The dose rate debate: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose?

This paper reviews the evidence relating to the question: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose? The development of fungicide resistance progresses through three key phases. During the ‘emergence phase’ the resistant strain has to arise through mutation and invasion. During the subsequent ‘selection phase’, the resistant strain is present in the pathogen population and the fraction of the pathogen population carrying the resistance increases due to the selection pressure caused by the fungicide. During the final phase of ‘adjustment’, the dose or choice of fungicide may need to be changed to maintain effective control over a pathogen population where resistance has developed to intermediate levels. Emergence phase: no experimental publications and only one model study report on the emergence phase, and we conclude that work in this area is needed. Selection phase: all the published experimental work, and virtually all model studies, relate to the selection phase. Seven peer reviewed and four non-peer reviewed publications report experimental evidence. All show increased selection for fungicide resistance with increased fungicide dose, except for one peer reviewed publication that does not detect any selection irrespective of dose and one conference proceedings publication which claims evidence for increased selection at a lower dose. In the mathematical models published, no evidence has been found that a lower dose could lead to a higher risk of fungicide resistance selection. We discuss areas of the dose rate debate that need further study. These include further work on pathogen-fungicide combinations where the pathogen develops partial resistance to the fungicide and work on the emergence phase.

Miniature transposable sequences are frequently mobilized in the bacterial plant pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola

Mobile genetic elements are widespread in Pseudomonas syringae, and often associate with virulence genes. Genome reannotation of the model bean pathogen P. syringae pv. phaseolicola 1448A identified seventeen types of insertion sequences and two miniature inverted-repeat transposable elements (MITEs) with a biased distribution, representing 2.8% of the chromosome, 25.8% of the 132-kb virulence plasmid and 2.7% of the 52-kb plasmid. Employing an entrapment vector containing sacB, we estimated that transposition frequency oscillated between 2.661025 and 1.161026, depending on the clone, although it was stable for each clone after consecutive transfers in culture media. Transposition frequency was similar for bacteria grown in rich or minimal media, and from cells recovered from compatible and incompatible plant hosts, indicating that growth conditions do not influence transposition in strain 1448A. Most of the entrapped insertions contained a full-length IS801 element, with the remaining insertions corresponding to sequences smaller than any transposable element identified in strain 1448A, and collectively identified as miniature sequences. From these, fragments of 229, 360 and 679-nt of the right end of IS801 ended in a consensus tetranucleotide and likely resulted from one-ended transposition of IS801. An average 0.7% of the insertions analyzed consisted of IS801 carrying a fragment of variable size from gene PSPPH_0008/PSPPH_0017, showing that IS801 can mobilize DNA in vivo. Retrospective analysis of complete plasmids and genomes of P. syringae suggests, however, that most fragments of IS801 are likely the result of reorganizations rather than one-ended transpositions, and that this element might preferentially contribute to genome flexibility by generating homologous regions of recombination. A further miniature sequence previously found to affect host range specificity and virulence, designated MITEPsy1 (100-nt), represented an average 2.4% of the total number of insertions entrapped in sacB, demonstrating for the first time the mobilization of a MITE in bacteria.

Time of emergence of climate signals

The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.

The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account

The paper reviews the leading diagramming methods employed in system dynamics to communicate the contents of models. The main ideas and historical development of the field are first outlined. Two diagramming methods—causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and stock/flow diagrams (SFDs)—are then described and their advantages and limitations discussed. A set of broad research directions is then outlined. These concern: the abilities of different diagrams to communicate different ideas, the role that diagrams have in group model building, and the question of whether diagrams can be an adequate substitute for simulation modelling. The paper closes by suggesting that although diagrams alone are insufficient, they have many benefits. However, since these benefits have emerged only as ‘craft wisdom’, a more rigorous programme of research into the diagrams' respective attributes is called for.

Climate change and the emergence of new organizational landscapes

There is general agreement across the world that human-made climate change is a serious global problem,although there are still some sceptics who challenge this view. Research in organization studies on the topic is relatively new. Much of this research, however, is instrumental and managerialist in its focus on ‘win-win’ opportunities for business or its treatment of climate change as just another corporate social responsibility (CSR) exercise. In this paper, we suggest that climate change is not just an environmental problem requiring technical and managerial solutions; it is a political issue where a variety of organizations – state agencies, firms, industry associations, NGOs and multilateral organizations – engage in contestation as well as collaboration over the issue. We discuss the strategic, institutional and political economy dimensions of climate change and develop a socioeconomic regimes approach as a synthesis of these different theoretical perspectives. Given the urgency of the problem and the need for a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy, there is a pressing need for organization scholars to develop a better understanding of apathy and inertia in the face of the current crisis and to identify paths toward transformative change. The seven papers in this special issue address these areas of research and examine strategies, discourses, identities and practices in relation to climate change at multiple levels.

