Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ozone pollution

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an “environmentally friendly” fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (109) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.

Pesticides, preference heterogeneity and environmental taxes

In this paper we present results from two choice experiments (CE), designed to take account of the different negative externalities associated with pesticide use in agricultural production. For cereal production, the most probable impact of pesticide use is a reduction in environmental quality. For fruit and vegetable production, the negative externality is on consumer health. Using latent class models we find evidence of the presence of preference heterogeneity in addition to reasonably high willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for a reduction in the use of pesticides for both environmental quality and consumer health. To place our WTP estimates in a policy context we convert them into an equivalent pesticide tax by type of externality. Our tax estimates suggest that pesticide taxes based on the primary externality resulting from a particular mode of agricultural production are a credible policy option that warrants further consideration.

Whole crop cereals 2. Prediction of apparent digestibility and energy value from in vitro digestion techniques and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy and of chemical composition by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy

Samples of whole crop wheat (WCW, n = 134) and whole crop barley (WCB, n = 16) were collected from commercial farms in the UK over a 2-year period (2003/2004 and 2004/2005). Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was compared with laboratory and in vitro digestibility measures to predict digestible organic matter in the dry matter (DOMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) contents measured in vivo using sheep. Spectral models using the mean spectra of two scans were compared with those using individual spectra (duplicate spectra). Overall NIRS accurately predicted the concentration of chemical components in whole crop cereals apart from crude protein. ammonia-nitrogen, water-soluble carbohydrates, fermentation acids and solubility values. In addition. the spectral models had higher prediction power for in vivo DOMD and ME than chemical components or in vitro digestion methods. Overall there Was a benefit from the use of duplicate spectra rather than mean spectra and this was especially so for predicting in vivo DOMD and ME where the sample population size was smaller. The spectral models derived deal equally well with WCW and WCB and Would he of considerable practical value allowing rapid determination of nutritive value of these forages before their use in diets of productive animals. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

A cross-sectional study of reproductive performance of smallholder dairy cows in coastal Tanzania

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms from a mixed dairy farming system in Tanga, Tanzania, between January and April 1999. We estimated the frequency and determinants of long calving interval (LCI), retention of fetal membrane (RFM), dystocia, and abortion in smallholder crossbred cattle and explored birth trends. The mean calving interval was 500 days and birth rate was 65 per 100 cow-years. Dystocia was reported to affect 58% of calvings, and 17.2% of animals suffered RFM. Using mixed effect models, the variables associated with LCI, RFM and dystocia were breed, level of exotic blood and condition score. Zebu breeding was associated with LCI (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, p = 0.041) and Friesian breeding with lower odds for RF (OR = 0.26, p = 0.020). Animals with higher levels of exotic blood had lower odds for evidence of dystocia (OR = 0.45, p = 0.021). Evidence of dystocia was significantly associated with poor condition score (beta = -1.10, p = 0.001). Our observations suggest that LCIs are common in smallholder dairy farms in this region and a likely source of economic loss. Dystocia, RFM, poor condition score and mineral deficiency were common problems and were possibly linked to LCI.

Oestrogenic activity of benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate and butylphenylmethylpropional (Lilial) in MCF7 human breast cancer cells in vitro

Benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate and butylphenylmethylpropional (Lilial) are added to bodycare cosmetics used around the human breast. We report here that all three compounds possess oestrogenic activity in assays using the oestrogen-responsive MCF7 human breast cancer cell line. At 3 000 000-fold molar excess, they were able to partially displace [H-3]oestradiol from recombinant human oestrogen receptors ER alpha and ER beta, and from cytosolic ER of MCF7 cells. At concentrations in the range of 5 x 10(-5) to 5 x 10(-4) M, they were able to increase the expression of a stably integrated oestrogen-responsive reporter gene (ERE-CAT) and of the endogenous oestrogen-responsive pS2 gene in MCF7 cells, albeit to a lesser extent than with 10(-8) M 17 beta-oestradiol. They increased the proliferation of oestrogen-dependent MCF7 cells over 7 days, which could be inhibited by the antioestrogen fulvestrant, suggesting an ER-mediated mechanism. Although the extent of stimulation of proliferation over 7 days was lower with these compounds than with 10(-8) M 17 beta-oestradiol, given a longer time period of 35 days the extent of proliferation with 10(-4) M benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate or butylphenylmethylpropional increased to the same magnitude as observed with 10(-8) M 17 beta-oestradiol over 14 days. This demonstrates that benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate and butylphenylmethylpropional are further chemical components of cosmetic products which give oestrogenic responses in a human breast cancer cell line in culture. Further research is now needed to investigate whether oestrogenic responses are detectable using in vivo models and the extent to which these compounds might be absorbed through human skin and might enter human breast tissues. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evolutionary history of vegetative reproduction in Porpidia s. l. (lichen-forming ascomycota)

The evolutionary history of gains and losses of vegetative reproductive propagules (soredia) in Porpidia s.l., a group of lichen-forming ascomycetes, was clarified using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches to monophyly tests and a combined MCMC and maximum likelihood approach to ancestral character state reconstructions. The MCMC framework provided confidence estimates for the reconstructions of relationships and ancestral character states, which formed the basis for tests of evolutionary hypotheses. Monophyly tests rejected all hypotheses that predicted any clustering of reproductive modes in extant taxa. In addition, a nearest-neighbor statistic could not reject the hypothesis that the vegetative reproductive mode is randomly distributed throughout the group. These results show that transitions between presence and absence of the vegetative reproductive mode within Porpidia s.l. occurred several times and independently of each other. Likelihood reconstructions of ancestral character states at selected nodes suggest that - contrary to previous thought - the ancestor to Porpidia s.l. already possessed the vegetative reproductive mode. Furthermore, transition rates are reconstructed asymmetrically with the vegetative reproductive mode being gained at a much lower rate than it is lost. A cautious note has to be added, because a simulation study showed that the ancestral character state reconstructions were highly dependent on taxon sampling. However, our central conclusions, particularly the higher rate of change from vegetative reproductive mode present to absent than vice versa within Porpidia s.l., were found to be broadly independent of taxon sampling. [Ancestral character state reconstructions; Ascomycota, Bayesian inference; hypothesis testing; likelihood; MCMC; Porpidia; reproductive systems]

Complete filling of zeolite frameworks with polyalkynes formed in situ by transition-metal ion catalysts

We report the use of transition-metal-exchanged zeolites as media for the catalytic formation and encapsulation of both polyethyne and polypropyne, and computer modeling studies on the composites so formed. Alkyne gas was absorbed into the pores of zeolite Y (Faujasite) exchanged with transition-metal cations [Fe(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Ni(II), and Zn(II)]. Ni(II) and Zn(II) were found to be the most efficient for the production of poly-ynes. These cations were also found to be effective in polymer generation when exchanged in zeolites mordenite and beta. The resulting powdered samples were characterized by FTIR, Raman, diffuse reflectance electronic spectroscopy, TEM, and elemental analysis, revealing, nearly complete loading of the zeolite channels for the majority of the samples. Based on the experimental carbon content, we have derived the percentage of channel filling, and the proportion of the channels containing a single polymer chain for mordenite. Experimentally, the channels for Y are close to complete filling for polyethyne (PE) and polypropyne (PP), and this is also true for polyethyne in mordenite. Computer modeling studies using Cerius2 show that the channels of mordenite can only accept a single polymer chain of PP, in which case these channels are also completely filled.

Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ground-level ozone pollution

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an "environmentally friendly'' fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O-3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O-3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O-3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (10(9)) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.

