Environmental evaluation of agri-environment schemes using participatory approaches: experiences of testing the Agri-Environmental Footprint Index

The Agri-Environment Footprint Index (AFI) has been developed as a generic methodology to assess changes in the overall environmental impacts from agriculture at the farm level and to assist in the evaluation of European agri-environmental schemes (AES). The methodology is based on multicriteria analysis (MCA) and involves stakeholder participation to provide a locally customised evaluation based on weighted environmental indicators. The methodology was subjected to a feasibility assessment in a series of case studies across the EU. The AFI approach was able to measure significant differences in environmental status between farms that participated in an AES and nonparticipants. Wider environmental concerns, beyond the scheme objectives, were also considered in some case studies and the benefits for identification of unintentional (and often beneficial) impacts of AESs are presented. The participatory approach to AES valuation proved efficient in different environments and administrative contexts. The approach proved to be appropriate for environmental evaluation of complex agri-environment systems and can complement any evaluation conducted under the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. The applicability of the AFI in routine monitoring of AES impacts and in providing feedback to improve policy design is discussed.

Can we explain the dynamics of the UK FTSE 100 stock and stock index futures markets?

If stock and stock index futures markets are functioning properly price movements in these markets should best be described by a first order vector error correction model with the error correction term being the price differential between the two markets (the basis). Recent evidence suggests that there are more dynamics present than should be in effectively functioning markets. Using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, this study analyses whether such dynamics can be related to different regimes within which the basis can fluctuate in a predictable manner without triggering arbitrage. These findings reveal that the basis shows strong evidence of autoregressive behaviour when its value is between the two thresholds but that the extra dynamics disappear once the basis moves above the upper threshold and their persistence is reduced, although not eradicated, once the basis moves below the lower threshold. This suggests that once nonlinearity associated with transactions costs is accounted for, stock and stock index futures markets function more effectively than is suggested by linear models of the pricing relationship.

An analysis of commercial real estate returns: an anatomy of smoothing in asset and index returns

In this article, we investigate the commonly used autoregressive filter method of adjusting appraisal-based real estate returns to correct for the perceived biases induced in the appraisal process. Many articles have been written on appraisal smoothing but remarkably few have considered the relationship between smoothing at the individual property level and the amount of persistence in the aggregate appraisal-based index. To investigate this issue we analyze a large sample of appraisal data at the individual property level from the Investment Property Databank. We find that commonly used unsmoothing estimates at the index level overstate the extent of smoothing that takes place at the individual property level. There is also strong support for an ARFIMA representation of appraisal returns at the index level and an ARMA model at the individual property level.

A brief index of affective job satisfaction

This article responds to criticisms that affective job satisfaction research suffers serious measurement problems: Noncomparable measures; studies conceptualizing job satisfaction affectively but measuring it cognitively; and ad hoc measures lacking systematic development and validation, especially across populations by nationality, job level, and job type. We address these problems through a series of qualitative (total N = 28) and quantitative (total N = 901) studies to systematically develop and validate a short affective job satisfaction measure ultimately deriving from Brayfield and Rothe’s (1951) job satisfaction index. Unlike any previous job satisfaction measure, the resulting four-item Brief Index of Affective Job Satisfaction is overtly affective, minimally cognitive, and optimally brief. The new measure also differs from any previous job satisfaction measure in being comprehensively validated not just for internal consistency reliability, temporal stability, convergent and criterion-related validities, but also for cross-population invariance by nationality, job level, and job type.

Oxygen/Glucose deprivation induces a reduction in synaptic AMPA receptors on hippocampal CA3 neurons mediated by mGluR1 and adenosine A3 receptors

Hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons are highly sensitive to ischemic damage, whereas neighboring CA3 pyramidal neurons are less susceptible. It is proposed that switching of AMPA receptor (AMPAR) subunits on CA1 neurons during an in vitro model of ischemia, oxygen/glucose deprivation (OGD), leads to an enhanced permeability of AMPARs to Ca2+, resulting in delayed cell death. However, it is unclear whether the same mechanisms exist in CA3 neurons and whether this underlies the differential sensitivity to ischemia. Here, we investigated the consequences of OGD for AMPAR function in CA3 neurons using electrophysiological recordings in rat hippocampal slices. Following a 15 min OGD protocol, a substantial depression of AMPAR-mediated synaptic transmission was observed at CA3 associational/commissural and mossy fiber synapses but not CA1 Schaffer collateral synapses. The depression of synaptic transmission following OGD was prevented by metabotropic glutamate receptor 1 (mGluR1) or A3 receptor antagonists, indicating a role for both glutamate and adenosine release. Inhibition of PLC, PKC, or chelation of intracellular Ca2+ also prevented the depression of synaptic transmission. Inclusion of peptides to interrupt the interaction between GluA2 and PICK1 or dynamin and amphiphysin prevented the depression of transmission, suggesting a dynamin and PICK1-dependent internalization of AMPARs after OGD. We also show that a reduction in surface and total AMPAR protein levels after OGD was prevented by mGluR1 or A3 receptor antagonists, indicating that AMPARs are degraded following internalization. Thus, we describe a novel mechanism for the removal of AMPARs in CA3 pyramidal neurons following OGD that has the potential to reduce excitotoxicity and promote neuroprotection

Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux

Now that stratospheric ozone depletion has been controlled by the Montreal Protocol1, interest has turned to the effects of climate change on the ozone layer. Climate models predict an accelerated stratospheric circulation, leading to changes in the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and an increased stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Here we use an atmospheric chemistry climate model to isolate the effects of climate change from those of ozone depletion and recovery on stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux and the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index—a measure of potential human exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We show that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change moderate emissions scenario, global stratosphere-to- troposphere ozone flux increases by 23% between 1965 and 2095 as a result of climate change. During this time, the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index decreases by 9% in northern high latitudes — a much larger effect than that of stratospheric ozone recovery — and increases by 4% in the tropics, and by up to 20% in southern high latitudes in late spring and early summer. The latter increase in the ultraviolet index is equivalent to nearly half of that generated by the Antarctic ‘ozone hole’ that was created by anthropogenic halogens. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the tropospheric ozone budget and the ultraviolet index, which would have consequences for tropospheric radiative forcing, air quality and human and ecosystem health.

An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest

Canopy leaf area index (LAI), defined as the single-sided leaf area per unit ground area, is a quantitative measure of canopy foliar area. LAI is a controlling biophysical property of vegetation function, and quantifying LAI is thus vital for understanding energy, carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. LAI is routinely available from Earth Observation (EO) instruments such as MODIS. However EO-derived estimates of LAI require validation before they are utilised by the ecosystem modelling community. Previous validation work on the MODIS collection 4 (c4) product suggested considerable error especially in forested biomes, and as a result significant modification of the MODIS LAI algorithm has been made for the most recent collection 5 (c5). As a result of these changes the current MODIS LAI product has not been widely validated. We present a validation of the MODIS c5 LAI product over a 121 km2 area of mixed coniferous forest in Oregon, USA, based on detailed ground measurements which we have upscaled using high resolution EO data. Our analysis suggests that c5 shows a much more realistic temporal LAI dynamic over c4 values for the site we examined. We find improved spatial consistency between the MODIS c5 LAI product and upscaled in situ measurements. However results also suggest that the c5 LAI product underestimates the upper range of upscaled in situ LAI measurements.

Influence of colostrum deprivation and concurrent Cryptosporidium parvum infection on the colonization and persistence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in young lambs

Escherichia coli O157: H7 and Cryptosporidium parvum infections of man have been associated with direct contact with small ruminants. Colostrum protects neonates against gastrointestinal pathogens, and orphan lambs, which are common on petting farms, may be deprived of this protection. In a recent study, it was demonstrated that high shedding of E coli O157 : H7 by an 8-week-old goat kid was associated with coincidental C. parvum infection. Furthermore, both pathogens were co-located in the distal gastrointestinal tract. It was hypothesized that colostrum deprivation and pre-infection with C. parvum predisposed young ruminants to colonization and increased shedding of E coli O157: H7. To test this, 21 lambs 5 weeks of age were divided into four groups as follows: (A) colostrum-deprived and inoculated with E coli O157: H7, (B) colostrum-deprived and inoculated with C. parvum and then E coli O157: H7, (C) conventionally reared and inoculated with E coli O157: H7, (D) conventionally reared and inoculated with C. parvum and then E coli O15 7: H7. C. parvum was detected between 8 and 12 days post-inoculation in most of the infected lambs. At 24 h post-inoculation with E coli O157: H7, all lambs were shedding between 5 x 10(4) and 5 x 10(7) c.f.u. E coli O157: H7 per gram of faeces. E coli O157: H7 was shed in higher numbers in the groups pre-inoculated with C. parvum, whether conventionally reared or colostrum-deprived. Interestingly, for the colostrum-deprived lambs on day 3, a significant difference in shedding of E coli O157: H7 was observed (P= 0-038), with the lambs inoculated with E coli alone yielding higher counts than those pre-inoculated with C. parvum. From day 15 onwards, shedding of E coli O157: H7 was highest from the colostrum-deprived C. parvum-infected lambs, then (in descending order of shedding) the colostrum-deprived lambs, the conventionally reared lambs infected with C. parvum, and the conventionally reared animals. In total, four animals were euthanized, two at 24 h and two at 96 h post inoculation with E coli 0 157: H7 (two conventionally reared and two colostrum-deprived). All animals euthanized were from groups pre-inoculated with C. parvum prior to challenge with E coli O157 : H7. On examination of tissues, in three of the four animals examined, multifocal attaching and effacing lesions were observed in the caecum, colon, rectum and at the recto-anal junction, and were confirmed by immunolhistochemistry to be associated with E coli O157: H7.