Combining satellite data and models to estimate cloud radiative effect at the surface and in the atmosphere

Satellite measurements and numerical forecast model reanalysis data are used to compute an updated estimate of the cloud radiative effect on the global multi-annual mean radiative energy budget of the atmosphere and surface. The cloud radiative cooling effect through reflection of shortwave radiation dominates over the longwave heating effect, resulting in a net cooling of the climate system of –21 Wm-2. The shortwave radiative effect of cloud is primarily manifest as a reduction in the solar radiation absorbed at the surface of -53 Wm-2. Clouds impact longwave radiation by heating the moist tropical atmosphere (up to around 40 Wm-2 for global annual means) while enhancing the radiative cooling of the atmosphere over other regions, in particular higher latitudes and sub-tropical marine stratocumulus regimes. While clouds act to cool the climate system during the daytime, the cloud greenhouse effect heats the climate system at night. The influence of cloud radiative effect on determining cloud feedbacks and changes in the water cycle are discussed.

Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Influence of substrate on corneal epithelial cell viability within ocular surface models

Corneal tissue engineering has improved dramatically over recent years. It is now possible to apply these technological advancements to the development of superior in vitro ocular surface models to reduce animal testing. We aim to show the effect different substrates can have on the viability of expanded corneal epithelial cells and that those which more accurately mimic the stromal surface provide the most protection against toxic assault. Compressed collagen gel as a substrate for the expansion of a human epithelial cell line was compared against two well-known substrates for modeling the ocular surface (polycarbonate membrane and conventional collagen gel). Cells were expanded over 10 days at which point cell stratification, cell number and expression of junctional proteins were assessed by electron microscopy, immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. The effect of increasing concentrations of sodium lauryl sulphate on epithelial cell viability was quantified by MTT assay. Results showed improvement in terms of stratification, cell number and tight junction expression in human epithelial cells expanded upon either the polycarbonate membrane or compressed collagen gel when compared to a the use of a conventional collagen gel. However, cell viability was significantly higher in cells expanded upon the compressed collagen gel. We conclude that the more naturalistic composition and mechanical properties of compressed collagen gels produces a more robust corneal model.

Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity

To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

RAMI4PILPS: An intercomparison of formulations for the partitioning of solar radiation in land surface models

[1] Remotely sensed, multiannual data sets of shortwave radiative surface fluxes are now available for assimilation into land surface schemes (LSSs) of climate and/or numerical weather prediction models. The RAMI4PILPS suite of virtual experiments assesses the accuracy and consistency of the radiative transfer formulations that provide the magnitudes of absorbed, reflected, and transmitted shortwave radiative fluxes in LSSs. RAMI4PILPS evaluates models under perfectly controlled experimental conditions in order to eliminate uncertainties arising from an incomplete or erroneous knowledge of the structural, spectral and illumination related canopy characteristics typical for model comparison with in situ observations. More specifically, the shortwave radiation is separated into a visible and near-infrared spectral region, and the quality of the simulated radiative fluxes is evaluated by direct comparison with a 3-D Monte Carlo reference model identified during the third phase of the Radiation transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise. The RAMI4PILPS setup thus allows to focus in particular on the numerical accuracy of shortwave radiative transfer formulations and to pinpoint to areas where future model improvements should concentrate. The impact of increasing degrees of structural and spectral subgrid variability on the simulated fluxes is documented and the relevance of any thus emerging biases with respect to gross primary production estimates and shortwave radiative forcings due to snow and fire events are investigated.

Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling

The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

Comparison of different boundary layer surface schemes using single point micrometeorological field data

 In the last decade, a vast number of land surface schemes has been designed for use in global climate models, atmospheric weather prediction, mesoscale numerical models, ecological models, and models of global changes. Since land surface schemes are designed for different purposes they have various levels of complexity in the treatment of bare soil processes, vegetation, and soil water movement. This paper is a contribution to a little group of papers dealing with intercomparison of differently designed and oriented land surface schemes. For that purpose we have chosen three schemes for classification: i) global climate models, BATS (Dickinson et al., 1986; Dickinson et al., 1992); ii) mesoscale and ecological models, LEAF (Lee, 1992) and iii) mesoscale models, LAPS (Mihailović, 1996; Mihailović and Kallos, 1997; Mihailović et al., 1999) according to the Shao et al. (1995) classification. These schemes were compared using surface fluxes and leaf temperature outputs obtained by time integrations of data sets derived from the micrometeorological measurements above a maize field at an experimental site in De Sinderhoeve (The Netherlands) for 18 August, 8 September, and 4 October 1988. Finally, comparison of the schemes was supported applying a simple statistical analysis on the surface flux outputs.

Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.

A time-domain probe method for three-dimensional rough surface reconstructions

The task of this paper is to develop a Time-Domain Probe Method for the reconstruction of impenetrable scatterers. The basic idea of the method is to use pulses in the time domain and the time-dependent response of the scatterer to reconstruct its location and shape. The method is based on the basic causality principle of timedependent scattering. The method is independent of the boundary condition and is applicable for limited aperture scattering data. In particular, we discuss the reconstruction of the shape of a rough surface in three dimensions from time-domain measurements of the scattered field. In practise, measurement data is collected where the incident field is given by a pulse. We formulate the time-domain fieeld reconstruction problem equivalently via frequency-domain integral equations or via a retarded boundary integral equation based on results of Bamberger, Ha-Duong, Lubich. In contrast to pure frequency domain methods here we use a time-domain characterization of the unknown shape for its reconstruction. Our paper will describe the Time-Domain Probe Method and relate it to previous frequency-domain approaches on sampling and probe methods by Colton, Kirsch, Ikehata, Potthast, Luke, Sylvester et al. The approach significantly extends recent work of Chandler-Wilde and Lines (2005) and Luke and Potthast (2006) on the timedomain point source method. We provide a complete convergence analysis for the method for the rough surface scattering case and provide numerical simulations and examples.

Modeling the patrol behavior of the Diacamma's gamergate

The gamergate (generally called the “queen”) of the Diacamma sp. walks around in the nest and comes into contact with the workers. The gamergate informs the workers of its presence by physical contact. This behavior is called a “patrol.” In previous work, it was reported that the gamergate controls its patrolling time depending on the colony size. How does the gamergate know the colony size, and how does it control the patrolling time? In this article, we propose a simple dynamics to explain this behavior. We assume that the gamergate and the workers have internal states which interact by physical contacts. By numerical simulations, we confirm that the patrol time of the proposed model depends on the size of the colony.

Heat kernel smoothing via Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions and its application to subcortical structure modeling

We present a new subcortical structure shape modeling framework using heat kernel smoothing constructed with the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions. The cotan discretization is used to numerically obtain the eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator along the surface of subcortical structures of the brain. The eigenfunctions are then used to construct the heat kernel and used in smoothing out measurements noise along the surface. The proposed framework is applied in investigating the influence of age (38-79 years) and gender on amygdala and hippocampus shape. We detected a significant age effect on hippocampus in accordance with the previous studies. In addition, we also detected a significant gender effect on amygdala. Since we did not find any such differences in the traditional volumetric methods, our results demonstrate the benefit of the current framework over traditional volumetric methods.

Sparse shape representation using the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions and its application to modeling subcortical structures

We present a new sparse shape modeling framework on the Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions. Traditionally, the LB-eigenfunctions are used as a basis for intrinsically representing surface shapes by forming a Fourier series expansion. To reduce high frequency noise, only the first few terms are used in the expansion and higher frequency terms are simply thrown away. However, some lower frequency terms may not necessarily contribute significantly in reconstructing the surfaces. Motivated by this idea, we propose to filter out only the significant eigenfunctions by imposing l1-penalty. The new sparse framework can further avoid additional surface-based smoothing often used in the field. The proposed approach is applied in investigating the influence of age (38-79 years) and gender on amygdala and hippocampus shapes in the normal population. In addition, we show how the emotional response is related to the anatomy of the subcortical structures.

