Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Metal bioaccumulation and cellular fractionation in an epigeic earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus): the interactive influences of population exposure histories, site-specific geochemistry and mitochondrial genotype

Subcellular fractionation techniques were used to describe temporal changes (at intervals from T0 to T70 days) in the Pb, Zn and P partitioning profiles of Lumbricus rubellus populations from one calcareous (MDH) and one acidic (MCS) geographically isolated Pb/Zn-mine sites and one reference site (CPF). MDH and MCS individuals were laboratory maintained on their native field soils; CPF worms were exposed to both MDH and MCS soils. Site-specific differences in metal partitioning were found: notably, the putatively metal-adapted populations, MDH and MCS, preferentially partitioned higher proportions of their accumulated tissue metal burdens into insoluble CaPO4-rich organelles compared with naive counterparts, CPF. Thus, it is plausible that efficient metal immobilization is a phenotypic trait characterising metal tolerant ecotypes. Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II (COII) genotyping revealed that the populations indigenous to mine and reference soils belong to distinct genetic lineages, differentiated by 13%, with 7 haplotypes within the reference site lineage but fewer (3 and 4, respectively) in the lineage common to the two mine sites. Collectively, these observations raise the possibility that site-related genotype differences could influence the toxico-availability of metals and, thus, represent a potential confounding variable in field-based eco-toxicological assessments.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Use of a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm in protein folding simulations

We have developed a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm (GA) for simulation of protein folding. The program (written in C) builds a set of Cartesian points to represent an unfolded polypeptide's backbone. The dihedral angles determining the chain's configuration are stored in an array of chromosome structures that is copied and then mutated. The fitness of the mutated chain's configuration is determined by its radius of gyration. A four-helix bundle was used to optimise simulation conditions, and the program was compared with other, larger, genetic algorithms on a variety of structures. The program ran 50% faster than other GA programs. Overall, tests on 100 non-redundant structures gave comparable results to other genetic algorithms, with the Hill-climbing program running from between 20 and 50% faster. Examples including crambin, cytochrome c, cytochrome B and hemerythrin gave good secondary structure fits with overall alpha carbon atom rms deviations of between 5 and 5.6 Angstrom with an optimised hydrophobic term in the fitness function. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Function of the hydration layer around an antifreeze protein revealed by atomistic molecular dynamics simulations

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the mechanism by which the antifreeze protein from the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, binds to ice. Comparison of structural and dynamic properties of the water around the three faces of the triangular prism-shaped protein in aqueous solution reveals that at low temperature the water structure is ordered and the dynamics slowed down around the ice-binding face of the protein, with a disordering effect observed around the other two faces. These results suggest a dual role for the solvation water around the protein. The preconfigured solvation shell around the ice-binding face is involved in the initial recognition and binding of the antifreeze protein to ice by lowering the barrier for binding and consolidation of the protein:ice interaction surface. Thus, the antifreeze protein can bind to the molecularly rough ice surface by becoming actively involved in the formation of its own binding site. Also, the disruption of water structure around the rest of the protein helps prevent the adsorbed protein becoming covered by further ice growth.

Building cluster and shading in urban canyon for hot dry climate Part 2: Shading simulations

Under low latitude conditions, minimisation of solar irradiance within the urban environment may often be an important criterion in urban design. This can be achieved when the obstruction angle is large (high H/W ratio, H = height, W = width). Solar access to streets can always be decreased by increasing H/W to larger values. It is shown in this paper that the street canyon orientation (and not only the H/W ratio) has a considerable effect on solar shading and urban microclimate. The paper demonstrates through a series of shading simulation and temperature measurements that a number of useful relationships can be developed between the geometry and the microclimate of urban street canyons. These relationships are potentially helpful to assist in the formulation of urban design guidelines governing street dimensions and orientations for use by urban designers.

