How is open solar magnetic flux lost over the solar cycle?

The Sun's open magnetic field, magnetic flux dragged out into the heliosphere by the solar wind, varies by approximately a factor of 2 over the solar cycle. We consider the evolution of open solar flux in terms of a source and loss term. Open solar flux creation is likely to proceed at a rate dependent on the rate of photospheric flux emergence, which can be roughly parameterized by sunspot number or coronal mass ejection rate, when available. The open solar flux loss term is more difficult to relate to an observable parameter. The supersonic nature of the solar wind means open solar flux can only be removed by near-Sun magnetic reconnection between open solar magnetic field lines, be they open or closed heliospheric field lines. In this study we reconstruct open solar flux over the last three solar cycles and demonstrate that the loss term may be related to the degree to which the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is warped, i.e., locally tilted from the solar rotation direction. This can account for both the large dip in open solar flux at the time of sunspot maximum as well as the asymmetry in open solar flux during the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle. The observed cycle-to-cycle variability is also well matched. Following Sheeley et al. (2001), we attribute modulation of open solar flux by the degree of warp of the HCS to the rate at which opposite polarity open solar flux is brought together by differential rotation.

The changing atmospheric water cycle in polar regions in a warmer climate

We have examined the atmospheric water cycle of both Polar Regions, pole wards of 60°N and 60°S, using the ERA-Interim re-analysis and high-resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 model for both the present and future climate based on the IPCC, A1B scenario, representative of the last three decades of the 21st century. The annual precipitation in ERA-Interim amounts to ~17000 km3 and is more or less the same in the Arctic and the Antarctic, but it is composed differently. In the Arctic the annual evaporation is some 8000 km3 but some 3000 km3 less in the Antarctica where the net horizontal transport is correspondingly larger. The net water transport of the model is more intense than in ERA-Interim, in the Arctic the difference is 2.5% and in the Antarctic it is 6.2%. Precipitation and net horizontal transport in the Arctic has a maximum in August and September. Evaporation peaks in June and July. The seasonal cycle is similar in Antarctica with the highest precipitation in the austral autumn. The largest net transport occurs at the end of the major extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere such as the eastern Pacific and eastern north Atlantic. The variability of the model is virtually identical to that of the re-analysis and there are no changes in variability between the present climate and the climate at the end of the 21st century when normalized with the higher level of moisture. The changes from year to year are substantial with the 20 and 30-year records being generally too short to identify robust trends in the hydrological cycle. In the A1B climate scenario the strength of the water cycle increases by some 25% in the Arctic and by 19% in the Antarctica, as measured by annual precipitation. The increase in the net horizontal transport is 29% and 22% respectively, and the increase in evaporation correspondingly less. The net transport follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. There is 2 a minor change in the annual cycle of the Arctic atmospheric water cycle with the maximum transport and precipitation occurring later in the year. There is a small imbalance of some 4-6% between the net transport and precipitation minus evaporation. We suggest that this is mainly due to the fact the transport is calculated from instantaneous 6-hourly data while precipitation and evaporation is accumulated over a 6 hour period. The residual difference is proportionally similar for all experiments and hardly varies from year to year.

Case study on the whole life carbon cycle in buildings

Global temperatures are expected to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4oC this century, depending, to a large extent, on the amount of carbon we emit to the atmosphere from now onwards. This warming is expected to have very negative effects on many peoples and ecosystems and, therefore, minimising our carbon emissions is a priority. Buildings are estimated to be responsible for around 50% of carbon emissions in the UK. Potential reductions involve both operational emissions, produced during use, and embodied emissions, produced during manufacture of materials and components, and during construction, refurbishments and demolition. To date the major effort has focused on reducing the, apparently, larger operational element, which is more readily quantifiable and reduction measures are relatively straightforward to identify and implement. Various studies have compared the magnitude of embodied and operational emissions, but have shown considerable variation in the relative values. This illustrates the difficulties in quantifying embodied, as it requires a detailed knowledge of the processes involved in the different life cycle phases, and requires the use of consistent system boundaries. However, other studies have established the interaction between operational and embodied, which demonstrates the importance of considering both elements together in order to maximise potential reductions. This is borne out in statements from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and The Low Carbon Construction Innovation and Growth Team of the UK Government. In terms of meeting the 2020 and 2050 timeframes for carbon reductions it appears to be equally, if not more, important to consider early embodied carbon reductions, rather than just future operational reductions. Future decarbonisation of energy supply and more efficient lighting and M&E equipment installed in future refits is likely to significantly reduce operational emissions, lending further weight to this argument. A method of discounting to evaluate the present value of future carbon emissions would allow more realistic comparisons to be made on the relative importance of the embodied and operational elements. This paper describes the results of case studies on carbon emissions over the whole lifecycle of three buildings in the UK, compares four available software packages for determining embodied carbon and suggests a method of carbon discounting to obtain present values for future emissions. These form the initial stages of a research project aimed at producing information on embodied carbon for different types of building, components and forms of construction, in a simplified form, which can be readily used by building designers in optimising building design in terms of minimising overall carbon emissions. Keywords: Embodied carbon; carbon emission; building; operational carbon.

The diurnal cycle in the tropics

A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude–longitude grid) window (11–12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land–sea and mountain–valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth's orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings.

