Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Spatial econometric issues for bio-economic and land-use modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio-economic and land-use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site-specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.

Evaluating the role of environmental quality in the sustainable rural economic development of England

The issue of the sustainable development of rural economies in England has recently received considerable attention. This is because many of the poorest areas in the country are rural, often of high environmental quality, but suffering from high unemployment and a lack of services and facilities. The rapid decline in agricultural incomes and in-migration of affluent urban workers since 1990 has exacerbated economic inequality in such areas. A number of factors have the potential to drive rural development and this paper applies, and considers, the feasibility of a method from the USA for combining economic and environmental variables in a regional growth model to examine the hypothesis that environmental quality is an important determinant of sustainable rural development in England. The model output suggests that, although environmental quality does play a role in sustainable rural development in England there are other, more important, factors driving development. These include business and communications infra-structure, the degree and opportunities for commuting and underlying employment prospects. The robustness and limitations of the method for combining economic and environmental variables is discussed in relation to the spatial interrelatedness of Local Authority Districts in England, and conclusions are drawn about areas for refinement and improvement of the method.

The correlation structure of spatial autoregressions

This paper investigates how the correlations implied by a first-order simultaneous autoregressive (SAR(1)) process are affected by the weights matrix and the autocorrelation parameter. A graph theoretic representation of the covariances in terms of walks connecting the spatial units helps to clarify a number of correlation properties of the processes. In particular, we study some implications of row-standardizing the weights matrix, the dependence of the correlations on graph distance, and the behavior of the correlations at the extremes of the parameter space. Throughout the analysis differences between directed and undirected networks are emphasized. The graph theoretic representation also clarifies why it is difficult to relate properties ofW to correlation properties of SAR(1) models defined on irregular lattices.

Marine protected areas in artisanal fisheries: a spatial bio-economic model based on observations in Costa Rica and Tanzania

In many lower-income countries, the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) involves significant opportunity costs for artisanal fishers, reflected in changes in how they allocate their labor in response to the MPA. The resource economics literature rarely addresses such labor allocation decisions of artisanal fishers and how, in turn, these contribute to the impact of MPAs on fish stocks, yield, and income. This paper develops a spatial bio-economic model of a fishery adjacent to a village of people who allocate their labor between fishing and on-shore wage opportunities to establish a spatial Nash equilibrium at a steady state fish stock in response to various locations for no-take zone MPAs and managed access MPAs. Villagers’ fishing location decisions are based on distance costs, fishing returns, and wages. Here, the MPA location determines its impact on fish stocks, fish yield, and villager income due to distance costs, congestion, and fish dispersal. Incorporating wage labor opportunities into the framework allows examination of the MPA’s impact on rural incomes, with results determining that win-wins between yield and stocks occur in very different MPA locations than do win-wins between income and stocks. Similarly, villagers in a high-wage setting face a lower burden from MPAs than do those in low-wage settings. Motivated by issues of central importance in Tanzania and Costa Rica, we impose various policies on this fishery – location specific no-take zones, increasing on-shore wages, and restricting MPA access to a subset of villagers – to analyze the impact of an MPA on fish stocks and rural incomes in such settings.

Structure of turbulent flow over arrays of cubical roughness

The structure of turbulent flow over large roughness consisting of regular arrays of cubical obstacles is investigated numerically under constant pressure gradient conditions. Results are analysed in terms of first- and second-order statistics, by visualization of instantaneous flow fields and by conditional averaging. The accuracy of the simulations is established by detailed comparisons of first- and second-order statistics with wind-tunnel measurements. Coherent structures in the log region are investigated. Structure angles are computed from two-point correlations, and quadrant analysis is performed to determine the relative importance of Q2 and Q4 events (ejections and sweeps) as a function of height above the roughness. Flow visualization shows the existence of low-momentum regions (LMRs) as well as vortical structures throughout the log layer. Filtering techniques are used to reveal instantaneous examples of the association of the vortices with the LMRs, and linear stochastic estimation and conditional averaging are employed to deduce their statistical properties. The conditional averaging results reveal the presence of LMRs and regions of Q2 and Q4 events that appear to be associated with hairpin-like vortices, but a quantitative correspondence between the sizes of the vortices and those of the LMRs is difficult to establish; a simple estimate of the ratio of the vortex width to the LMR width gives a value that is several times larger than the corresponding ratio over smooth walls. The shape and inclination of the vortices and their spatial organization are compared to recent findings over smooth walls. Characteristic length scales are shown to scale linearly with height in the log region. Whilst there are striking qualitative similarities with smooth walls, there are also important differences in detail regarding: (i) structure angles and sizes and their dependence on distance from the rough surface; (ii) the flow structure close to the roughness; (iii) the roles of inflows into and outflows from cavities within the roughness; (iv) larger vortices on the rough wall compared to the smooth wall; (v) the effect of the different generation mechanism at the wall in setting the scales of structures.

