Comparison of MODIS broadband albedo over an agricultural site with ground measurements and values derived from Earth observation data at a range of spatial scales

Land surface albedo is dependent on atmospheric state and hence is difficult to validate. Over the UK persistent cloud cover and land cover heterogeneity at moderate (km-scale) spatial resolution can also complicate comparison of field-measured albedo with that derived from instruments such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). A practical method of comparing moderate resolution satellite-derived albedo with ground-based measurements over an agricultural site in the UK is presented. Point measurements of albedo made on the ground are scaled up to the MODIS resolution (1 km) through reflectance data obtained at a range of spatial scales. The point measurements of albedo agreed in magnitude with MODIS values over the test site to within a few per cent, despite problems such as persistent cloud cover and the difficulties of comparing measurements made during different years. Albedo values derived from airborne and field-measured data were generally lower than the corresponding satellite-derived values. This is thought to be due to assumptions made regarding the ratio of direct to diffuse illumination used when calculating albedo from reflectance. Measurements of albedo calculated for specific times fitted closely to the trajectories of temporal albedo derived from both Systeme pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) Vegetation (VGT) and MODIS instruments.

In vitro evaluation of the antimicrobial activity of a range of probiotics against pathogens: Evidence for the effects of organic acids

The aim of this study was to investigate the antimicrobial properties of fifteen selected strains belonging to the Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium, Lactococcus, Streptococcus and Bacillus genera against Gram-positive and Gram-negative pathogenic bacteria. In vitro antibacterial activity was initially investigated by an agar spot method. Results from the agar spot test showed that most of the selected strains were able to produce active compounds on solid media with antagonistic properties against Salmonella Typhimurium, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile. These results were also confirmed when cell-free culture supernatants (CFCS) from the putative probiotics were used in an agar well diffusion assay. Neutralization of the culture supernatants with alkali reduced the antagonistic effects. These experiments are able to confirm the capacity of potential probiotics to inhibit selected pathogens. One of the main inhibitory mechanisms may result from the production of organic acids from glucose fermentation and consequent lowering of culture pH. This observation was confirmed when the profile of organic acids was analysed demonstrating that lactic and acetic acid were the principal end products of probiotic metabolism. Furthermore, the assessment of the haemolytic activity and the susceptibility of the strains to the most commonly used antimicrobials, considered as basic safety aspects, were also studied. The observed antimicrobial activity was mainly genus-specific, additionally significant differences could be observed among species.

The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: a stimulus for our science

Predictability is considered in the context of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem, and the notion is developed that there can be predictive power on all time-scales. On all scales there are phenomena that occur as well as longer time-scales and external conditions that should combine to give some predictability. To what extent this theoretical predictability may actually be realised and, further, to what extent it may be useful is not clear. However the potential should provide a stimulus to, and high profile for, our science and its application for many years.

Fatty acid composition of cooked chicken meat and chicken meat products as influenced by price range at retail

The primary objective was to determine fatty acid composition of skinless chicken breast and leg meat portions and chicken burgers and nuggets from the economy price range, standard price range (both conventional intensive rearing) and the organic range from four leading supermarkets. Few significant differences in the SFA, MUFA and PUFA composition of breast and leg meat portions were found among price ranges, and supermarket had no effect. No significant differences in fatty acid concentrations of economy and standard chicken burgers were found, whereas economy chicken nuggets had higher C16:1, C18:1 cis, C18:1 trans and C18:3 n-3 concentrations than had standard ones. Overall, processed chicken products had much higher fat contents and SFA than had whole meat. Long chain n-3 fatty acids had considerably lower concentrations in processed products than in whole meat. Overall there was no evidence that organic chicken breast or leg meat had a more favourable fatty acid composition than had meat from conventionally reared birds.

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.