Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream

Much of the atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is associated with variations in the eddy-driven component of the zonal flow. Here we present a simple method to specifically diagnose this component of the flow using the low-level wind field (925–700 hpa ). We focus on the North Atlantic winter season in the ERA-40 reanalysis. Diagnostics of the latitude and speed of the eddy-driven jet stream are compared with conventional diagnostics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. This shows that the NAO and the EA both describe combined changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream. It is therefore necessary, but not always sufficient, to consider both the NAO and the EA in identifying changes in the jet stream. The jet stream analysis suggests that there are three preferred latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in winter. This result is in very good agreement with the application of a statistical mixture model to the two-dimensional state space defined by the NAO and the EA. These results are consistent with several other studies which identify four European/Atlantic regimes, comprising three jet stream patterns plus European blocking events.

Pliocene seasonality across the North Atlantic inferred from cheilostome bryozoans

Previous studies have shown an inverse correlation between zooid size in cheilostome bryozoans and ambient water temperature. This relationship underlies the MART technique which uses intracolonial variation in zooid size to predict mean annual range in temperature experienced by bryozoan colonies during their life. Here we apply the MART technique to study Early and Mid Pliocene bryozoans from Central America (Panama, Costa Rica), the USA (Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) and the UK (Suffolk) to reconstruct palaeoseasonality across a range of latitudes for the North Atlantic during the Pliocene Epoch. Compared to the present-day, our analyses suggest greater seasonality (ca 4.5 degrees C) in the southern Caribbean at the time of Cayo Agua Formation deposition (ca 4.25 Ma), in keeping with inferred upwelling prior to the closure of the isthmian barrier at 2.7 Ma. Bryozoans also indicate seasonal upwelling on the Gulf Coast of Florida in a similar manner to the present-day. Because upwelling can be highly localised and prone to spatial and temporal variation in the Gulf of Mexico today, it contributes little to a broad understanding of Pliocene North Atlantic waters. However, MART estimates for the coastal plain region indicate a general reduction in the annual range in temperature relative to the present, suggesting that the colder surface waters that today reach south to Cape Hatteras had less influence in Early to Mid Pliocene times. These results, along with evidence from other proxies, strongly support reduced seasonality and warmer conditions along the eastern seaboard of the USA in the Early to Mid Pliocene. Finally, the MART estimates amongst Coralline Crag localities provide evidence for an increased annual range in temperature in the southern North Sea than at present. Our study shows that bryozoan MART estimates provide a powerful, independent proxy for palaeoseasonality and is the first to demonstrate that the MART technique can be applied to infer palaeoclimates across a wide range of latitudes focusing on a variety of geological formations and geographical regions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv (note the non-IUPAC adoption in this manuscript of pptv and ppbv, equivalent to pmol mol−1 and nmol mol−1 to reflect common practice). Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

The north Atlantic marine oundary layer experiment (NAMBLEX): Overview of the campaign held at Mace Head, Ireland, in summer 2002

The North Atlantic Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (NAMBLEX), involving over 50 scientists from 12 institutions, took place at Mace Head, Ireland (53.32° N, 9.90° W), between 23 July and 4 September 2002. A wide range of state-of-the-art instrumentation enabled detailed measurements of the boundary layer structure and atmospheric composition in the gas and aerosol phase to be made, providing one of the most comprehensive in situ studies of the marine boundary layer to date. This overview paper describes the aims of the NAMBLEX project in the context of previous field campaigns in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL), the overall layout of the site, a summary of the instrumentation deployed, the temporal coverage of the measurement data, and the numerical models used to interpret the field data. Measurements of some trace species were made for the first time during the campaign, which was characterised by predominantly clean air of marine origin, but more polluted air with higher levels of NOx originating from continental regions was also experienced. This paper provides a summary of the meteorological measurements and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) structure measurements, presents time series of some of the longer-lived trace species (O3, CO, H2, DMS, CH4, NMHC, NOx, NOy, PAN) and summarises measurements of other species that are described in more detail in other papers within this special issue, namely oxygenated VOCs, HCHO, peroxides, organo-halogenated species, a range of shorter lived halogen species (I2, OIO, IO, BrO), NO3 radicals, photolysis frequencies, the free radicals OH, HO2 and (HO2+Σ RO2), as well as a summary of the aerosol measurements. NAMBLEX was supported by measurements made in the vicinity of Mace Head using the NERC Dornier-228 aircraft. Using ECMWF wind-fields, calculations were made of the air-mass trajectories arriving at Mace Head during NAMBLEX, and were analysed together with both meteorological and trace-gas measurements. In this paper a chemical climatology for the duration of the campaign is presented to interpret the distribution of air-mass origins and emission sources, and to provide a convenient framework of air-mass classification that is used by other papers in this issue for the interpretation of observed variability in levels of trace gases and aerosols.

Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene

The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period.

A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: observations and projected changes

The Arctic has undergone substantial changes over the last few decades in various cryospheric and derivative systems and processes. Of these, the Arctic sea ice regime has seen some of the most rapid change and is one of the most visible markers of Arctic change outside the scientific community. This has drawn considerable attention not only from the natural sciences, but increasingly, from the political and commercial sectors as they begin to grapple with the problems and opportunities that are being presented. The possible impacts of past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice, especially as it relates to climatic response, are of particular interest and have been the subject of increasing research activity. A review of the current knowledge of the role of sea ice in the climate system is therefore timely. We present a review that examines both the current state of understanding, as regards the impacts of sea-ice loss observed to date, and climate model projections, to highlight hypothesised future changes and impacts on storm tracks and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Within the broad climate-system perspective, the topics of storminess and large-scale variability will be specifically considered. We then consider larger-scale impacts on the climatic system by reviewing studies that have focused on the interaction between sea-ice extent and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Finally, an overview of the representation of these topics in the literature in the context of IPCC climate projections is presented. While most agree on the direction of Arctic sea-ice change, the rates amongst the various projections vary greatly. Similarly, the response of storm tracks and climate variability are uncertain, exacerbated possibly by the influence of other factors. A variety of scientific papers on the relationship between sea-ice changes and atmospheric variability have brought to light important aspects of this complex topic. Examples are an overall reduction in the number of Arctic winter storms, a northward shift of mid-latitude winter storms in the Pacific and a delayed negative NAO-like response in autumn/winter to a reduced Arctic sea-ice cover (at least in some months). This review paper discusses this research and the disagreements, bringing about a fresh perspective on this issue.

Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet

The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23-extended-winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three-extended-winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time-scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23-extended-winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Characterising North Atlantic weather patterns for climate-optimal aircraft routing

Daily weather patterns over the North Atlantic are classified into relevant types: typical weather patterns that may characterize the range of climate impacts from aviation in this region, for both summer and winter. The motivation is to provide a set of weather types to facilitate an investigation of climate-optimal aircraft routing of trans-Atlantic flights (minimizing the climate impact on a flight-by-flight basis). Using the New York to London route as an example, the time-optimal route times are shown to vary by over 60 min, to take advantage of strong tailwinds or avoid headwinds, and for eastbound routes latitude correlates well with the latitude of the jet stream. The weather patterns are classified by their similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic teleconnection patterns. For winter, five types are defined; in summer, when there is less variation in jet latitude, only three types are defined. The types can be characterized by the jet strength and position, and therefore the location of the time-optimal routes varies by type. Simple proxies for the climate impact of carbon dioxide, ozone, water vapour and contrails are defined, which depend on parameters such as the route time, latitude and season, the time spent flying in the stratosphere, and the distance over which the air is supersaturated with respect to ice. These proxies are then shown to vary between weather types and between eastbound and westbound routes.

The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part II: Sea surface temperatures

The impact of North Atlantic SST patterns on the storm track is investigated using a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized (aquaplanet) and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in the atmospheric component (HadAM3) of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). This framework enables the mechanisms determining the tropospheric response to North Atlantic SST patterns to be examined, both in isolation and in combination with continental-scale landmasses and orography. In isolation, a “Gulf Stream” SST pattern acts to strengthen the downstream storm track while a “North Atlantic Drift” SST pattern weakens it. These changes are consistent with changes in the extratropical SST gradient and near-surface baroclinicity, and each storm-track response is associated with a consistent change in the tropospheric jet structure. Locally enhanced near-surface horizontal wind convergence is found over the warm side of strengthened SST gradients associated with ascending air and increased precipitation, consistent with previous studies. When the combined SST pattern is introduced into the semirealistic framework (including the “North American” continent and the “Rocky Mountains”), the results suggest that the topographically generated southwest–northeast tilt in the North Atlantic storm track is enhanced. In particular, the Gulf Stream shifts the storm track south in the western Atlantic whereas the strong high-latitude SST gradient in the northeastern Atlantic enhances the storm track there.

The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns

This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.

The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation.