalized extent of assumptions shared, but not debated within the globalization convergence of financial markets as the neo-liberal project. Practical and paradigmatic tensions are revealed in the capture of a London-based set of views articulated by senior financial executives of financial service organizations, the outcomes of which are not overly optimistic for any significant change in praxis within the immediate future.