Interaction with avian cells and colonisation of specific pathogen free chicks by Shiga-toxin negative Escherichia coli O157:H7 (NCTC 12900)

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection in birds is low but several deliberate inoculation studies show that poultry are readily and persistently infected by this organism indicating a possible threat to public health. The mechanisms of colonisation of poultry are not understood and the aim is to establish models to study the interaction of E. coli O157:H7, at the cellular and whole animal levels. A non-toxigenic E. coli O157:H7 (NCTC 12900) was used in adherence assays with an avian epithelial cell line (Div-1) and used to inoculate 1-day-old SPF chicks. In vitro, NCTC 12900 induced micro-colonies associated with cytoskeletal arrangements and pedestal formation with intimate bacterial attachment. In the 1-day-old SPF chick, a dose of 1 x 10(5) cfu resulted in rapid and extensive colonisation of the gastrointestinal tract and transient colonisation of the liver and spleen. The number of E. coli O157:H7 organisms attained approximately 10(8) cfu/ml caecal homogenate 24 h after inoculation and approximately 10(7) cfu/ml caecal homogenate was still present at day 92. Faecal shedding persisted for 169 days, ceasing 9 days after the birds came into lay and 6% of eggs were contaminated on the eggshell. Histological analysis of tissue samples from birds dosed with 1 x 10(7) cfu gave evidence for E coli O157:H7 NCTC 12900 induced micro-colonies on the caecal mucosa, although evidence for attaching effacing lesions was equivocal. These models may be suitable to study those factors of E. coli O157:H7 that mediate persistent colonisation in avian species.

Emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in the native Campylobacter coli population of pigs exposed to enrofloxacin

Objective: The effect of a single 5 day enrofloxacin treatment on the native Campylobacter coli population in conventionally weaned 5-week-old pigs was investigated. Materials: Twelve pigs were split into two groups of six: one group was treated with a therapeutic dose (15 mg/pig/day) of enrofloxacin and the other remained untreated to act as the control. Campylobacter coli were isolated from faecal samples and tested for ciprofloxacin resistance by measuring MIC values. Mutations in the quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of the gyrA gene of resistant isolates were identified by sequencing and denaturing HPLC. Levels of enrofloxacin and its primary metabolite ciprofloxacin in the pig faeces were also measured by HPLC. Results: No quinolone-resistant C. coli (n = 867) were detected in any of the pigs prior to treatment, indicating <0.1% resistance in the group. Resistant C. coli were isolated from pigs for up to 35 days after treatment with a therapeutic dose. These resistant C. coli had MIC values of 128 mg/L and 8-16 mg/L for nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, respectively, and the same single point mutation causing a Thr-86 to Ile substitution in the QRDR was identified in each. The concentration of enrofloxacin in the pig faeces was 2-4 mug/g faeces for the duration of the 5 day therapeutic treatment and was detected up to 10 days post-treatment. Ciprofloxacin was also measured and peaked at 0.6 mug/g faeces in the treated group. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that a single course of enrofloxacin treatment contributes directly to the emergence and persistence of fluoroquinolone resistance in C. coli.

Role for flagella but not intimin in the persistent infection of the gastrointestinal tissues of specific-pathogen-free chicks by Shiga toxin-negative Escherichia coli O157:H7

Shiga toxin (Stx)-positive Escherichia coli O157:117 readily colonize and persist in specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chicks, and we have shown that an Stx-negative E. coli O157:117 isolate (NCTC12900) readily colonizes SPF chicks for up to 169 days after oral inoculation at 1 day of age. However, the role of intimin in the persistent colonization of poultry remains unclear. Thus, to investigate the role of intimin and flagella, which is a known factor in the persistence of non-O157 E. coli in poultry, isogenic single- and double-intimin and aflagellar mutants were constructed in E. coli O157:117 isolate NCTC12900. These mutants were used to inoculate (10(5) CFU) 1-day-old SPF chicks. In general, significant attenuation of the aflagellate and intiminaflagellate mutants, but not the intimin mutant, was noted at similar time points between 22 and 92 days after inoculation. The intimin-deficient mutant was still being shed at the end of the experiment, which was 211 days after inoculation, 84 days more than the wild type. Shedding of the aflagellar and intimin-aflagellar mutants ceased 99 and 113 days after inoculation, respectively. Histological analysis of gastrointestinal tissues from inoculated birds gave no evidence for true microcolony formation by NCTC12900 or intimin and aflagellar mutants to epithelial cells. However, NCTC12900 mutant derivatives associated with the mucosa were observed as individual cells and/or as large aggregates. Association with luminal contents was also noted. These data suggest that O157 organisms do not require intimin for the persistent colonization of chickens, whereas flagella do play a role in this process.

Effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig

Aim: To assess the effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig. Methods and Results: Pigs ( treated with avilamycin for 3 months and controls) were challenged with multiresistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 and faecal counts were performed for enterococci, Escherichia coli, S. Typhimurium and Campylobacter ( before, during and 5 weeks post-treatment). Representative isolates were tested for antibiotic resistance and for the presence of resistance genes. Avilamycin-resistant Enterococci faecalis (speciated by PCR) were isolated from the treated pigs and continued to be detected for the first week after treatment had ceased. The avilamycin- resistance gene was characterized by PCR as the emtA gene and speciation by PCR. MIC profiling confirmed that more than one strain of Ent. faecalis carried this gene. There was no evidence of increased antimicrobial resistance in the E. coli, Salmonella and Campylobacter populations, although there was a higher incidence of tetB positive E. coli in the treated pigs than the controls. Conclusion: Although avilamycin selects for resistance in the native enterococci population of the pig, no resistant isolates were detected beyond 1 week post-treatment. This suggests that resistant isolates were unable to persist once selective pressure was removed and were out-competed by the sensitive microflora. Significance and Impact of the Study: Our data suggest the risk of resistant isolates becoming carcass contaminants and infecting humans could be minimized by introducing a withdrawal period after using avilamycin and prior to slaughter.

Military competition and the emergence of nationalism: putting the logic of political survival into historical context

This essay aims to make a contribution to the conversation between IR and nationalism literatures by considering a particular question: What is the relationship between interstate military competition and the emergence of nationalism as a potent force in world politics? The conventional wisdom among international security scholars, especially neorealists, holds that nationalism can be more or less treated like a “technology” that allowed states to extract significant resources as well as manpower from their respective populations. This paper underlines some of the problems involved with this perspective and pushes forward an interpretation that is based on the logic of political survival. I argue that nationalism’s emergence as a powerful force in world politics followed from the “mutation” and absorption of the universalistic/cosmopolitan republican ideas that gained temporary primacy in Europe during the eighteenth century into particularistic nationalist ideologies. This transformation, in turn, can be best explained by the French Revolution’s dramatic impacts on rulers’ political survival calculi vis-à-vis both interstate and domestic political challenges. The analysis offered in this essay contributes to our understanding of the relationship between IR and nationalism while also highlighting the potential value of the political survival framework for exploring macrohistorical puzzles.

Emergence of a small-world functional network in cultured neurons

The functional networks of cultured neurons exhibit complex network properties similar to those found in vivo. Starting from random seeding, cultures undergo significant reorganization during the initial period in vitro, yet despite providing an ideal platform for observing developmental changes in neuronal connectivity, little is known about how a complex functional network evolves from isolated neurons. In the present study, evolution of functional connectivity was estimated from correlations of spontaneous activity. Network properties were quantified using complex measures from graph theory and used to compare cultures at different stages of development during the first 5 weeks in vitro. Networks obtained from young cultures (14 days in vitro) exhibited a random topology, which evolved to a small-world topology during maturation. The topology change was accompanied by an increased presence of highly connected areas (hubs) and network efficiency increased with age. The small-world topology balances integration of network areas with segregation of specialized processing units. The emergence of such network structure in cultured neurons, despite a lack of external input, points to complex intrinsic biological mechanisms. Moreover, the functional network of cultures at mature ages is efficient and highly suited to complex processing tasks.

A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton: emergence in space and time

In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity—a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water.