Toughness & oblique metalcutting

The implications of whether new surfaces in cutting are formed just by plastic flow past the tool or by some fracturelike separation process involving significant surface work, are discussed. Oblique metalcutting is investigated using the ideas contained in a new algebraic model for the orthogonal machining of metals (Atkins, A. G., 2003, "Modeling Metalcutting Using Modern Ductile Fracture Mechanics: Quantitative Explanations for Some Longstanding Problems," Int. J. Mech. Sci., 45, pp. 373–396) in which significant surface work (ductile fracture toughnesses) is incorporated. The model is able to predict explicit material-dependent primary shear plane angles and provides explanations for a variety of well-known effects in cutting, such as the reduction of at small uncut chip thicknesses; the quasilinear plots of cutting force versus depth of cut; the existence of a positive force intercept in such plots; why, in the size-effect regime of machining, anomalously high values of yield stress are determined; and why finite element method simulations of cutting have to employ a "separation criterion" at the tool tip. Predictions from the new analysis for oblique cutting (including an investigation of Stabler's rule for the relation between the chip flow velocity angle C and the angle of blade inclination i) compare consistently and favorably with experimental results.

Can the cardiomyocyte cell cycle be reprogrammed?

Cardiac repair following myocardial injury is restricted due to the limited proliferative potential of adult cardiomyocytes. The ability of mammalian cardiomyocytes to proliferate is lost shortly after birth as cardiomyocytes withdraw from the cell cycle and differentiate. We do not fully understand the molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate this cell cycle withdrawal, although if we could it might lead to the discovery of novel therapeutic targets for improving cardiac repair following myocardial injury. For the last decade, researchers have investigated cardiomyocyte cell cycle control, commonly using transgenic mouse models or recombinant adenoviruses to manipulate cell cycle regulators in vivo or in vitro. This review discusses cardiomyocyte cell cycle regulation and summarises recent data from studies manipulating the expressions and activities of cell cycle regulators in cardiomyocytes. The validity of therapeutic strategies that aim to reinstate the proliferative potential of cardiomyocytes to improve myocardial repair following injury will be discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Social networks and positive and negative affect

We followed 100 university students in the UK for one week, instructing them to record all face-to-face, phone and digital contacts during the day as well as their positive and negative affect. We wanted to see how positive and negative affect spread around a social network while taking into account participants’ socio-demographic data, personality, general health and gratitude scores. We focused on the participants’ connections with those in their class; excluding friends and family outside this group. The data was analysed using actor-based models implemented in SIENA. Results show differences between positive and negative affect dynamics in this environment and an influence of personality traits on the average number and rate of communication.

Bistable systems with stochastic noise: virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations

The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points of complex systems. Sometimes, in order to understand the time series of given observables exhibiting bimodal distributions, simple one-dimensional Langevin models are fitted to reproduce the observed statistical properties, and used to investing-ate the projected dynamics of the observable. This is of great relevance for studying potential catastrophic changes in the properties of the underlying system or resonant behaviours like those related to stochastic resonance-like mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework for encasing this kind of studies, using simple box models of the oceanic circulation and choosing as observable the strength of the thermohaline circulation. We study the statistical properties of the transitions between the two modes of operation of the thermohaline circulation under symmetric boundary forcings and test their agreement with simplified one-dimensional phenomenological theories. We extend our analysis to include stochastic resonance-like amplification processes. We conclude that fitted one-dimensional Langevin models, when closely scrutinised, may result to be more ad-hoc than they seem, lacking robustness and/or well-posedness. They should be treated with care, more as an empiric descriptive tool than as methodology with predictive power.

Extreme precipitation and climate change: the potential impacts on flooding

Recent extreme precipitation events have caused widespread flooding to the UK. The prediction of the intensity of such events in a warmer climate is important for adaption strategies against future events. This study highlights the importance of using high-resolution models to predict these events. Using a high-resolution GCM it is shown that extreme precipitation events are predicted to become more frequent under the IPCC A1B warming scenario. It is also shown that current forecast models have difficulty in predicting the location, timing and intensity of small scale precipitation in areas with significant orography.

Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF.