Eutrophication control in river-systems: an application of INCA-P to the River Lugg

The Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) was applied to the River Lugg to determine the key factors controlling delivery of phosphorus to the main channel and to quantify the relative contribution of diffuse and point sources to the in-stream phosphorus (P) load under varying hydrological conditions. The model is able to simulate the seasonal variations and inter-annual variations in the in-stream total-phosphorus concentrations. However, difficulties in simulating diffuse inputs arise due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters. The River Lugg is split into upper and lower reaches. The upper reaches are dominated by grassland and woodland, so the patterns in the stream-water total-phosphorus concentrations are typical of diffuse source inputs; application of the model leads to estimates of the relative contribution to the in-stream P load from diffuse and point sources as 9:1. In the lower reaches, which are more intensively cultivated and urbanised, the stream-water total-phosphorus concentration dynamics are influenced more by point-sources; the simulated relative diffuse/point contribution to the in-stream P load is 1: 1. The model set-up and simulations are used to identify the key source-areas of P in the catchment, the P contribution of the Lugg to the River Wye during years with contrasting precipitation inputs, and the uptake and release of P from within-reach sediment. In addition, model scenarios are run to identify the impacts of likely P reductions at sewage treatment works on the in-stream soluble-reactive P concentrations and the suitability of this as a management option is assessed for reducing eutrophication.

Towards an improved understanding of the nitrate dynamics in lowland, permeable river-systems: Applications of INCA-N

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the Lambourn and Pang river-systems to integrate current process-knowledge and available-data to test two hypotheses and thereby determine the key factors and processes controlling the movement of nitrate at the catchment-scale in lowland, permeable river-systems: (i) that the in-stream nitrate concentrations were controlled by two end-members only: groundwater and soil-water, and (ii) that the groundwater was the key store of nitrate in these river-systems. Neither hypothesis was proved true or false. Due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters at least two alternative models provided viable explanations for the observed in-stream nitrate concentrations. One model demonstrated that the seasonal-pattern in the stream-water nitrate concentrations was controlled mainly by the mixing of ground- and soil-water inputs. An alternative model demonstrated that in-stream processes were important. It is hoped further measurements of nitrate concentrations made in the catchment soil- and ground-water and in-stream may constrain the model and help determine the correct structure, though other recent studies suggest that these data may serve only to highlight the heterogeneity of the system. Thus when making model-based assessments and forecasts it is recommend that all possible models are used, and the range of forecasts compared. In this study both models suggest that cereal production contributed approximately 50% the simulated in-stream nitrate toad in the two catchments, and the point-source contribution to the in-stream load was minimal. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling nitrogen fluxes from the land surface to the coastal zone in European systems: the perspective of the INCA project

This paper describes the results and conclusions of the INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European CAtchments) project and sets the findings in the context of the ELOISE (European Land-Ocean Interaction Studies) programme. The INCA project was concerned with the development of a generic model of the major factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in European river systems, thereby providing a tool (a) to aid the scientific understanding of nitrogen transport and retention in catchments and (b) for river-basin management and policy-making. The findings of the study highlight the heterogeneity of the factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in freshwater systems. Nonetheless, the INCA model was able to simulate the in-stream nitrogen concentrations and fluxes observed at annual and seasonal timescales in Arctic, Continental and Maritime-Temperate regimes. This result suggests that the data requirements and structural complexity of the INCA model are appropriate to simulate nitrogen fluxes across a wide range of European freshwater environments. This is a major requirement for the production of coupled fiver-estuary-coastal shelf models for the management of our aquatic environment. With regard to river-basin management, to achieve an efficient reduction in nutrient fluxes from the land to the estuarine and coastal zone, the model simulations suggest that management options must be adaptable to the prevailing environmental and socio-economic factors in individual catchments: 'Blanket approaches' to environmental policy appear too simple. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Wheal Jane wetlands model for bioremediation of acid mine drainage

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is a widespread environmental problem associated with both working and abandoned mining operations. As part of an overall strategy to determine a long-term treatment option for AMD, a pilot passive treatment plant was constructed in 1994 at Wheal Jane Mine in Cornwall, UK. The plant consists of three separate systems, each containing aerobic reed beds, anaerobic cell and rock filters, and represents the largest European experimental facility of its kind. The systems only differ by the type of pretreatment utilised to increase the pH of the influent minewater (pH <4): lime dosed (LD), anoxic limestone drain (ALD) and lime free (LF), which receives no form of pretreatment. Historical data (1994-1997) indicate median Fe reduction between 55% and 92%, sulphate removal in the range of 3-38% and removal of target metals (cadmium, copper and zinc) below detection limits, depending on pretreatment and flow rates through the system. A new model to simulate the processes and dynamics of the wetlands systems is described, as well as the application of the model to experimental data collected at the pilot plant. The model is process based, and utilises reaction kinetic approaches based on experimental microbial techniques rather than an equilibrium approach to metal precipitation. The model is dynamic and utilises numerical integration routines to solve a set of differential equations that describe the behaviour of 20 variables over the 17 pilot plant cells on a daily basis. The model outputs at each cell boundary are evaluated and compared with the measured data, and the model is demonstrated to provide a good representation of the complex behaviour of the wetland system for a wide range of variables. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V/ All rights reserved.

A conventionally managed project: a systems based case study

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private development consisting of an extension to an existing building to provide a wholesale butchery facility. The project used a conventionally organized management process. The organization structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from the systems theory, which are included in Walkers theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations. This model proposes that the process of building provision can be viewed as systems and sub-systems that are differentiated from each other at decision points. Further to this, the sub-systems can be viewed as the interaction of managing system and operating system. Using Walkers model, a systematic analysis of the relationships between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficiency of the organizational structure used. The project's organization structure diverged from the models propositions resulting in delay to the project's completion and cost overrun but the client was satisfied with the project functionally.

A project managed by a multi disciplinary practice: a systems based case study.

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private industrial development consisting of an engineering factory and offices. A multi-disciplinary professional practice was used to manage and design the project. The organizational structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from systems theory which are included in Walker's theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations (Walker, 1981). This model proposes that the process of buildings provision can be viewed as systems and sub-systems which are differentiated form each other at decision points. Further to this, the sub-systematic analysis of the relationship between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficiency of the organizational structure used. There was a high level of satisfaction with the completed project and this is reflected by the way in which the organization structure corresponded to the model's proposition. However, the project was subject to string environmental forces which the project organization was not capable of entirely overcoming.

An analysis of the management of a public sector project: a systems-based case study

The management of a public sector project is analysed using a model developed from systems theory. Linear responsibility analysis is used to identify the primary and key decision structure of the project and to generate quantitative data regarding differentiation and integration of the operating system, the managing system and the client/project team. The environmental context of the project is identified. Conclusions are drawn regarding the project organization structure's ability to cope with the prevailing environmental conditions. It is found that the complexity of the managing system imposed on the project was unable to achieve this and created serious deficiencies in the outcome of the project.

A singular vector perspective of 4DVAR: The spatial structure and evolution of baroclinic weather systems

The extent to which the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is able to use information about the time evolution of the atmosphere to infer the vertical spatial structure of baroclinic weather systems is investigated. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 4DVAR observability matrix is introduced as a novel technique to examine the spatial structure of analysis increments. Specific results are illustrated using 4DVAR analyses and SVD within an idealized 2D Eady model setting. Three different aspects are investigated. The first aspect considers correcting errors that result in normal-mode growth or decay. The results show that 4DVAR performs well at correcting growing errors but not decaying errors. Although it is possible for 4DVAR to correct decaying errors, the assimilation of observations can be detrimental to a forecast because 4DVAR is likely to add growing errors instead of correcting decaying errors. The second aspect shows that the singular values of the observability matrix are a useful tool to identify the optimal spatial and temporal locations for the observations. The results show that the ability to extract the time-evolution information can be maximized by placing the observations far apart in time. The third aspect considers correcting errors that result in nonmodal rapid growth. 4DVAR is able to use the model dynamics to infer some of the vertical structure. However, the specification of the case-dependent background error variances plays a crucial role.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: the MarQUEST experience

The MarQUEST (Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Modelling Initiative in QUEST) project was established to develop improved descriptions of marine biogeochemistry, suited for the next generation of Earth system models. We review progress in these areas providing insight on the advances that have been made as well as identifying remaining key outstanding gaps for the development of the marine component of next generation Earth system models. The following issues are discussed and where appropriate results are presented; the choice of model structure, scaling processes from physiology to functional types, the ecosystem model sensitivity to changes in the physical environment, the role of the coastal ocean and new methods for the evaluation and comparison of ecosystem and biogeochemistry models. We make recommendations as to where future investment in marine ecosystem modelling should be focused, highlighting a generic software framework for model development, improved hydrodynamic models, and better parameterisation of new and existing models, reanalysis tools and ensemble simulations. The final challenge is to ensure that experimental/observational scientists are stakeholders in the models and vice versa.

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows is developed using a minimal set of physical assumptions. These disturbances are assumed to be balanced systems intensifying through the WISHE (Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange) intensification mechanism, driven by surface fluxes of heat and moisture into an atmosphere which is neutral to moist convection. The equation set is linearized about a resting basic state and solved as an initial-value problem. A system is predicted to intensify with an exponential perturbation growth rate scaled by the radial gradient of an efficiency parameter which crudely represents the effects of unsaturated processes. The form of this efficiency parameter is assumed to be defined by initial conditions, dependent on the nature of a pre-existing vortex required to precondition the atmosphere to a state in which the vortex can intensify. Evaluation of the simple model using a primitive-equation, nonlinear numerical model provides support for the prediction of exponential perturbation growth. Good agreement is found between the simple and numerical models for the sensitivities of the measured growth rate to various parameters, including surface roughness, the rate of transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, and the scale for the growing vortex.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.