73 resultados para O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences
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Effective public policy to mitigate climate change footprints should build on data-driven analysis of firm-level strategies. This article’s conceptual approach augments the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm and identifies investments in four firm-level resource domains (Governance, Information management, Systems, and Technology [GISTe]) to develop capabilities in climate change impact mitigation. The authors denote the resulting framework as the GISTe model, which frames their analysis and public policy recommendations. This research uses the 2008 Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) database, with high-quality information on firm-level climate change strategies for 552 companies from North America and Europe. In contrast to the widely accepted myth that European firms are performing better than North American ones, the authors find a different result. Many firms, whether European or North American, do not just “talk” about climate change impact mitigation, but actually do “walk the talk.” European firms appear to be better than their North American counterparts in “walk I,” denoting attention to governance, information management, and systems. But when it comes down to “walk II,” meaning actual Technology-related investments, North American firms’ performance is equal or superior to that of the European companies. The authors formulate public policy recommendations to accelerate firm-level, sector-level, and cluster-level implementation of climate change strategies.
Examining the relationships between Holocene climate change, hydrology, and human society in Ireland
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This thesis explores human-environment interactions during the Mid-Late Holocene in raised bogs in central Ireland. The raised bogs of central Ireland are widely-recognised for their considerable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological resources: research over the past few decades has established the potential for such sites to preserve sensitive records of Holocene climatic variability expressed as changes in bog surface wetness (BSW); meanwhile archaeological investigations over the past century have uncovered hundreds of peatland archaeological features dating from the Neolithic through to the Post-Medieval period including wooden trackways, platforms, and deposits of high-status metalwork. Previous studies have attempted to explore the relationship between records of past environmental change and the occurrence of peatland archaeological sites reaching varying conclusions. More recently, environmentally-deterministic models of human-environment interaction in Irish raised bogs at the regional scale have been explicitly tested leading to the conclusion that there is no relationship between BSW and past human activity. These relationships are examined in more detail on a site-by-site basis in this thesis. To that end, testate amoebae-derived BSW records from nine milled former raised bogs in central Ireland were produced from sites with known and dated archaeological records. Relationships between BSW records and environmental conditions within the study area were explored through both the development of a new central Ireland testate amoebae transfer function and through comparisons between recent BSW records and instrumental weather data. Compilation of BSW records from the nine fossil study sites show evidence both for climate forcing, particularly during 3200-2400 cal BP, as well as considerable inter-site variability. Considerable inter-site variability was also evident in the archaeological records of the same sites. Whilst comparisons between BSW and archaeological records do not show a consistent linear relationship, examination of records on a site-by-site basis were shown to reveal interpretatively important contingent relationships. It is concluded therefore, that future research on human-environment interactions should focus on individual sites and should utilise theoretical approaches from the humanities in order to avoid the twin pitfalls of masking important local patterns of change, and of environmental determinism.
