Influence of vegetation on the local climate and hydrology in the tropics: sensitivity to soil parameters

Land use change with accompanying major modifications to the vegetation cover is widespread in the tropics, due to increasing demands for agricultural land, and may have significant impacts on the climate. This study investigates (1) the influence of vegetation on the local climate in the tropics; (2) how that influence varies from region to region; and (3) how the sensitivity of the local climate to vegetation, and hence land use change, depends on the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. A series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre atmospheric model, HadAM3, are described in which the influence of vegetation in the tropics is assessed by comparing the results of integrations with and without tropical vegetation. The sensitivity of the results to the soil characteristics is then explored by repeating the experiments with a differing, but equally valid, description of soil hydraulic parameters. The results have shown that vegetation has a significant moderating effect on the climate throughout the tropics by cooling the surface through enhanced latent heat fluxes. The influence of vegetation is, however, seasonally dependent, with much greater impacts during the dry season when the availability of surface moisture is limited. Furthermore, there are significant regional variations both in terms of the magnitude of the cooling and in the response of the precipitation. Not all regions show a feedback of vegetation on the local precipitation; this result has been related both to vegetation type and to the prevailing meteorological conditions. An important finding has been the sensitivity of the results to the specification of the soil hydraulic parameters. The introduction of more freely draining soils has changed the soil-moisture contents of the control, vegetated system and has reduced, significantly, the climate sensitivity to vegetation and by implication, land use change. Changes to the soil parameters have also had an impact on the soil hydrology and its interaction with vegetation, by altering the partitioning between fast and slow runoff processes. These results raise important questions about the representation of highly heterogeneous soil characteristics in climate models, as well as the potential influence of land use change on the soil characteristics themselves.

Fitting models for the joint action of two drugs using SAS(R)

Combinations of drugs are increasingly being used for a wide variety of diseases and conditions. A pre-clinical study may allow the investigation of the response at a large number of dose combinations. In determining the response to a drug combination, interest may lie in seeking evidence of synergism, in which the joint action is greater than the actions of the individual drugs, or of antagonism, in which it is less. Two well-known response surface models representing no interaction are Loewe additivity and Bliss independence, and Loewe or Bliss synergism or antagonism is defined relative to these. We illustrate an approach to fitting these models for the case in which the marginal single drug dose-response relationships are represented by four-parameter logistic curves with common upper and lower limits, and where the response variable is normally distributed with a common variance about the dose-response curve. When the dose-response curves are not parallel, the relative potency of the two drugs varies according to the magnitude of the desired effect and the models for Loewe additivity and synergism/antagonism cannot be explicitly expressed. We present an iterative approach to fitting these models without the assumption of parallel dose-response curves. A goodness-of-fit test based on residuals is also described. Implementation using the SAS NLIN procedure is illustrated using data from a pre-clinical study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of the global gene expression profiles produced by methylparaben, n-butylparaben and 17 beta-oestradiol in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Since the alkyl esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) can be measured intact in the human breast and possess oestrogenic properties, it has been suggested that they could contribute to an aberrant burden of oestrogen signalling in the human breast and so play a role in the rising incidence of breast cancer. However, although parabens have been shown to regulate a few single genes (reporter genes, pS2, progesterone receptor) in a manner similar to that of 17 beta-oestradiol, the question remains as to the full extent of the similarity in the overall gene profile induced in response to parabens compared with 17 beta-oestradiol. The GE-Amersham CodeLink 20 K human expression microarray system was used to profile the expression of 19881 genes in MCF7 human breast cancer cells following a 7-day exposure to 5 x 10(-4) m methylparaben, 10(-5) m n-butylparaben and 10(-8) m 17 beta-oestradiol. At these concentrations, the parabens gave growth responses in MCF7 cells of similar magnitude to 17 beta-oestradiol. The study identified genes which are upregulated or downregulated to a similar extent by methylparaben, n-butylparaben and 17 beta-oestradiol. However, the majority of genes were not regulated in the same way by all three treatments. Some genes responded differently to parabens from 17 beta-oestradiol, and furthermore, differences in expression of some genes could be detected even between the two individual parabens. Therefore, although parabens possess oestrogenic properties, their mimicry in terms of global gene expression patterns is not perfect and differences in gene expression profiles could result in consequences to the cells that are not identical to those following exposure to 17 beta-oestradiol. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Microwave activation of the electro-oxidation of glucose in alkaline media

The oxidation of glucose is a complex process usually requiring catalytically active electrode surfaces or enzyme-modified electrodes. In this study the effect of high intensity microwave radiation on the oxidation of glucose in alkaline solution at Au, Cu, and Ni electrodes is reported. Calibration experiments with the Fe(CN)63–/4– redox system in aqueous 0.1 M NaOH indicate that strong thermal effects occur at both 50 and 500 µm diameter electrodes with temperatures reaching 380 K. Extreme mass transport effects with mass transport coefficients of kmt > 0.01 m s–1(or kmt > 1.0 cm s–1) are observed at 50 µm diameter electrodes in the presence of microwaves. The electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose at 500 µm diameter Au, Cu, or Ni electrodes immersed in 0.1 M NaOH and in the presence of microwave radiation is shown to be dominated by kinetic control. The magnitude of glucose oxidation currents at Cu electrodes is shown to depend on the thickness of a pre-formed oxide layer. At 50 µm diameter Au, Cu, or Ni electrodes microwave enhanced current densities are generally higher, but only at Au electrodes is a significantly increased rate for the electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose to gluconolactone observed. This rate enhancement appears to be independent of temperature but microwave intensity dependent, and therefore non-thermal in nature. Voltammetric currents observed at Ni electrodes in the presence of microwaves show the best correlation with glucose concentration and are therefore analytically most useful.

A comparative study of the effects of metal contamination on collembola in the field and in the laboratory

We examined the species diversity and abundance of Collembola at 32 sampling points along a gradient of metal contamination in a rough grassland site ( Wolverhampton, England), formerly used for the disposal of metal-rich smelting waste. Differences in the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn between the least and most contaminated part of the 35 metre transect were more than one order of magnitude. A gradient of Zn concentrations from 597 to 9080 mug g(-1) dry soil was found. A comparison between field concentrations of the four metals and previous studies on their relative toxicities to Collembola, suggested that Zn is likely to be responsible for any ecotoxicological effects on springtails at this site. Euedaphic ( soil dwelling) Collembola were extracted by placing soil cores into Tullgren funnels and epedaphic ( surface dwelling) species were sampled using pitfall traps. There was no obvious relationship between the total abundance, or a range of commonly used diversity indices, and Zn levels in soils. However, individual species showed considerable differences in abundance. Metal "tolerant'' (e.g., Ceratophysella denticulata) and metal "sensitive'' (e.g., Cryptopygus thermophilus) species could be identified. Epedaphic species appeared to be influenced less by metal contamination than euedaphic species. This difference is probably due to the higher mobility and lower contact with the soil pore water of epedaphic springtails in comparison to euedaphic Collembola. In an experiment exposing the standard test springtail, Folsomia candida, to soils from all 32 sampling points, adult survival and reproduction showed small but significant negative relationships with total Zn concentrations. Nevertheless, juveniles were still produced from eggs laid by females in the most contaminated soils with 9080 mug g(-1) Zn. Folsomia candida is much more sensitive to equivalent concentrations of Zn in the standard OECD soil. Thus, care should be taken in extrapolating the results of laboratory toxicity tests on metals in OECD soil to field soils, in which, the biological availability of contaminants is likely to be lower. Our studies have shown the importance of ecotoxicological effects at the species level. Although there may be no differences in overall abundance, sensitive species that are numerous in contaminated sites, and which may play important roles in decomposition("keystone species'') can be greatly reduced in numbers by pollution.

A comparison of the reactivity of germylene and dimethylgermylene with some methylgermanes. Direct kinetic and quantum chemical studies

Time-resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, and dimethygermylene, GeMe2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of appropriate precursor molecules have been carried out to try to obtain rate coefficients for their bimolecular reactions with dimethylgermane, Me2GeH2, in the gas-phase. GeH2 + Me2GeH2 was studied over the pressure range 1-100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 296-553 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found (at 386, 447 and 553 K). RRKM modelling was carried out to fit these pressure dependences. The high pressure rate coefficients gave the Arrhenius parameters: log(A/cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1)) = -10.99 +/- 0.07 and E-a = -(7.35 +/- 0.48) kJ mol(-1). No reaction could be found between GeMe2 + Me2GeH2 at any temperature up to 549 K, and upper limits of ca. 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1) were set for the rate coefficients. A rate coefficient of (1.33 +/- 0.04) x 10(-11)cm(3) molecule(-1)s(-1) was also obtained for GeH2 + MeGeH3 at 296 K. No reaction was found between GeMe2 and MeGeH3. Rate coefficient comparisons showed, inter alia, that in the substrate germane Me-for-H substitution increased the magnitudes of rate coefficients significantly, while in the germylene Me-for-H substitution decreased the magnitudes of rate coefficients by at least four orders of magnitude. Quantum chemical calculations (G2(MP2,SVP)// B3LYP level) supported these findings and showed that the lack of reactivity of GeMe2 is caused by a positive energy barrier for rearrangement of the initially formed complexes. Full details of the structures of intermediate complexes and the discussion of their stabilities are given in the paper.

Development of a quantitative tool for the comparison of the prebiotic effect of dietary oligosaccharides

Aims: To develop a quantitative equation [prebiotic index ( PI)] to aid the analysis of prebiotic fermentation of commercially available and novel prebiotic carbohydrates in vitro, using previously published fermentation data. Methods: The PI equation is based on the changes in key bacterial groups during fermentation. The bacterial groups incorporated into this PI equation were bifidobacteria, lactobacilli, clostridia and bacteroides. The changes in these bacterial groups from previous studies were entered into the PI equation in order to determine a quantitative PI score. PI scores were than compared with the qualitative conclusions made in these publications. In general the PI scores agreed with the qualitative conclusions drawn and provided a quantitative measure. Conclusions: The PI allows the magnitude of prebiotic effects to be quantified rather than evaluations being solely qualitative. Significance and Impact of the Study: The PI equation may be of great use in quantifying prebiotic effects in vitro. It is expected that this will facilitate more rational food product development and the development of more potent prebiotics with activity at lower doses.

The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part II: The global effects

Reliably representing both horizontal cloud inhomogeneity and vertical cloud overlap is fundamentally important for the radiation budget of a general circulation model. Here, we build on the work of Part One of this two-part paper by applying a pair of parameterisations that account for horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap to global re-analysis data. These are applied both together and separately in an attempt to quantify the effects of poor representation of the two components on radiation budget. Horizontal inhomogeneity is accounted for using the “Tripleclouds” scheme, which uses two regions of cloud in each layer of a gridbox as opposed to one; vertical overlap is accounted for using “exponential-random” overlap, which aligns vertically continuous cloud according to a decorrelation height. These are applied to a sample of scenes from a year of ERA-40 data. The largest radiative effect of horizontal inhomogeneity is found to be in areas of marine stratocumulus; the effect of vertical overlap is found to be fairly uniform, but with larger individual short-wave and long-wave effects in areas of deep, tropical convection. The combined effect of the two parameterisations is found to reduce the magnitude of the net top-of-atmosphere cloud radiative forcing (CRF) by 2.25 W m−2, with shifts of up to 10 W m−2 in areas of marine stratocumulus. The effects of the uncertainty in our parameterisations on radiation budget is also investigated. It is found that the uncertainty in the impact of horizontal inhomogeneity is of order ±60%, while the uncertainty in the impact of vertical overlap is much smaller. This suggests an insensitivity of the radiation budget to the exact nature of the global decorrelation height distribution derived in Part One.

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15-45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N is not well-correlated with the AMOC at 26N.

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

On the regulation of spatial externalities: coexistence between GM and conventional crops in the EU and the 'newcomer principle'

Pollen-mediated gene flow is one of the main concerns associated with the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, ‘contamination’ by GM pollen would generate a revenue loss for growers of non-GM varieties. This paper analyses the problem of pollen-mediated gene flow as a particular type of production externality. The model, although simple, provides useful insights into coexistence policies. Following on from this and taking GM herbicide-tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a model crop, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate data and then estimate the effect of several important policy variables (including width of buffer zones and spatial aggregation) on the magnitude of the externality associated with pollen-mediated gene flow.

Canonical description of the perspective projections

A unique parameterization of the perspective projections in all whole-numbered dimensions is reported. The algorithm for generating a perspective transformation from parameters and for recovering parameters from a transformation is a modification of the Givens orthogonalization algorithm. The algorithm for recovering a perspective transformation from a perspective projection is a modification of Roberts' classical algorithm. Both algorithms have been implemented in Pop-11 with call-out to the NAG Fortran libraries. Preliminary monte-carlo tests show that the transformation algorithm is highly accurate, but that the projection algorithm cannot recover magnitude and shear parameters accurately. However, there is reason to believe that the projection algorithm might improve significantly with the use of many corresponding points, or with multiple perspective views of an object. Previous parameterizations of the perspective transformations in the computer graphics and computer vision literature are discussed.

Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

The processes that govern the predictability of decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are investigated in a long control simulation of the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere–ocean model. We elucidate the roles of local stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, and other potential ocean processes, and use our results to build a predictive regression model. The primary influence on MOC variability is found to come from air–sea heat fluxes over the Eastern Labrador Sea. The maximum correlation between such anomalies and the variations in the MOC occurs at a lead time of 2 years, but we demonstrate that the MOC integrates the heat flux variations over a period of 10 years. The corresponding univariate regression model accounts for 74.5% of the interannual variability in the MOC (after the Ekman component has been removed). Dense anomalies to the south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge are also shown to precede the overturning variations by 4–6 years, and provide a second predictor. With the inclusion of this second predictor the resulting regression model explains 82.8% of the total variance of the MOC. This final bivariate model is also tested during large rapid decadal overturning events. The sign of the rapid change is always well represented by the bivariate model, but the magnitude is usually underestimated, suggesting that other processes are also important for these large rapid decadal changes in the MOC.