A generalised Bayesian instrumental variable approach under student t-distributed errors with application

Bayesian analysis is given of an instrumental variable model that allows for heteroscedasticity in both the structural equation and the instrument equation. Specifically, the approach for dealing with heteroscedastic errors in Geweke (1993) is extended to the Bayesian instrumental variable estimator outlined in Rossi et al. (2005). Heteroscedasticity is treated by modelling the variance for each error using a hierarchical prior that is Gamma distributed. The computation is carried out by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with an augmented draw for the heteroscedastic case. An example using real data illustrates the approach and shows that ignoring heteroscedasticity in the instrument equation when it exists may lead to biased estimates.

Variable binding and coreference in sentence comprehension: evidence from eye movements

The hypothesis that pronouns can be resolved via either the syntax or the discourse representation has played an important role in linguistic accounts of pronoun interpretation (e.g. Grodzinsky & Reinhart, 1993). We report the results of an eye-movement monitoring study investigating the relative timing of syntactically-mediated variable binding and discourse-based coreference assignment during pronoun resolution. We examined whether ambiguous pronouns are preferentially resolved via either the variable binding or coreference route, and in particular tested the hypothesis that variable binding should always be computed before coreference assignment. Participants’ eye movements were monitored while they read sentences containing a pronoun and two potential antecedents, a c-commanding quantified noun phrase and a non c-commanding proper name. Gender congruence between the pronoun and either of the two potential antecedents was manipulated as an experimental diagnostic for dependency formation. In two experiments, we found that participants’ reading times were reliably longer when the linearly closest antecedent mismatched in gender with the pronoun. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that variable binding is computed before coreference assignment, and instead suggest that antecedent recency plays an important role in affecting the extent to which a variable binding antecedent is considered. We discuss these results in relation to models of memory retrieval during sentence comprehension, and interpret the antecedent recency preference as an example of forgetting over time.

A multidimensional comparison of discourse organization in English and Chinese university students' argumentative writing

Three methodological limitations in English-Chinese contrastive rhetoric research have been identified in previous research, namely: the failure to control for the quality of L1 data; an inference approach to interpreting the relationship between L1 and L2 writing; and a focus on national cultural factors in interpreting rhetorical differences. Addressing these limitations, the current study examined the presence or absence and placement of thesis statement and topic sentences in four sets of argumentative texts produced by three groups of university students. We found that Chinese students tended to favour a direct/deductive approach in their English and Chinese writing, while native English writers typically adopted an indirect/inductive approach. This study argues for a dynamic and ecological interpretation of rhetorical practices in different languages and cultures.

Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice

Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe andmelt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.

Gaussian anamorphosis in the analysis step of the EnKF: a joint state-variable/observation approach

The analysis step of the (ensemble) Kalman filter is optimal when (1) the distribution of the background is Gaussian, (2) state variables and observations are related via a linear operator, and (3) the observational error is of additive nature and has Gaussian distribution. When these conditions are largely violated, a pre-processing step known as Gaussian anamorphosis (GA) can be applied. The objective of this procedure is to obtain state variables and observations that better fulfil the Gaussianity conditions in some sense. In this work we analyse GA from a joint perspective, paying attention to the effects of transformations in the joint state variable/observation space. First, we study transformations for state variables and observations that are independent from each other. Then, we introduce a targeted joint transformation with the objective to obtain joint Gaussianity in the transformed space. We focus primarily in the univariate case, and briefly comment on the multivariate one. A key point of this paper is that, when (1)-(3) are violated, using the analysis step of the EnKF will not recover the exact posterior density in spite of any transformations one may perform. These transformations, however, provide approximations of different quality to the Bayesian solution of the problem. Using an example in which the Bayesian posterior can be analytically computed, we assess the quality of the analysis distributions generated after applying the EnKF analysis step in conjunction with different GA options. The value of the targeted joint transformation is particularly clear for the case when the prior is Gaussian, the marginal density for the observations is close to Gaussian, and the likelihood is a Gaussian mixture.

The CURE scale: a multidimensional measure of service recovery strategy

Purpose – This paper aims to address the gaps in service recovery strategy assessment. An effective service recovery strategy that prevents customer defection after a service failure is a powerful managerial instrument. The literature to date does not present a comprehensive assessment of service recovery strategy. It also lacks a clear picture of the service recovery actions at managers’ disposal in case of failure and the effectiveness of individual strategies on customer outcomes. Design/methodology/approach – Based on service recovery theory, this paper proposes a formative index of service recovery strategy and empirically validates this measure using partial least-squares path modelling with survey data from 437 complainants in the telecommunications industry in Egypt. Findings – The CURE scale (CUstomer REcovery scale) presents evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant and nomological validity. Findings also reveal that problem-solving, speed of response, effort, facilitation and apology are the actions that have an impact on the customer’s satisfaction with service recovery. Practical implications – This new formative index is of potential value in investigating links between strategy and customer evaluations of service by helping managers identify which actions contribute most to changes in the overall service recovery strategy as well as satisfaction with service recovery. Ultimately, the CURE scale facilitates the long-term planning of effective complaint management. Originality/value – This is the first study in the service marketing literature to propose a comprehensive assessment of service recovery strategy and clearly identify the service recovery actions that contribute most to changes in the overall service recovery strategy.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

Bound Variable, Split Antecedent and Ellipsis Interpretations in L2 Portuguese: Implications for L2 Acquisition Theories.

Recently, in light of minimalist assumptions, some partial UG accessibility accounts to adult second language acquisition have made a distinction between the post-critical period ability to acquire new features based on their LF-interpretability (i.e. interpretable vs. uninterpretable features) (HAWKINS, 2005; HAWKINS; HATTORI, 2006; TSIMPLI; MASTROPAVLOU, 2007; TSIMPLI; DIMITRAKOPOULOU, 2007). The Interpretability Hypothesis (TSIMPLI; MASTROPAVLOU, 2007; TSIMPLI; DIMITRAKOPOULOU, 2007) claims that only uninterpretable features suffer a post-critical period failure and, therefore, cannot be acquired. Conversely, Full Access approaches claim that L2 learners have full access to UG’s entire inventory of features, and that L1/L2 differences obtain outside the narrow syntax. The phenomenon studied herein, adult acquisition of the Overt Pronoun Constraint (OPC) (MONTALBETTI, 1984) and inflected infinitives in nonnative Portuguese, challenges the Interpretability hypothesis insofar as it makes the wrong predictions for what is observed. The present data demonstrate that advanced learners of L2 Portuguese acquire the OPC and the syntax and semantics of inflected infinitives with native-like accuracy. Since inflected infinitives require the acquisition of new uninterpretable φ-features, the present data provide evidence in contra Tsimpli and colleagues’ Interpretability Hypothesis.

The multidimensional character of accounting numbers

This paper takes as its motivation debates surrounding the multiplicity of functions of accounting information. We are in particular interested in the existential function of accounting numbers and argue that numerical signs having discursive possibilities may acquire new meanings through reframing. Drawing on Goffman’s (1974) frame analysis and Vollmer’s (2007) work on three-dimensional character of numerical signs, we explore the ways in which numbers can go through instantaneous transformations and tell a new kind of story. In our analysis, we look at the main historical developments and current controversies surrounding accounting practice with a specific focus on scandals involving numerical signs as moments where our understandings and the discursive function of previously inoffensive signs shifts through a collective involvement. We map the purpose and usefulness of Vollmer’s three-dimensional framework in the analysis of selected financial accounting practices and scandals as examples of instances where numbers are reframed to suddenly perform a different existential function in context of their calculative and symptomatic dimensions.

The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: a model study

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.