Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures

Observations suggest a possible link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with the warm AMO phase being related to weaker ENSO variability. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate this relationship and to elucidate mechanisms responsible for it. Anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the positive AMO lead to change in the basic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This basic state change is associated with a deepened thermocline and reduced vertical stratification of the equatorial Pacific ocean, which in turn leads to weakened ENSO variability. We suggest a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific. The results suggest a non-local mechanism for changes in ENSO statistics and imply that anomalous Atlantic ocean SSTs can modulate both mean climate and climate variability over the Pacific.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

A simple relationship between volcanic sulfate aerosol optical depth and surface temperature change simulated in an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.

In this study we quantify the relationship between the aerosol optical depth increase from a volcanic eruption and the severity of the subsequent surface temperature decrease. This investigation is made by simulating 10 different sizes of eruption in a global circulation model (GCM) by changing stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth at each time step. The sizes of the simulated eruptions range from Pinatubo‐sized up to the magnitude of supervolcanic eruptions around 100 times the size of Pinatubo. From these simulations we find that there is a smooth monotonic relationship between the global mean maximum aerosol optical depth anomaly and the global mean temperature anomaly and we derive a simple mathematical expression which fits this relationship well. We also construct similar relationships between global mean aerosol optical depth and the temperature anomaly at every individual model grid box to produce global maps of best‐fit coefficients and fit residuals. These maps are used with caution to find the eruption size at which a local temperature anomaly is clearly distinct from the local natural variability and to approximate the temperature anomalies which the model may simulate following a Tambora‐sized eruption. To our knowledge, this is the first study which quantifies the relationship between aerosol optical depth and resulting temperature anomalies in a simple way, using the wealth of data that is available from GCM simulations.

On the distortion of turbulence by a progressive surface wave

A rapid-distortion model is developed to investigate the interaction of weak turbulence with a monochromatic irrotational surface water wave. The model is applicable when the orbital velocity of the wave is larger than the turbulence intensity, and when the slope of the wave is sufficiently high that the straining of the turbulence by the wave dominates over the straining of the turbulence by itself. The turbulence suffers two distortions. Firstly, vorticity in the turbulence is modulated by the wave orbital motions, which leads to the streamwise Reynolds stress attaining maxima at the wave crests and minima at the wave troughs; the Reynolds stress normal to the free surface develops minima at the wave crests and maxima at the troughs. Secondly, over several wave cycles the Stokes drift associated with the wave tilts vertical vorticity into the horizontal direction, subsequently stretching it into elongated streamwise vortices, which come to dominate the flow. These results are shown to be strikingly different from turbulence distorted by a mean shear flow, when `streaky structures' of high and low streamwise velocity fluctuations develop. It is shown that, in the case of distortion by a mean shear flow, the tendency for the mean shear to produce streamwise vortices by distortion of the turbulent vorticity is largely cancelled by a distortion of the mean vorticity by the turbulent fluctuations. This latter process is absent in distortion by Stokes drift, since there is then no mean vorticity. The components of the Reynolds stress and the integral length scales computed from turbulence distorted by Stokes drift show the same behaviour as in the simulations of Langmuir turbulence reported by McWilliams, Sullivan & Moeng (1997). Hence we suggest that turbulent vorticity in the upper ocean, such as produced by breaking waves, may help to provide the initial seeds for Langmuir circulations, thereby complementing the shear-flow instability mechanism developed by Craik & Leibovich (1976). The tilting of the vertical vorticity into the horizontal by the Stokes drift tends also to produce a shear stress that does work against the mean straining associated with the wave orbital motions. The turbulent kinetic energy then increases at the expense of energy in the wave. Hence the wave decays. An expression for the wave attenuation rate is obtained by scaling the equation for the wave energy, and is found to be broadly consistent with available laboratory data.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

The role of baroclinic waves in the initiation of tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean

Cases where tropical storms are initiated simultaneously along one latitude are investigated. It is argued that such structure arises as part of a baroclinic wave. A case from February 2008 is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses; the birth of three tropical cyclones in the low-level cyclonic regions to the east of upper-level troughs suggests that the wave was instrumental for initiation. Archived satellite imagery and storm warnings reveal that baroclinic waves over the southern Indian Ocean accompany tropical cyclogenesis twice a season on average, mainly in late summer, when breaking Rossby waves on the subtropical westerly jet are closest to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

The vertical structure of oceanic Rossby waves: a comparison of high-resolution model data to theoretical vertical structures

Tests of the new Rossby wave theories that have been developed over the past decade to account for discrepancies between theoretical wave speeds and those observed by satellite altimeters have focused primarily on the surface signature of such waves. It appears, however, that the surface signature of the waves acts only as a rather weak constraint, and that information on the vertical structure of the waves is required to better discriminate between competing theories. Due to the lack of 3-D observations, this paper uses high-resolution model data to construct realistic vertical structures of Rossby waves and compares these to structures predicted by theory. The meridional velocity of a section at 24° S in the Atlantic Ocean is pre-processed using the Radon transform to select the dominant westward signal. Normalized profiles are then constructed using three complementary methods based respectively on: (1) averaging vertical profiles of velocity, (2) diagnosing the amplitude of the Radon transform of the westward propagating signal at different depths, and (3) EOF analysis. These profiles are compared to profiles calculated using four different Rossby wave theories: standard linear theory (SLT), SLT plus mean flow, SLT plus topographic effects, and theory including mean flow and topographic effects. Our results support the classical theoretical assumption that westward propagating signals have a well-defined vertical modal structure associated with a phase speed independent of depth, in contrast with the conclusions of a recent study using the same model but for different locations in the North Atlantic. The model structures are in general surface intensified, with a sign reversal at depth in some regions, notably occurring at shallower depths in the East Atlantic. SLT provides a good fit to the model structures in the top 300 m, but grossly overestimates the sign reversal at depth. The addition of mean flow slightly improves the latter issue, but is too surface intensified. SLT plus topography rectifies the overestimation of the sign reversal, but overestimates the amplitude of the structure for much of the layer above the sign reversal. Combining the effects of mean flow and topography provided the best fit for the mean model profiles, although small errors at the surface and mid-depths are carried over from the individual effects of mean flow and topography respectively. Across the section the best fitting theory varies between SLT plus topography and topography with mean flow, with, in general, SLT plus topography performing better in the east where the sign reversal is less pronounced. None of the theories could accurately reproduce the deeper sign reversals in the west. All theories performed badly at the boundaries. The generalization of this method to other latitudes, oceans, models and baroclinic modes would provide greater insight into the variability in the ocean, while better observational data would allow verification of the model findings.

Salinity changes in the world ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes

Global hydrographic and air–sea freshwater flux datasets are used to investigate ocean salinity changes over 1950–2010 in relation to surface freshwater flux. On multi-decadal timescales, surface salinity increases (decreases) in evaporation (precipitation) dominated regions, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increases, and the upper thermocline salinity maximum increases while the salinity minimum of intermediate waters decreases. Potential trends in E–P are examined for 1950–2010 (using two reanalyses) and 1979–2010 (using four reanalyses and two blended products). Large differences in the 1950–2010 E–P trend patterns are evident in several regions, particularly the North Atlantic. For 1979–2010 some coherency in the spatial change patterns is evident but there is still a large spread in trend magnitude and sign between the six E–P products. However, a robust pattern of increased E–P in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres is seen in all products. There is also some evidence in the tropical Pacific for a link between the spatial change patterns of salinity and E–P associated with ENSO. The water cycle amplification rate over specific regions is subsequently inferred from the observed 3-D salinity change field using a salt conservation equation in variable isopycnal volumes, implicitly accounting for the migration of isopycnal surfaces. Inferred global changes of E–P over 1950–2010 amount to an increase of 1 ± 0.6 % in net evaporation across the subtropics and an increase of 4.2 ± 2 % in net precipitation across subpolar latitudes. Amplification rates are approximately doubled over 1979–2010, consistent with accelerated broad-scale warming but also coincident with much improved salinity sampling over the latter period.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the three-dimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years “target” simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-to-high latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied everywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained large-scale observations of this field.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.