The influence of Langmuir turbulence on the scaling for the dissipation rate in the oceanic boundary layer

A model for estimating the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in the oceanic boundary layer, based on insights from rapid-distortion theory, is presented and tested. This model provides a possible explanation for the very high dissipation levels found by numerous authors near the surface. It is conceived that turbulence, injected into the water by breaking waves, is subsequently amplified due to its distortion by the mean shear of the wind-induced current and straining by the Stokes drift of surface waves. The partition of the turbulent shear stress into a shear-induced part and a wave-induced part is taken into account. In this picture, dissipation enhancement results from the same mechanism responsible for Langmuir circulations. Apart from a dimensionless depth and an eddy turn-over time, the dimensionless dissipation rate depends on the wave slope and wave age, which may be encapsulated in the turbulent Langmuir number La_t. For large La_t, or any Lat but large depth, the dissipation rate tends to the usual surface layer scaling, whereas when Lat is small, it is strongly enhanced near the surface, growing asymptotically as ɛ ∝ La_t^{-2} when La_t → 0. Results from this model are compared with observations from the WAVES and SWADE data sets, assuming that this is the dominant dissipation mechanism acting in the ocean surface layer and statistical measures of the corresponding fit indicate a substantial improvement over previous theoretical models. Comparisons are also carried out against more recent measurements, showing good order-of-magnitude agreement, even when shallow-water effects are important.

Aligning asset allocation and real estate investment: some lessons from the last cycle

Asset allocation is concerned with the development of multi--‐asset portfolio strategies that are likely to meet an investor’s objectives based on the interaction of expected returns, risk, correlation and implementation from a range of distinct asset classes or beta sources. Challenges associated with the discipline are often particularly significant in private markets. Specifically, composition differences between the ‘index’ or ‘benchmark’ universe and the investible universe mean that there can often be substantial and meaningful deviations between the investment characteristics implied in asset allocation decisions and those delivered by investment teams. For example, while allocation decisions are often based on relatively low--‐risk diversified real estate ‘equity’ exposure, implementation decisions frequently include exposure to higher risk forms of the asset class as well as investments in debt based instruments. These differences can have a meaningful impact on the contribution of the asset class to the overall portfolio and, therefore, lead to a potential misalignment between asset allocation decisions and implementation. Despite this, the key conclusion from this paper is not that real estate investors should become slaves to a narrowly defined mandate based on IPD / NCREIF or other forms of benchmark replication. The discussion suggests that such an approach would likely lead to the underutilization of real estate in multi--‐asset portfolio strategies. Instead, it is that to achieve asset allocation alignment, real estate exposure should be divided into multiple pools representing distinct forms of the asset class. In addition, the paper suggests that associated investment guidelines and processes should be collaborative and reflect the portfolio wide asset allocation objectives of each pool. Further, where appropriate they should specifically target potential for ‘additional’ beta or, more marginally, ‘alpha’.

The expression of the end-Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 2) in the Helvetic Alps

Upper Cenomanian pelagic sediments from the northern Alpine Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt (northern Tethyan margin) coeval with Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 2 are characterized by the temporal persistence of micrite sedimentation and lack of organic carbon-rich layers. We studied an expanded section in the Chrummflueschlucht (east of Euthal, Switzerland), which encompasses the OAE 2 time interval. In order to identify the paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions during OAE 2 in this part of the northern Tethyan margin, and more specifically to trace eventual changes in nutrient levels and oxic conditions, we investigated the biostratigraphy (planktonic foraminifera), the bulk-rock mineralogy, and measured stable carbon- and oxygen-isotopes, total phosphorus (P) and redox-sensitive trace-element (RSTE) contents. We were able to determine – with some remaining uncertainties – the different planktonic foraminiferal biozones characteristic of the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval (Rotalipora cushmani, Whiteinella archaeocretacea and Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica zones). In the lower part of the section (R. cushmani total range zone), the bulk-rock δ13C record shows a long-term increase. Within sediments attributed to the W. archaeocretacea partial range zone, δ13C values reach a maximum of 3.3‰ (peak “a”). In the following the values decrease and increase again to arrive at a plateau with high δ13C values of around 3.1‰, which ends with a peak of 3.3‰ (peak “c”). At the top of the section, in sediments belonging to the H. helvetica total range zone, δ13C values decrease to post-OAE values of around 2.2‰. The last occurrence of R. cushmani is observed just above the positive δ13C shift characterizing OAE 2. P contents display small variations along the section with a long-term decreasing trend towards the top. Before the OAE 2 interval, P values show higher values and relatively good covariation with detrital input, indicating higher nutrient input before OAE 2. In sediments corresponding to the onset of the δ13C positive excursion, P content is marked by a sharp peak probably linked to a slowdown in sedimentation rates and/or the presence of a small hiatus, as is shown by the presence of glauconite and phosphatic grains. In the interval corresponding to OAE 2, P values remain low and increase slightly at the end of the positive shift in the δ13C record (in the H. helvetica total range zone). The average contents of RSTE (U, V, As, Co, Mo and Mn) remain low throughout the section and appreciable RSTE enrichments have not been observed for the sedimentary interval corresponding to OAE 2. No correlation is observed with stratigraphic trends in RSTE contents in organic-rich deeper-water sections. The presence of double-keeled planktonic foraminifera species during most of the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary event is another evidence of relatively well-oxygenated conditions in this part of the northern Tethyan outer shelf. Our results show that the Chrummflueschlucht section corresponds to one of the most complete section for the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval known from the Helvetic realm even if a small hiatus may be present at the onset of the δ13C record (peak “a”). The evolution of P contents suggests an increase in input of this nutritive element at the onset of OAE2. However, the trends in RSTE contents and the planktonic foraminifera assemblages show that the Helvetic realm has not been affected by strongly depleted oxygen conditions during OAE 2.

Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius­Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-­3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.