The impact of an intelligent classroom on pupils' interactive behaviour

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to determine whether new intelligent classrooms will affect the behaviour of children in their new learning environments. Design/methodology/approach – A multi-method study approach was used to carry out the research. Behavioural mapping was used to observe and monitor the classroom environment and analyse usage. Two new classrooms designed by INTEGER (Intelligent and Green) in two different UK schools provided the case studies to determine whether intelligent buildings (learning environments) can enhance learning experiences. Findings – Several factors were observed in the learning environments: mobility, flexibility, use of technology, interactions. Relationships among them were found indicating that the new environments have positive impact on pupils' behaviour. Practical implications – A very useful feedback for the Classrooms of the Future initiative will be provided, which can be used as basis for the School of the Future initiative. Originality/value – The behavioural analysis method described in this study will enable an evaluation of the “Schools of the Future” concept, under children's perspective. Using a real life laboratory gives contribution to the education field by rethinking the classroom environment and the way of teaching.

Educational value of different types of exhibits in an interactive science and technology center

This study analyzes the short-term consequences of visitors' use of different types of exhibits (i.e., "exemplars of phenomena" and "analogy based") together with the factors affecting visitors' understanding of and their evaluation of the use of such exhibits. One hundred and twenty five visitors (either alone or in groups) were observed during their interaction and interviewed immediately afterwards. Findings suggest that the type of exhibit constrains the nature of the understanding achieved. The use of analogical reasoning may lead to an intended causal explanation of an exhibit that is an exemplar of a phenomenon, but visitors often express misconceptions as a consequence of using this type of exhibit. Analogy-based exhibits are often not used as intended by the designer. This may be because visitors do not access the source domain intended; are unaware of the use of analogy per se (in particular, when the exhibit is of the subtype "only showing similarities between relationships"); only acquire fragmentary knowledge about the target; or fail to use analogical reasoning of which they were capable. Furthermore, exhibits related to everyday world situations are recognized to have an immediate educative value for visitors. Suggestions for enhancing the educative value of exhibits are proposed.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - II: solution of the mathematical model, model testing and simulations

The mathematical models that describe the immersion-frying period and the post-frying cooling period of an infinite slab or an infinite cylinder were solved and tested. Results were successfully compared with those found in the literature or obtained experimentally, and were discussed in terms of the hypotheses and simplifications made. The models were used as the basis of a sensitivity analysis. Simulations showed that a decrease in slab thickness and core heat capacity resulted in faster crust development. On the other hand, an increase in oil temperature and boiling heat transfer coefficient between the oil and the surface of the food accelerated crust formation. The model for oil absorption during cooling was analysed using the tested post-frying cooling equation to determine the moment in which a positive pressure driving force, allowing oil suction within the pore, originated. It was found that as crust layer thickness, pore radius and ambient temperature decreased so did the time needed to start the absorption. On the other hand, as the effective convective heat transfer coefficient between the air and the surface of the slab increased the required cooling time decreased. In addition, it was found that the time needed to allow oil absorption during cooling was extremely sensitive to pore radius, indicating the importance of an accurate pore size determination in future studies.

A technique for evaluation of interactive evolutionary systems

Very large scale scheduling and planning tasks cannot be effectively addressed by fully automated schedule optimisation systems, since many key factors which govern 'fitness' in such cases are unformalisable. This raises the question of an interactive (or collaborative) approach, where fitness is assigned by the expert user. Though well-researched in the domains of interactively evolved art and music, this method is as yet rarely used in logistics. This paper concerns a difficulty shared by all interactive evolutionary systems (IESs), but especially those used for logistics or design problems. The difficulty is that objective evaluation of IESs is severely hampered by the need for expert humans in the loop. This makes it effectively impossible to, for example, determine with statistical confidence any ranking among a decent number of configurations for the parameters and strategy choices. We make headway into this difficulty with an Automated Tester (AT) for such systems. The AT replaces the human in experiments, and has parameters controlling its decision-making accuracy (modelling human error) and a built-in notion of a target solution which may typically be at odds with the solution which is optimal in terms of formalisable fitness. Using the AT, plausible evaluations of alternative designs for the IES can be done, allowing for (and examining the effects of) different levels of user error. We describe such an AT for evaluating an IES for very large scale planning.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.