Simulating the spatial variation of soil mineral N within fields using the model SUNDIAL

Variable rate applications of nitrogen (N) are of environmental and economic interest. Regular measurements of soil N supply are difficult to achieve practically. Therefore accurate model simulations of soil N supply might provide a practical solution for site-specific management of N. Mineral N, an estimate of N supply, was simulated by the model SUNDIAL (Simulation of Nitrogen Dynamics In Arable Land) at more than 100 locations within three arable fields in Bedfordshire, UK. The results were compared with actual measurements. The outcomes showed that the spatial patterns of the simulations of mineral N corresponded to the measurements but the range of values was underestimated.

Spatial and temporal scale issues in determining biomass burning regimes in Bolivia and Peru

ATSR-2 active fire data from 1996 to 2000, TRMM VIRS fire counts from 1998 to 2000 and burn scars derived from SPOT VEGETATION ( the Global Burnt Area 2000 product) were mapped for Peru and Bolivia to analyse the spatial distribution of burning and its intra- and inter-annual variability. The fire season in the region mainly occurs between May and October; though some variation was found between the six broad habitat types analysed: desert, grassland, savanna, dry forest, moist forest and yungas (the forested valleys on the eastern slope of the Andes). Increased levels of burning were generally recorded in ATSR-2 and TRMM VIRS fire data in response to the 1997/1998 El Nino, but in some areas the El Nino effect was masked by the more marked influences of socio-economic change on land use and land cover. There were differences between the three global datasets: ATSR-2 under-recorded fires in ecosystems with low net primary productivities. This was because fires are set during the day in this region and, when fuel loads are low, burn out before the ATSR-2 overpass in the region which is between 02.45 h and 03.30 h. TRMM VIRS was able to detect these fires because its overpasses cover the entire diurnal range on a monthly basis. The GBA2000 product has significant errors of commission (particularly areas of shadow in the well-dissected eastern Andes) and omission (in the agricultural zone around Santa Cruz, Bolivia and in north-west Peru). Particular attention was paid to biomass burning in high-altitude grasslands, where fire is an important pastoral management technique. Fires and burn scars from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data for a range of years between 1987 and 2000 were mapped for areas around Parque Nacional Rio Abiseo (Peru) and Parque Nacional Carrasco (Bolivia). Burn scars mapped in the grasslands of these two areas indicate far more burning had taken place than either the fires or the burn scars derived from global datasets. Mean scar sizes are smaller and have a smaller range in size between years the in the study area in Peru (6.6-7.1 ha) than Bolivia (16.9-162.5 ha). Trends in biomass burning in the two highland areas can be explained in terms of the changing socio-economic environments and impacts of conservation. The mismatch between the spatial scale of biomass burning in the high-altitude grasslands and the sensors used to derive global fire products means that an entire component of the fire regime in the region studied is omitted, despite its importance in the farming systems on the Andes.

Evidence for an apartheid-like social structure in early Anglo-Saxon England

The role of migration in the Anglo-Saxon transition in England remains controversial. Archaeological and historical evidence is inconclusive, but current estimates of the contribution of migrants to the English population range from less than 10 000 to as many as 200 000. In contrast, recent studies based on Y-chromosome variation posit a considerably higher contribution to the modern English gene pool (50-100%). Historical evidence suggests that following the Anglo-Saxon transition, people of indigenous ethnicity were at an economic and legal disadvantage compared to those having Anglo-Saxon ethnicity. It is likely that such a disadvantage would lead to differential reproductive success. We examine the effect of differential reproductive success, coupled with limited intermarriage between distinct ethnic groups, on the spread of genetic variants. Computer simulations indicate that a social structure limiting intermarriage between indigenous Britons and an initially small Anglo-Saxon immigrant population provide a plausible explanation of the high degree of Continental male-line ancestry in England.

The accuracy of using the Ulysses result of the spatial invariance of the radial heliospheric field to compute the open solar flux

We survey observations of the radial magnetic field in the heliosphere as a function of position, sunspot number, and sunspot cycle phase. We show that most of the differences between pairs of simultaneous observations, normalized using the square of the heliocentric distance and averaged over solar rotations, are consistent with the kinematic "flux excess" effect whereby the radial component of the frozen-in heliospheric field is increased by longitudinal solar wind speed structure. In particular, the survey shows that, as expected, the flux excess effect at high latitudes is almost completely absent during sunspot minimum but is almost the same as within the streamer belt at sunspot maximum. We study the uncertainty inherent in the use of the Ulysses result that the radial field is independent of heliographic latitude in the computation of the total open solar flux: we show that after the kinematic correction for the excess flux effect has been made it causes errors that are smaller than 4.5%, with a most likely value of 2.5%. The importance of this result for understanding temporal evolution of the open solar flux is reviewed.

The Structure and implications of children's attitudes to school

The paper reports a study of children's attitudes to school based on a questionnaire survey of 845 pupils in their first year of secondary school in England, together with interviews with a sample of the children. A clearly structured set of attitudes emerged from a factor analysis which showed a distinction between instrumental and affective aspects of attitudes but also dimensions within these, including a sense of teacher commitment and school as a difficult environment. Virtually all children had a strong sense of the importance of doing well at school. However, a substantial minority were not sure that they would stay on after 16. There were few differences between boys and girls or between children from different socio-economic backgrounds but children planning to leave at 16 enjoyed school less and were less sure that it had anything to offer them. There was an almost universal commitment to the value of education but, for a minority, an ambivalence about the experience and relevance of schooling for them.

Influence of agricultural management, sward structure and food resources on grassland field use by birds in lowland England.

Agricultural management of grassland in lowland Britain has changed fundamentally in the last 50 years, resulting in spatial and structural uniformity within the pastoral landscape. The full extent to which these changes may have reduced the suitability of grassland as foraging habitat for birds is unknown. This study investigated the mechanisms by which these changes have impacted on birds and their food supplies. We quantified field use by birds in summer and winter in two grassland areas of lowland England (Devon and Buckinghamshire) over 3 years, relating bird occurrence to the management, sward structure and seed and invertebrate food resources of individual fields. Management intensity was defined in terms of annual nitrogen input. There was no consistent effect of management intensity on total seed head production, although those of grasses generally increased with inputs while forbs were rare throughout. Relationships between management intensity and abundance of soil and epigeal invertebrates were complex. Soil beetle larvae were consistently lower in abundance, and surface-active beetle larvae counts consistently higher, in intensively managed fields. Foliar invertebrates showed more consistent negatively relationships with management intensity. Most bird species occurred at low densities. There were consistent relationships across regions and years between the occurrence of birds and measures of field management. In winter, there was a tendency towards higher occupancy of intensively managed fields by species feeding on soil invertebrates. In summer, there were few such relationships, although many species avoided fields with tall swards. Use of fields by birds was generally not related to measures of seed or invertebrate food abundance. While granivorous species were perhaps too rare to detect a relationship, in insectivores the strong negative relationships (in summer) with sward height suggested that access to food may be the critical factor. While it appears that intensification of grassland management has been deleterious to the summer food resources of insectivorous birds that use insects living within the grass sward, intensification may have been beneficial to several species in winter through the enhancement of soil invertebrates. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that attempts to restore habitat quality for birds in grassland landscapes need to create a range of management intensities and sward structures at the field and farm scales. A greater understanding of methods to enhance prey accessibility, as well as abundance, for insectivorous birds is required.

Influence of socio-economic and cultural factors in rice varietal diversity management on-farm in Nepal

A questionnaire survey of 408 households explored the role of socio-economic and cultural factors in rice (Oryza sativa L.) varietal diversity management on-farm in two contrasting eco-sites in Nepal. Multiple regression outputs suggest that number of parcels of land, livestock number, number of rice ecosystems, agro-ecology (altitude), and use of chemical fertilizer have a significant positive influence on landrace diversity on-farm, while membership in farmers' groups linked to extension services has significant but negative influence on landrace diversity. Factors with significant positive influence on diversity of modern varieties on-farm were number of parcels of land and of rice ecosystems, access to irrigation, membership in farmers' groups, and use of insecticide. Within communities, resource-endowed households maintain significantly higher varietal diversity on-farm than resource-poor households and play a significant role in conserving landraces that are vulnerable to genetic erosion and those with socio-cultural and market-preferred traits. Resource-poor households also contribute to local diversity conservation but at lower richness and area coverage levels than resource-endowed households. Households where a female had assumed the role of head of household due to death or migrant work of her husband had less diversity due to lower labor availability. Landraces with socio-cultural and market-preferred traits are few in number but have potential to be conserved on-farm.

The population genetic structure of clonal organisms generated by exponentially bounded and fat-tailed dispersal

Long distance dispersal (LDD) plays an important role in many population processes like colonization, range expansion, and epidemics. LDD of small particles like fungal spores is often a result of turbulent wind dispersal and is best described by functions with power-law behavior in the tails ("fat tailed"). The influence of fat-tailed LDD on population genetic structure is reported in this article. In computer simulations, the population structure generated by power-law dispersal with exponents in the range of -2 to -1, in distinct contrast to that generated by exponential dispersal, has a fractal structure. As the power-law exponent becomes smaller, the distribution of individual genotypes becomes more self-similar at different scales. Common statistics like G(ST) are not well suited to summarizing differences between the population genetic structures. Instead, fractal and self-similarity statistics demonstrated differences in structure arising from fat-tailed and exponential dispersal. When dispersal is fat tailed, a log-log plot of the Simpson index against distance between subpopulations has an approximately constant gradient over a large range of spatial scales. The fractal dimension D-2 is linearly inversely related to the power-law exponent, with a slope of similar to -2. In a large simulation arena, fat-tailed LDD allows colonization of the entire space by all genotypes whereas exponentially bounded dispersal eventually confines all descendants of a single clonal lineage to a relatively small area.