Complexity theory and planning: examining 'fractals' for organising policy domains in planning practice

This article examines selected methodological insights that complexity theory might provide for planning. In particular, it focuses on the concept of fractals and, through this concept, how ways of organising policy domains across scales might have particular causal impacts. The aim of this article is therefore twofold: (a) to position complexity theory within social science through a ‘generalised discourse’, thereby orienting it to particular ontological and epistemological biases and (b) to reintroduce a comparatively new concept – fractals – from complexity theory in a way that is consistent with the ontological and epistemological biases argued for, and expand on the contribution that this might make to planning. Complexity theory is theoretically positioned as a neo-systems theory with reasons elaborated. Fractal systems from complexity theory are systems that exhibit self-similarity across scales. This concept (as previously introduced by the author in ‘Fractal spaces in planning and governance’) is further developed in this article to (a) illustrate the ontological and epistemological claims for complexity theory, and to (b) draw attention to ways of organising policy systems across scales to emphasise certain characteristics of the systems – certain distinctions. These distinctions when repeated across scales reinforce associated processes/values/end goals resulting in particular policy outcomes. Finally, empirical insights from two case studies in two different policy domains are presented and compared to illustrate the workings of fractals in planning practice.

Native speakers and task performance: comparing effects on complexity, fluency, and lexical diversity

This article argues that a native-speaker baseline is a neglected dimension of studies into second language (L2) performance. If we investigate how learners perform language tasks, we should distinguish what performance features are due to their processing an L2 and which are due to their performing a particular task. Having defined what we mean by “native speaker,” we present the background to a research study into task features on nonnative task performance, designed to include native-speaker data as a baseline for interpreting nonnative-speaker performance. The nonnative results, published in this journal (Tavakoli & Foster, 2008) are recapitulated and then the native-speaker results are presented and discussed in the light of them. The study is guided by the assumption that limited attentional resources impact on L2 performance and explores how narrative design features—namely complexity of storyline and tightness of narrative structure— affect complexity, fluency, accuracy, and lexical diversity in language. The results show that both native and nonnative speakers are prompted by storyline complexity to use more subordinated language, but narrative structure had different effects on native and nonnative fluency. The learners, who were based in either London or Tehran, did not differ in their performance when compared to each other, except in lexical diversity, where the learners in London were close to native-speaker levels. The implications of the results for the applicability of Levelt’s model of speaking to an L2 are discussed, as is the potential for further L2 research using native speakers as a baseline.

Ever decreasing circles: speech production in semantic dementia

We explored the impact of a degraded semantic system on lexical, morphological and syntactic complexity in language production. We analysed transcripts from connected speech samples from eight patients with semantic dementia (SD) and eight age-matched healthy speakers. The frequency distributions of nouns and verbs were compared for hand-scored data and data extracted using text-analysis software. Lexical measures showed the predicted pattern for nouns and verbs in hand-scored data, and for nouns in software-extracted data, with fewer low frequency items in the speech of the patients relative to controls. The distribution of complex morpho-syntactic forms for the SD group showed a reduced range, with fewer constructions that required multiple auxiliaries and inflections. Finally, the distribution of syntactic constructions also differed between groups, with a pattern that reflects the patients’ characteristic anomia and constraints on morpho-syntactic complexity. The data are in line with previous findings of an absence of gross syntactic errors or violations in SD speech. Alterations in the distributions of morphology and syntax, however, support constraint satisfaction models of speech production in which there is no hard boundary between lexical retrieval and grammatical encoding.

Viruses in soils: morphological diversity and abundance in the rhizosphere

Soil viruses are potentially of great importance as they may influence the ecology and evolution of soil biological communities through both an ability to transfer genes from host to host and as a potential cause of microbial mortality. Despite this importance, the area of soil virology is understudied. Here, we report the isolation and preliminary characterisation of viruses from soils in the Dundee area of Scotland. Different virus morphotypes including tailed, polyhedral (spherical), rod shaped, filamentous and bacilliform particles were detected in the soil samples. An apparent predominance of small spherical and filamentous bacteriophages was observed, whereas tailed bacteriophages were significantly less abundant. In this report, we also present observations and characterisation of viruses from different soil functional domains surrounding wheat roots: rhizosheath, rhizosphere and bulk soil. In spite of the differences in abundance of bacterial communities in these domains, no significant variations in viral population structure in terms of morphology and abundance were found. Typically, there were approximately 1.1–1.2 × 109 virions g−1 dry weight, implicating remarkable differences in virus-to-bacteria ratios in domains close to roots, rhizosphere and rhizosheath (approximately 0.27) and in bulk soil (approximately 4.68).