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Societal concern is growing about the consequences of climate change for food systems and, in a number of regions, for food security. There is also concern that meeting the rising demand for food is leading to environmental degradation thereby exacerbating factors in part responsible for climate change, and further undermining the food systems upon which food security is based. A major emphasis of climate change/food security research over recent years has addressed the agronomic aspects of climate change, and particularly crop yield. This has provided an excellent foundation for assessments of how climate change may affect crop productivity, but the connectivity between these results and the broader issues of food security at large are relatively poorly explored; too often discussions of food security policy appear to be based on a relatively narrow agronomic perspective. To overcome the limitation of current agronomic research outputs there are several scientific challenges where further agronomic effort is necessary, and where agronomic research results can effectively contribute to the broader issues underlying food security. First is the need to better understand how climate change will affect cropping systems including both direct effects on the crops themselves and indirect effects as a result of changed pest and weed dynamics and altered soil and water conditions. Second is the need to assess technical and policy options for either reducing the deleterious impacts or enhancing the benefits of climate change on cropping systems while minimising further environmental degradation. Third is the need to understand how best to address the information needs of policy makers and report and communicate agronomic research results in a manner that will assist the development of food systems adapted to climate change. There are, however, two important considerations regarding these agronomic research contributions to the food security/climate change debate. The first concerns scale. Agronomic research has traditionally been conducted at plot scale over a growing season or perhaps a few years, but many of the issues related to food security operate at larger spatial and temporal scales. Over the last decade, agronomists have begun to establish trials at landscape scale, but there are a number of methodological challenges to be overcome at such scales. The second concerns the position of crop production (which is a primary focus of agronomic research) in the broader context of food security. Production is clearly important, but food distribution and exchange also determine food availability while access to food and food utilisation are other important components of food security. Therefore, while agronomic research alone cannot address all food security/climate change issues (and hence the balance of investment in research and development for crop production vis à vis other aspects of food security needs to be assessed), it will nevertheless continue to have an important role to play: it both improves understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production and helps to develop adaptation options; and also – and crucially – it improves understanding of the consequences of different adaptation options on further climate forcing. This role can further be strengthened if agronomists work alongside other scientists to develop adaptation options that are not only effective in terms of crop production, but are also environmentally and economically robust, at landscape and regional scales. Furthermore, such integrated approaches to adaptation research are much more likely to address the information need of policy makers. The potential for stronger linkages between the results of agronomic research in the context of climate change and the policy environment will thus be enhanced.
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Purpose The sensitivity of soil organic carbon to global change drivers, according to the depth profile, is receiving increasing attention because of its importance in the global carbon cycle and its potential feedback to climate change. A better knowledge of the vertical distribution of SOC and its controlling factors—the aim of this study—will help scientists predict the consequences of global change. Materials and methods The study area was the Murcia Province (S.E. Spain) under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The database used consists of 312 soil profiles collected in a systematic grid, each 12 km2 covering a total area of 11,004 km2. Statistical analysis to study the relationships between SOC concentration and control factors in different soil use scenarios was conducted at fixed depths of 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, and 60–100 cm. Results and discussion SOC concentration in the top 40 cm ranged between 6.1 and 31.5 g kg−1, with significant differences according to land use, soil type and lithology, while below this depth, no differences were observed (SOC concentration 2.1–6.8 g kg−1). The ANOVA showed that land use was the most important factor controlling SOC concentration in the 0–40 cm depth. Significant differences were found in the relative importance of environmental and textural factors according to land use and soil depth. In forestland, mean annual precipitation and texture were the main predictors of SOC, while in cropland and shrubland, the main predictors were mean annual temperature and lithology. Total SOC stored in the top 1 m in the region was about 79 Tg with a low mean density of 7.18 kg Cm−3. The vertical distribution of SOC was shallower in forestland and deeper in cropland. A reduction in rainfall would lead to SOC decrease in forestland and shrubland, and an increase of mean annual temperature would adversely affect SOC in croplands and shrubland. With increasing depth, the relative importance of climatic factors decreases and texture becomes more important in controlling SOC in all land uses. Conclusions Due to climate change, impacts will be much greater in surface SOC, the strategies for C sequestration should be focused on subsoil sequestration, which was hindered in forestland due to bedrock limitations to soil depth. In these conditions, sequestration in cropland through appropriate management practices is recommended.
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An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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We evaluate the profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture in the Philippines. Farm-level data are used to compare two production systems corresponding to the intensive monoculture of tilapia in freshwater ponds and the extensive polyculture of shrimps and fish in brackish water ponds. Both activities are very lucrative, with brackish water aquaculture achieving the higher level of profit per farm. Stochastic frontier production functions reveal that technical efficiency is low in brackish water aquaculture, with a mean of 53%, explained primarily by the operator's experience and by the frequency of his visits to the farm. In freshwater aquaculture, the farms achieve a mean efficiency level of 83%. The results suggest that the provision of extension services to brackish water fish farms might be a cost-effective way of increasing production and productivity in that sector. By contrast, technological change will have to be the driving force of future productivity growth in freshwater aquaculture.
