Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

The multidimensional measurement of the positive symptoms of psychosis

The measures most frequently used to assess psychotic symptoms fail to reflect important dimensions. The Psychotic Symptom Rating Scale (PSYRATS) aims to capture the multidimensional nature of auditory hallucinations and delusions. Individuals (N = 276) who had recently relapsed with positive symptoms completed the auditory hallucinations and delusions PSYRATS scales. These scores were compared with the relevant items from the SAPS and PANSS, and with measures of current mood. Total scores and distribution of items of the PSYRATS scales are presented and correlated with other measures. Positive symptom items from the SAPS and PANSS reflected the more objective aspects of PSYRATS ratings of auditory hallucinations and delusions (frequency and conviction) but were relatively poor at measuring distress. A major strength of the PSYRATS scales is the specific measurement of the distress dimension of symptoms, which is a key target of psychological intervention. It is advised that the PSYRATS should not be used as a total score alone, whilst further research is needed to clarify the best use of potential subscales. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficient shock capturing for isentropic flows using arithmetic averaging

A shock capturing scheme is presented for the equations of isentropic flow based on upwind differencing applied to a locally linearized set of Riemann problems. This includes the two-dimensional shallow water equations using the familiar gas dynamics analogy. An average of the flow variables across the interface between cells is required, and this average is chosen to be the arithmetic mean for computational efficiency, leading to arithmetic averaging. This is in contrast to usual ‘square root’ averages found in this type of Riemann solver where the computational expense can be prohibitive. The scheme is applied to a two-dimensional dam-break problem and the approximate solution compares well with those given by other authors.

An analysis of arithmetic averaging in approximate Riemann solvers with an application to steady, supercritical flows

An analysis of various arithmetic averaging procedures for approximate Riemann solvers is made with a specific emphasis on efficiency and a jump capturing property. The various alternatives discussed are intended for future work, as well as the more immediate problem of steady, supercritical free-surface flows. Numerical results are shown for two test problems.

A weak formulation of Roe's approximate Riemann Solver applied to 'Barotropic' flows

A weak formulation of Roe's approximate Riemann solver is applied to the equations of ‘barotropic’ flow, including the shallow water equations, and it is shown that this leads to an approximate Riemann solver recently presented for such flows.

A Riemann solver for compressible flow of a real gas in a Lagrangian frame

An approximate Riemann solver is presented for the compressible flow equations with a general (convex) equation of state in a Lagrangian frame of reference.