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

Dynamical complexity in a mean-field model of human EEG

A recently proposed mean-field theory of mammalian cortex rhythmogenesis describes the salient features of electrical activity in the cerebral macrocolumn, with the use of inhibitory and excitatory neuronal populations (Liley et al 2002). This model is capable of producing a range of important human EEG (electroencephalogram) features such as the alpha rhythm, the 40 Hz activity thought to be associated with conscious awareness (Bojak & Liley 2007) and the changes in EEG spectral power associated with general anesthetic effect (Bojak & Liley 2005). From the point of view of nonlinear dynamics, the model entails a vast parameter space within which multistability, pseudoperiodic regimes, various routes to chaos, fat fractals and rich bifurcation scenarios occur for physiologically relevant parameter values (van Veen & Liley 2006). The origin and the character of this complex behaviour, and its relevance for EEG activity will be illustrated. The existence of short-lived unstable brain states will also be discussed in terms of the available theoretical and experimental results. A perspective on future analysis will conclude the presentation.

Metaphors in complexity theory and planning

This article reviews the use of complexity theory in planning theory using the theory of metaphors for theory transfer and theory construction. The introduction to the article presents the author's positioning of planning theory. The first section thereafter provides a general background of the trajectory of development of complexity theory and discusses the rationale of using the theory of metaphors for evaluating the use of complexity theory in planning. The second section introduces the workings of metaphors in general and theory-constructing metaphors in particular, drawing out an understanding of how to proceed with an evaluative approach towards an analysis of the use of complexity theory in planning. The third section presents two case studies – reviews of two articles – to illustrate how the framework might be employed. It then discusses the implications of the evaluation for the question ‘can complexity theory contribute to planning?’ The concluding section discusses the employment of the ‘theory of metaphors’ for evaluating theory transfer and draws out normative suggestions for engaging in theory transfer using the metaphorical route.

Sometimes they use it, sometimes they don’t: an epistemological discussion of L2 morphological production and its use as a competence measurement

The main goal of all approaches to adult second language acquisition (SLA) is to accurately describe and explain the overall acquisition process. To accomplish this, SLA researchers must come to agree on some key issues. In this commentary, I defend the necessity of the competence/performance distinction and how this relates to why an examination of morphological production presents challenges for SLA research. I suggest that such a methodology is meaningful only when it is dovetailed with procedures that test for related syntactic/semantic knowledge.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

A molecular, morphological and cytological investigation of the identity of non-native Ludwigia (Onagraceae) populations in Britain

A combined molecular, morphological and cytological analysis was used to study the identity and number of species of Ludwigia section Oligospermum occurring in British waterways. Only one taxon was identified for which the name L. grandiflora subsp. hexapetala (Hook. & Arn.) G.L. Nesom & Kartesz is preferred. A chromosome count of 2n = 80 was made for all plants tested and DNA evidence demonstrates that at least two clones are present in Britain. Morphological characters to differentiate L.grandiflora subsp. hexapetala and L. peploides subsp. montevidensis (Spreng.) P.H. Raven are provided. Though the production of fruit in Britain by apparently isolated populations is noted, repeated introduction into the wild from gardens is judged to be primarily responsible for the British distribution of the taxon. Legislative implications are considered and an amendment to Schedule 9 of the UK Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981) is strongly advocated.

The time-course of morphological constraints: Evidence from eye-movements during reading

Lexical compounds in English are constrained in that the non-head noun can be an irregular but not a regular plural (e.g. mice eater vs. *rats eater), a contrast that has been argued to derive from a morphological constraint on modifiers inside compounds. In addition, bare nouns are preferred over plural forms inside compounds (e.g. mouse eater vs. mice eater), a contrast that has been ascribed to the semantics of compounds. Measuring eyemovements during reading, this study examined how morphological and semantic information become available over time during the processing of a compound. We found that the morphological constraint affected both early and late eye-movement measures, whereas the semantic constraint for singular non-heads only affected late measures of processing. These results indicate that morphological information becomes available earlier than semantic information during the processing of compounds.

The time-course of morphological constraints: a study of plurals inside derived words

The avoidance of regular but not irregular plurals inside compounds (e.g. *rats eater vs. mice eater) has been one of the most widely studied morphological phenomena in the psycholinguistics literature. To examine whether the constraints that are responsible for this contrast have any general significance beyond compounding, we investigated derived word forms containing regular and irregular plurals in two experiments. Experiment 1 was an offline acceptability judgment task, and experiment 2 measured eye movements during reading derived words containing regular and irregular plurals and uninflected base nouns. The results from both experiments show that the constraint against regular plurals inside compounds generalizes to derived words. We argue that this constraint cannot be reduced to phonological properties, but is instead morphological in nature. The eye-movement data provide detailed information on the time-course of processing derived word forms indicating that early stages of processing are affected by a general constraint that disallows inflected words from feeding derivational processes, and that the more specific constraint against regular plurals comes in at a subsequent later stage of processing. We argue that these results are consistent with stage-based models of language processing.

The time-course of morphological processing in a second language

We report findings from psycholinguistic experiments investigating the detailed timing of processing morphologically complex words by proficient adult second (L2) language learners of English in comparison to adult native (L1) speakers of English. The first study employed the masked priming technique to investigate -ed forms with a group of advanced Arabic-speaking learners of English. The results replicate previously found L1/L2 differences in morphological priming, even though in the present experiment an extra temporal delay was offered after the presentation of the prime words. The second study examined the timing of constraints against inflected forms inside derived words in English using the eye-movement monitoring technique and an additional acceptability judgment task with highly advanced Dutch L2 learners of English in comparison to adult L1 English controls. Whilst offline the L2 learners performed native-like, the eye-movement data showed that their online processing was not affected by the morphological constraint against regular plurals inside derived words in the same way as in native speakers. Taken together, these findings indicate that L2 learners are not just slower than native speakers in processing morphologically complex words, but that the L2 comprehension system employs real-time grammatical analysis (in this case, morphological information) less than the L1 system.

J-measure based hybrid pruning for complexity reduction in classification rules

Prism is a modular classification rule generation method based on the ‘separate and conquer’ approach that is alternative to the rule induction approach using decision trees also known as ‘divide and conquer’. Prism often achieves a similar level of classification accuracy compared with decision trees, but tends to produce a more compact noise tolerant set of classification rules. As with other classification rule generation methods, a principle problem arising with Prism is that of overfitting due to over-specialised rules. In addition, over-specialised rules increase the associated computational complexity. These problems can be solved by pruning methods. For the Prism method, two pruning algorithms have been introduced recently for reducing overfitting of classification rules - J-pruning and Jmax-pruning. Both algorithms are based on the J-measure, an information theoretic means for quantifying the theoretical information content of a rule. Jmax-pruning attempts to exploit the J-measure to its full potential because J-pruning does not actually achieve this and may even lead to underfitting. A series of experiments have proved that Jmax-pruning may outperform J-pruning in reducing overfitting. However, Jmax-pruning is computationally relatively expensive and may also lead to underfitting. This paper reviews the Prism method and the two existing pruning algorithms above. It also proposes a novel pruning algorithm called Jmid-pruning. The latter is based on the J-measure and it reduces overfitting to a similar level as the other two algorithms but is better in avoiding underfitting and unnecessary computational effort. The authors conduct an experimental study on the performance of the Jmid-pruning algorithm in terms of classification accuracy and computational efficiency. The algorithm is also evaluated comparatively with the J-pruning and Jmax-pruning algorithms.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.