Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years

This paper reports on a set of paleoclimate simulations for 21, 16, 14, 11 and 6 ka (thousands of years ago) carried out with the Community Climate Model, Version 1 (CCM1) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This climate model uses four interactive components that were not available in our previous simulations with the NCAR CCM0 (COHMAP, 1988Science, 241, 1043–1052; Wright et al., 1993Global Climate Since the Last Glocial Maximum, University of Minnesota Press, MN): soil moisture, snow hydrology, sea-ice, and mixed-layer ocean temperature. The new simulations also use new estimates of ice sheet height and size from ( Peltier 1994, Science, 265, 195–201), and synchronize the astronomically dated orbital forcing with the ice sheet and atmospheric CO2 levels corrected from radiocarbon years to calendar years. The CCM1 simulations agree with the previous simulations in their most general characteristics. The 21 ka climate is cold and dry, in response to the presence of the ice sheets and lowered CO2 levels. The period 14–6 ka has strengthened northern summer monsoons and warm mid-latitude continental interiors in response to orbital changes. Regional differences between the CCM1 and CCM0 simulations can be traced to the effects of either the new interactive model components or the new boundary conditions. CCM1 simulates climate processes more realistically, but has additional degrees of freedom that can allow the model to ‘drift’ toward less realistic solutions in some instances. The CCM1 simulations are expressed in terms of equilibrium vegetation using BIOME 1, and indicate large shifts in biomes. Northern tundra and forest biomes are displaced southward at glacial maximum and subtropical deserts contract in the mid-Holocene when monsoons strengthen. These vegetation changes could, if simulated interactively, introduce additional climate feedbacks. The total area of vegetated land remains nearly constant through time because the exposure of continental shelves with lowered sea level largely compensates for the land covered by the expanded ice sheets.

Transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies

The transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies in the midlatitudes is investigated using a three-layer QG model coupled in perpetual winter conditions to a slab oceanic mixed layer in the North Atlantic. The SST anomalies are diagnosed from a coupled run and prescribed as initial conditions, but are free to evolve. The initial evolution of the atmospheric response is similar to that obtained with a prescribed SST anomaly, starting as a quasi-linear baroclinic and then quickly evolving into a growing equivalent barotropic one. Because of the heat flux damping, the SST anomaly amplitude slowly decreases, albeit with little change in pattern. Correspondingly, the atmospheric response only increases until it reaches a maximum amplitude after about 1–3.5 months, depending on the SST anomaly considered. The response is similar to that at equilibrium in the fixed SST case, but it is 1.5–2 times smaller, and then slowly decays away.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison

We compare the quasi-equilibrium heat balances, as well as their responses to 4×CO2 perturbation, among three global climate models with the aim to identify and explain inter-model differences in ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes. We find that, in quasi-equilibrium, convective and mixed layer processes, as well as eddy-related processes, cause cooling of the subsurface ocean. The cooling is balanced by warming caused by advective and diapycnally diffusive processes. We also find that in the CO2-perturbed climates the largest contribution to OHU comes from changes in vertical mixing processes and the mean circulation, particularly in the extra-tropics, caused both by changes in wind forcing, and by changes in high-latitude buoyancy forcing. There is a substantial warming in the tropics, a significant part of which occurs because of changes in horizontal advection in extra-tropics. Diapycnal diffusion makes only a weak contribution to the OHU, mainly in the tropics, due to increased stratification. There are important qualitative differences in the contribution of eddy-induced advection and isopycnal diffusion to the OHU among the models. The former is related to the different values of the coefficients used in the corresponding scheme. The latter is related to the different tapering formulations of the isopycnal diffusion scheme. These differences affect the OHU in the deep ocean, which is substantial in two of the models, the dominant region of deep warming being the Southern Ocean. However, most of the OHU takes place above 2000 m, and the three models are quantitatively similar in their global OHU efficiency and its breakdown among processes and as a function of latitude.

Atmospheric chemistry and physics in the atmosphere of a developed megacity (London): an overview of the REPARTEE experiment and its conclusions

The REgents PARk and Tower Environmental Experiment (REPARTEE) comprised two campaigns in London in October 2006 and October/November 2007. The experiment design involved measurements at a heavily trafficked roadside site, two urban background sites and an elevated site at 160–190 m above ground on the BT Tower, supplemented in the second campaign by Doppler lidar measurements of atmospheric vertical structure. A wide range of measurements of airborne particle physical metrics and chemical composition were made as well as measurements of a considerable range of gas phase species and the fluxes of both particulate and gas phase substances. Significant findings include (a) demonstration of the evaporation of traffic-generated nanoparticles during both horizontal and vertical atmospheric transport; (b) generation of a large base of information on the fluxes of nanoparticles, accumulation mode particles and specific chemical components of the aerosol and a range of gas phase species, as well as the elucidation of key processes and comparison with emissions inventories; (c) quantification of vertical gradients in selected aerosol and trace gas species which has demonstrated the important role of regional transport in influencing concentrations of sulphate, nitrate and secondary organic compounds within the atmosphere of London; (d) generation of new data on the atmospheric structure and turbulence above London, including the estimation of mixed layer depths; (e) provision of new data on trace gas dispersion in the urban atmosphere through the release of purposeful tracers; (f) the determination of spatial differences in aerosol particle size distributions and their interpretation in terms of sources and physico-chemical transformations; (g) studies of the nocturnal oxidation of nitrogen oxides and of the diurnal behaviour of nitrate aerosol in the urban atmosphere, and (h) new information on the chemical composition and source apportionment of particulate matter size fractions in the atmosphere of London derived both from bulk chemical analysis and aerosol mass spectrometry with two instrument types.

