An extratropical cyclone database: A tool for illustrating cyclone structure and evolution characteristics

Extratropical cyclone lifecycles have been studied extensively with the aim of understanding the dynamical mechanisms involved in their development. Previous work has often been based on subjective analysis of individual case studies. Such case studies have contributed heavily to the generation of conceptual models of extratropical cyclones that provide a framework for understanding the dynamical evolution of cyclones. These conceptual models are widely used in educational meteorology courses throughout the world to illustrate the basic structure and evolution of extratropical cyclones. This article presents a database of extratropical cyclone composites which highlight the average structure and evolution of 20 years of extratropical cyclones, as opposed to individual case studies. The composite fields are achieved by combining a database containing cyclone tracks from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2009, 6 hourly) with the full 3D ERA-Interim reanalysis fields. Vertical and horizontal composites of cyclone structure for cyclones generated in the Atlantic and Pacific regions identifying features such as the relative positions of cold, warm and occluded fronts and their associated wind and cloud patterns are shown. In addition the evolution of cyclonic flows such as the warm and cold conveyor belts and dry intrusion are illustrated. A webpage containing an archive of the composited data is freely available for educational purposes.

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

Can valuation factors be prescribed? The case of collective enfranchisement and leasehold extension of flats in England and Wales

Recent concerns over the valuation process in collective leasehold enfranchisement and lease extension cases have culminated in new legislation. To underpin this, the Government (Department of Environment Transport and the Regions (DETR)) commissioned new research, which examined whether the valuation of the freehold in such cases could be simplified through the prescription of either yield or marriage value/relativity. This paper, which is based on that research, examines whether it is possible or desirable to prescribe such factors in the valuation process. Market, settlement and Local Valuation Tribunal (LVT) decisions are analysed, and the basis of 'relativity charts' used in practice is critically examined. Ultimately the imperfect nature of the market in freehold investment sales and leasehold vacant possession sales means that recommendations must rest on an analysis of LVT data. New relativity curves are developed from this data and used in conjunction with an alternative approach to valuation yields (based on other investment assets). However, the paper concludes that although the prescription of yields and relativity is possible, it is not fully defensible because of problems in determining risk premia; that the evidential basis for relativity consists of LVT decisions; and that a formula approach would tend to 'lead' the market as a whole.

Liability of country foreignness and liability of regional foreignness: their effects on geographic diversification and firm performance

The costs of inter- and intra-regional diversification have been widely discussed in the existing international business literature, but the findings are mixed. Explanations for the mixed findings have important managerial implications, because business managers have to estimate accurately the costs of doing business within and across regions before they make their internationalization decisions. To explain the existing mixed findings, this study differentiates between liabilities of foreignness at the country and regional levels, and explores the joint effects of liability of country foreignness (LCF) and liability of regional foreignness (LRF) on the performance of internationalizing firms. Using data from 167 Canadian firms, we find that LCF may not necessarily be negatively correlated with intra-regional diversification, but LRF is positively correlated with inter-regional diversification. LCF moderates the relationship between LRF and inter-regional diversification, and also mediates the relationship between intra-regional diversification and firm performance. LRF mediates the relationship between inter-regional diversification and firm performance. Missing one or more of these variables may result in different cost estimates. Identification of the relationships between these variables helps to improve the accuracy of estimating the costs of doing business aboard.

Analysis and compensation of power amplifier nonlinearity in MIMO transmit diversity systems

The nonlinearity of high-power amplifiers (HPAs) has a crucial effect on the performance of multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In this paper, we investigate the performance of MIMO orthogonal space-time block coding (OSTBC) systems in the presence of nonlinear HPAs. Specifically, we propose a constellation-based compensation method for HPA nonlinearity in the case with knowledge of the HPA parameters at the transmitter and receiver, where the constellation and decision regions of the distorted transmitted signal are derived in advance. Furthermore, in the scenario without knowledge of the HPA parameters, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based compensation method for the HPA nonlinearity is proposed, which first estimates the channel-gain matrix by means of the SMC method and then uses the SMC-based algorithm to detect the desired signal. The performance of the MIMO-OSTBC system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), total degradation (TD) and system capacity, in uncorrelated Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical and simulation results are provided and show the effects on performance of several system parameters, such as the parameters of the HPA model, output back-off (OBO) of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), and number of SMC samples. In particular, it is shown that the constellation-based compensation method can efficiently mitigate the effect of HPA nonlinearity with low complexity and that the SMC-based detection scheme is efficient to compensate for HPA nonlinearity in the case without knowledge of the HPA parameters.

Tandem quadruplication of HMA4 in the zinc (Zn) and cadmium (Cd) hyperaccumulator Noccaea caerulescens

Zinc (Zn) and cadmium (Cd) hyperaccumulation may have evolved twice in the Brassicaceae, in Arabidopsis halleri and in the Noccaea genus. Tandem gene duplication and deregulated expression of the Zn transporter, HMA4, has previously been linked to Zn/Cd hyperaccumulation in A. halleri. Here, we tested the hypothesis that tandem duplication and deregulation of HMA4 expression also occurs in Noccaea. A Noccaea caerulescens genomic library was generated, containing 36,864 fosmid pCC1FOS (TM) clones with insert sizes similar to 20-40 kbp, and screened with a PCR-generated HMA4 genomic probe. Gene copy number within the genome was estimated through DNA fingerprinting and pooled fosmid pyrosequencing. Gene copy numbers within individual clones was determined by PCR analyses with novel locus specific primers. Entire fosmids were then sequenced individually and reads equivalent to 20-fold coverage were assembled to generate complete whole contigs. Four tandem HMA4 repeats were identified in a contiguous sequence of 101,480 bp based on sequence overlap identities. These were flanked by regions syntenous with up and downstream regions of AtHMA4 in Arabidopsis thaliana. Promoter-reporter beta-glucuronidase (GUS) fusion analysis of a NcHMA4 in A. thaliana revealed deregulated expression in roots and shoots, analogous to AhHMA4 promoters, but distinct from AtHMA4 expression which localised to the root vascular tissue. This remarkable consistency in tandem duplication and deregulated expression of metal transport genes between N. caerulescens and A. halleri, which last shared a common ancestor > 40 mya, provides intriguing evidence that parallel evolutionary pathways may underlie Zn/Cd hyperaccumulation in Brassicaceae.

Expression of epitope-tagged LMW glutenin subunits in the starchy endosperm of transgenic wheat and their incorporation into glutenin polymers

The low-molecular-weight (LMW) glutenin subunits are components of the highly cross-linked glutenin polymers that confer viscoelastic properties to gluten and dough. They have both quantitative and qualitative effects on dough quality that may relate to differences in their ability to form the inter-chain disulphide bonds that stabilise the polymers. In order to determine the relationship between dough quality and the amounts and properties of the LMW subunits, we have transformed the pasta wheat cultivars Svevo and Ofanto with three genes encoding proteins, which differ in their numbers or positions of cysteine residues. The transgenes were delivered under control of the high-molecular-weight (HMW) subunit 1Dx5 gene promoter and terminator regions, and the encoded proteins were C-terminally tagged by the introduction of the c-myc epitope. Stable transformants were obtained with both cultivars, and the use of a specific antibody to the c-myc epitope tag allowed the transgene products to be readily detected in the complex mixture of LMW subunits. A range of transgene expression levels was observed. The addition of the epitope tag did not compromise the correct folding of the trangenic subunits and their incorporation into the glutenin polymers. Our results demonstrate that the ability to specifically epitope-tag LMW glutenin transgenes can greatly assist in the elucidation of their individual contributions to the functionality of the complex gluten system.

Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2–6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upper- and lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper- and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30 and 60 % of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper- and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions.

Estimates of global multicomponent aerosol optical depth and direct radiative perturbation in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model

The global cycle of multicomponent aerosols including sulfate, black carbon (BC),organic matter (OM), mineral dust, and sea salt is simulated in the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique general circulation model (LMDZT GCM). The seasonal open biomass burning emissions for simulation years 2000–2001 are scaled from climatological emissions in proportion to satellite detected fire counts. The emissions of dust and sea salt are parameterized online in the model. The comparison of model-predicted monthly mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) shows good agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.57(N = 1324) and 76% of data points falling within a factor of 2 deviation. The correlation coefficient for daily mean values drops to 0.49 (N = 23,680). The absorption AOD (ta at 670 nm) estimated in the model is poorly correlated with measurements (r = 0.27, N = 349). It is biased low by 24% as compared to AERONET. The model reproduces the prominent features in the monthly mean AOD retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The agreement between the model and MODIS is better over source and outflow regions (i.e., within a factor of 2).There is an underestimation of the model by up to a factor of 3 to 5 over some remote oceans. The largest contribution to global annual average AOD (0.12 at 550 nm) is from sulfate (0.043 or 35%), followed by sea salt (0.027 or 23%), dust (0.026 or 22%),OM (0.021 or 17%), and BC (0.004 or 3%). The atmospheric aerosol absorption is predominantly contributed by BC and is about 3% of the total AOD. The globally and annually averaged shortwave (SW) direct aerosol radiative perturbation (DARP) in clear-sky conditions is �2.17 Wm�2 and is about a factor of 2 larger than in all-sky conditions (�1.04 Wm�2). The net DARP (SW + LW) by all aerosols is �1.46 and �0.59 Wm�2 in clear- and all-sky conditions, respectively. Use of realistic, less absorbing in SW, optical properties for dust results in negative forcing over the dust-dominated regions.

Anhedonia and reward-circuit connectivity distinguish nonresponders from responders to dorsomedial prefrontal rTMS in major depression

Background Depression is a heterogeneous mental illness. Neurostimulation treatments, by targeting specific nodes within the brain’s emotion-regulation network, may be useful both as therapies and as probes for identifying clinically relevant depression subtypes. Methods Here, we applied 20 sessions of magnetic resonance imaging-guided repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in 47 unipolar or bipolar patients with a medication-resistant major depressive episode. Results Treatment response was strongly bimodal, with individual patients showing either minimal or marked improvement. Compared with responders, nonresponders showed markedly higher baseline anhedonia symptomatology (including pessimism, loss of pleasure, and loss of interest in previously enjoyed activities) on item-by-item examination of Beck Depression Inventory-II and Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology ratings. Congruently, on baseline functional magnetic resonance imaging, nonresponders showed significantly lower connectivity through a classical reward pathway comprising ventral tegmental area, striatum, and a region in ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Responders and nonresponders also showed opposite patterns of hemispheric lateralization in the connectivity of dorsomedial and dorsolateral regions to this same ventromedial region. Conclusions The results suggest distinct depression subtypes, one with preserved hedonic function and responsive to dorsomedial rTMS and another with disrupted hedonic function, abnormally lateralized connectivity through ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and unresponsive to dorsomedial rTMS. Future research directly comparing the effects of rTMS at different targets, guided by neuroimaging and clinical presentation, may clarify whether hedonia/reward circuit integrity is a reliable marker for optimizing rTMS target selection.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report—Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.

Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations

Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (308S–308N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ;3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warmpool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.