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Since its launch in 1977, the scientific issues addressed by papers published in Climatic Change have changed considerably. Nuclear winter came and went, and papers have come from an increasingly diverse range of disciplines. Most obvious, of course, has been the emergence to overwhelming dominance of papers concerned with the processes and consequences associated with the climate changes driven by increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases. Within this theme too, it is possible to track the evolution of different topics over the last thirty years. In the pages of Climatic Change, as within the climate change research community, increased attention has been given to adaptation to a changing climate. Here, I examine the scale and characteristics of adaptation research in Climatic Change, draw some general conclusions from the research published in Climatic Change, and suggest from this some future research directions.
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Objectives To evaluate the effectiveness of integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy in addition to standard care for patients with psychosis and a co-morbid substance use problem. Design Two-centre, open, rater-blind randomised controlled trial Setting UK Secondary Care Participants 327 patients with clinical diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizophreniform or schizoaffective disorder and DSM-IV diagnoses of drug and/or alcohol dependence or abuse Interventions Participants were randomly allocated to integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy or standard care. Therapy has two phases. Phase one – “motivation building” – concerns engaging the patient, then exploring and resolving ambivalence for change in substance use. Phase two –“Action” – supports and facilitates change using cognitive behavioural approaches. Up to 26 therapy sessions were delivered over one year. Main outcomes The primary outcome was death from any cause or admission to hospital in the 12 months after therapy. Secondary outcomes were frequency and amount of substance use (Timeline Followback), readiness to change, perceived negative consequences of use, psychotic symptom ratings, number and duration of relapses, global assessment of functioning and deliberate self harm, at 12 and 24 months, with additional Timeline Followback assessments at 6 and 18 months. Analysis was by intention-to-treat with robust treatment effect estimates. Results 327 participants were randomised. 326 (99.7%) were assessed on the primary outcome, 246 (75.2%) on main secondary outcomes at 24 months. Regarding the primary outcome, there was no beneficial treatment effect on hospital admissions/ death during follow-up, with 20.2% (33/163) of controls and 23.3% (38/163) of the therapy group deceased or admitted (adjusted odds-ratio 1.16; P= 0.579; 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.99). For secondary outcomes there was no treatment effect on frequency of substance use or perceived negative consequences, but a statistically significant effect of therapy on amount used per substance-using day (adjusted odds-ratios: (a) for main substance 1.50; P=0.016; 1.08 to 2.09, (b) all substances 1.48; P=0.017; 1.07 to 2.05). There was a statistically significant treatment effect on readiness to change use at 12 months (adjusted odds-ratio 2.05; P=0.004; 1.26 to 3.31), not maintained at 24 months. There were no treatment effects on assessed clinical outcomes. Conclusions Integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy for people with psychosis and substance misuse does not improve outcome in terms of hospitalisation, symptom outcomes or functioning. It does result in a reduction in amount of substance use which is maintained over the year’s follow up. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN14404480
Resumo:
The rate and magnitude of predicted climate change require that we urgently mitigate emissions or sequester carbon on a substantial scale in order to avoid runaway climate change. Geo- and bioengineering solutions are increasingly proposed as viable and practical strategies for tackling global warming. Biotechnology companies are already developing transgenic “super carbon-absorbing” trees, which are sold as a cost-effective and relatively low-risk means of sequestering carbon. The question posed in this article is, Do super carbon trees provide real benefits or are they merely a fanciful illusion? It remains unclear whether growing these trees makes sense in terms of the carbon cost of production and the actual storage of carbon. In particular, it is widely acknowledged that “carbon-eating” trees fail to sequester as much carbon as they oxidize and return to the atmosphere; moreover, there are concerns about the biodiversity impacts of large-scale monoculture plantations. The potential social and ecological risks and opportunities presented by such controversial solutions warrant a societal dialogue.