Comparison of different boundary layer surface schemes using single point micrometeorological field data

 In the last decade, a vast number of land surface schemes has been designed for use in global climate models, atmospheric weather prediction, mesoscale numerical models, ecological models, and models of global changes. Since land surface schemes are designed for different purposes they have various levels of complexity in the treatment of bare soil processes, vegetation, and soil water movement. This paper is a contribution to a little group of papers dealing with intercomparison of differently designed and oriented land surface schemes. For that purpose we have chosen three schemes for classification: i) global climate models, BATS (Dickinson et al., 1986; Dickinson et al., 1992); ii) mesoscale and ecological models, LEAF (Lee, 1992) and iii) mesoscale models, LAPS (Mihailović, 1996; Mihailović and Kallos, 1997; Mihailović et al., 1999) according to the Shao et al. (1995) classification. These schemes were compared using surface fluxes and leaf temperature outputs obtained by time integrations of data sets derived from the micrometeorological measurements above a maize field at an experimental site in De Sinderhoeve (The Netherlands) for 18 August, 8 September, and 4 October 1988. Finally, comparison of the schemes was supported applying a simple statistical analysis on the surface flux outputs.

The APE atlas

This Atlas presents statistical analyses of the simulations submitted to the Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE) data archive. The simulations are from global Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM) applied to a water-covered earth. The AGCMs include ones actively used or being developed for numerical weather prediction or climate research. Some are mature, application models and others are more novel and thus less well tested in Earth-like applications. The experiment applies AGCMs with their complete parameterization package to an idealization of the planet Earth which has a greatly simplified lower boundary that consists of an ocean only. It has no land and its associated orography, and no sea ice. The ocean is represented by Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) which are specified everywhere with simple, idealized distributions. Thus in the hierarchy of tests available for AGCMs, APE falls between tests with simplified forcings such as those proposed by Held and Suarez (1994) and Boer and Denis (1997) and Earth-like simulations of the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP, Gates et al., 1999). Blackburn and Hoskins (2013) summarize the APE and its aims. They discuss where the APE fits within a modeling hierarchy which has evolved to evaluate complete models and which provides a link between realistic simulation and conceptual models of atmospheric phenomena. The APE bridges a gap in the existing hierarchy. The goals of APE are to provide a benchmark of current model behaviors and to stimulate research to understand the cause of inter-model differences., APE is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) joint Commission on Atmospheric Science (CAS), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE). Chapter 2 of this Atlas provides an overview of the specification of the eight APE experiments and of the data collected. Chapter 3 lists the participating models and includes brief descriptions of each. Chapters 4 through 7 present a wide variety of statistics from the 14 participating models for the eight different experiments. Additional intercomparison figures created by Dr. Yukiko Yamada in AGU group are available at http://www.gfd-dennou.org/library/ape/comparison/. This Atlas is intended to present and compare the statistics of the APE simulations but does not contain a discussion of interpretive analyses. Such analyses are left for journal papers such as those included in the Special Issue of the Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan (2013, Vol. 91A) devoted to the APE. Two papers in that collection provide an overview of the simulations. One (Blackburn et al., 2013) concentrates on the CONTROL simulation and the other (Williamson et al., 2013) on the response to changes in the meridional SST profile. Additional papers provide more detailed analysis of the basic simulations, while others describe various sensitivities and applications. The APE experiment data base holds a wealth of data that is now publicly available from the APE web site: http://climate.ncas.ac.uk/ape/. We hope that this Atlas will stimulate future analyses and investigations to understand the large variation seen in the model behaviors.

On the use of a time sequence of surface pressures in four-dimensional data assimilation

The possibility of using a time sequence of surface pressure observations in four-dimensional data assimilation is being investigated. It is shown that a linear multilevel quasi-geostrophic model can be updated successfully with surface data alone, provided the number of time levels are at least as many as the number of vertical levels. It is further demonstrated that current statistical analysis procedures are very inefficient to assimilate surface observations, and it is shown by numerical experiments that the vertical interpolation must be carried out using the structure of the most dominating baroclinic mode in order to obtain a satisfactory updating. Different possible ways towards finding a practical solution are being discussed.