An optimal inverse method using Doppler lidar measurements to estimate the surface sensible heat flux

Inverse methods are widely used in various fields of atmospheric science. However, such methods are not commonly used within the boundary-layer community, where robust observations of surface fluxes are a particular concern. We present a new technique for deriving surface sensible heat fluxes from boundary-layer turbulence observations using an inverse method. Doppler lidar observations of vertical velocity variance are combined with two well-known mixed-layer scaling forward models for a convective boundary layer (CBL). The inverse method is validated using large-eddy simulations of a CBL with increasing wind speed. The majority of the estimated heat fluxes agree within error with the proscribed heat flux, across all wind speeds tested. The method is then applied to Doppler lidar data from the Chilbolton Observatory, UK. Heat fluxes are compared with those from a mast-mounted sonic anemometer. Errors in estimated heat fluxes are on average 18 %, an improvement on previous techniques. However, a significant negative bias is observed (on average −63%) that is more pronounced in the morning. Results are improved for the fully-developed CBL later in the day, which suggests that the bias is largely related to the choice of forward model, which is kept deliberately simple for this study. Overall, the inverse method provided reasonable flux estimates for the simple case of a CBL. Results shown here demonstrate that this method has promise in utilizing ground-based remote sensing to derive surface fluxes. Extension of the method is relatively straight-forward, and could include more complex forward models, or other measurements.

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: a case study at 6000 years B.P.

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10–5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCMl, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100–200 km north in most sectors. Both CCMl and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets

On the observability of turbulent transport rates by Argo: supporting evidence from an inversion experiment

Although estimation of turbulent transport parameters using inverse methods is not new, there is little evaluation of the method in the literature. Here, it is shown that extended observation of the broad scale hydrography by Argo provides a path to improved estimates of regional turbulent transport rates. Results from a 20 year ocean state estimate produced with the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework provide supporting evidence. Turbulent transport parameter maps are estimated under the constraints of fitting the extensive collection of Argo profiles collected through 2011. The adjusted parameters dramatically reduce misfits to in situ profiles as compared with earlier ECCO solutions. They also yield a clear reduction in the model drift away from observations over multi-century long simulations, both for assimilated variables (temperature and salinity) and independent variables (bio-geochemical tracers). Despite the minimal constraints imposed specifically on the estimated parameters, their geography is physically plausible and exhibits close connections with the upper ocean ocean stratification as observed by Argo. The estimated parameter adjustments furthermore have first order impacts on upper-ocean stratification and mixed layer depths over 20 years. These results identify the constraint of fitting Argo profiles as an effective observational basis for regional turbulent transport rates. Uncertainties and further improvements of the method are discussed.

The Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison project (ORA-IP)

Uncertainty in ocean analysis methods and deficiencies in the observing system are major obstacles for the reliable reconstruction of the past ocean climate. The variety of existing ocean reanalyses is exploited in a multi-reanalysis ensemble to improve the ocean state estimation and to gauge uncertainty levels. The ensemble-based analysis of signal-to-noise ratio allows the identification of ocean characteristics for which the estimation is robust (such as tropical mixed-layer-depth, upper ocean heat content), and where large uncertainty exists (deep ocean, Southern Ocean, sea ice thickness, salinity), providing guidance for future enhancement of the observing and data assimilation systems.

Observations of supercooling and frazil ice formation in the Laptev Sea coastal polynya

This paper examines a hydrographic response to the wind‐driven coastal polynya activity over the southeastern Laptev Sea shelf for April–May 2008, using a combination of Environmental Satellite (Envisat) advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) and TerraSAR‐X satellite imagery, aerial photography, meteorological data, and SBE‐37 salinity‐temperature‐depth and acoustic Doppler current profiler land‐fast ice edgemoored instruments. When ASAR observed the strongest end‐of‐April polynya event with frazil ice formation, the moored instruments showed maximal acoustical scattering within the surface mixed layer, and the seawater temperatures were either at or 0.02°C below freezing. We also find evidence of the persistent horizontal temperature and salinity gradients across the fast ice edge to have the signature of geostrophic flow adjustment as predicted by polynya models.

Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice–atmosphere and ice–ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice–ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities.