Spatial disaggregation and intensity correction of TRMM-based rainfall time series for hydrological applications in dryland catchments

A novel approach is presented for combining spatial and temporal detail from newly available TRMM-based data sets to derive hourly rainfall intensities at 1-km spatial resolution for hydrological modelling applications. Time series of rainfall intensities derived from 3-hourly 0.25° TRMM 3B42 data are merged with a 1-km gridded rainfall climatology based on TRMM 2B31 data to account for the sub-grid spatial distribution of rainfall intensities within coarse-scale 0.25° grid cells. The method is implemented for two dryland catchments in Tunisia and Senegal, and validated against gauge data. The outcomes of the validation show that the spatially disaggregated and intensity corrected TRMM time series more closely approximate ground-based measurements than non-corrected data. The method introduced here enables the generation of rainfall intensity time series with realistic temporal and spatial detail for dynamic modelling of runoff and infiltration processes that are especially important to water resource management in arid regions.

Normality mining: privacy implications of behavioral profiles drawn from GPS enabled mobile phones

There is growing interest in the ways in which the location of a person can be utilized by new applications and services. Recent advances in mobile technologies have meant that the technical capability to record and transmit location data for processing is appearing in off-the-shelf handsets. This opens possibilities to profile people based on the places they visit, people they associate with, or other aspects of their complex routines determined through persistent tracking. It is possible that services offering customized information based on the results of such behavioral profiling could become commonplace. However, it may not be immediately apparent to the user that a wealth of information about them, potentially unrelated to the service, can be revealed. Further issues occur if the user agreed, while subscribing to the service, for data to be passed to third parties where it may be used to their detriment. Here, we report in detail on a short case study tracking four people, in three European member states, persistently for six weeks using mobile handsets. The GPS locations of these people have been mined to reveal places of interest and to create simple profiles. The information drawn from the profiling activity ranges from intuitive through special cases to insightful. In this paper, these results and further extensions to the technology are considered in light of European legislation to assess the privacy implications of this emerging technology.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

Social consensus, moral intensity and willingness to pay to address a farm animal welfare issue

An experimental contingent valuation (CV) survey of university students was undertaken to explore the impact of social consensus information on people's stated willingness to pay (wtp) to address a farm animal welfare issue. The survey found that additional information presented to respondents on social consensus concerning the moral dimensions of the issue led to a greater perception of social consensus by respondents. This greater perception of social consensus appeared to result in a higher level of moral intensity associated with the issue and a higher stated wtp by respondents for policy to address the issue. However, as for many CV studies of public goods, a question remains as to whether the estimated wtp is a true measure of people's preferences and relative values or merely a measure of attitudes on an arbitrary monetary scale.

Moral intensity and willingness to pay concerning farm animal welfare issues and the implications for agricultural policy

An experimental survey was undertaken to explore the links between the characteristics of a moral issue, the degree of moral intensity/moral imperative associated with the issue (Jones, 1991), and people's stated willingness to pay (wtp) for policy to address the issue. Two farm animal welfare issues were chosen for comparison and the contingent valuation method was used to elicit people's wtp. The findings of the survey suggest that increases in moral characteristics do appear to result in an increase in moral intensity and the degree of moral imperative associated with an issue. Moreover, there was a positive link between moral intensity/moral imperative associated with an issue and people's stated wtp for policy to address the issue. The paper discusses the relevance of the findings of the survey in the context of the debate concerning the relationship between moral and economic values and the use of the contingent valuation method to estimate people's wtp of policy options with moral dimensions.

Receptor binding profiles of avian influenza virus hemagglutinin subtypes on human cells as a predictor of pandemic potential

The host adaptation of influenza virus is partly dependent on the sialic acid (SA) isoform bound by the viral hemagglutinin (HA). Avian influenza viruses preferentially bind the α-2,3 SA and human influenza viruses the α-2,6 isoform. Each isoform is predominantly associated with different surface epithelial cell types of the human upper airway. Using recombinant HAs and human tracheal airway epithelial cells in vitro and ex vivo, we show that many avian HA subtypes do not adhere to this canonical view of SA specificity. The propensity of avian viruses to adapt to human receptors may thus be more widespread than previously supposed.

Effects of urban ventilation patterns on the carbon monoxide concentration in a high-rise mega city

Carbon monoxide (CO) concentration data from 1999–2006, monitored at 5 different pollution stations in a high-rise mega city (Hong Kong), were collected and investigated. The spatio-temporal characteristics of urban CO concentration profiles were obtained. A new approach was put forward to examine the relationship between urban CO concentration and different wind flow patterns. Rather than relying on the meteorological data from a single weather station, usually adopted in previous studies, four weather stations on the boundary of Hong Kong territory were used in the present study so as to identify 16 different wind flow patterns, among which a typical urban heat island circulation (UHIC) can be distinguished. Higher concentrations were observed to be associated with the flow pattern of an inflow from Lau Fau Shan (LFS) station which is located in the northwest of Hong Kong. This suggests that the ability of dilution for north-to-west wind is relatively weak due to the pollutants carried from outside Hong Kong. The effectiveness of wind speed on the alleviation of urban concentration is dependent on the initial concentration of the approaching wind. The increase of wind speed of north-to-west wind from 0 m/s to 6 m/s has little effect on the reduction of urban CO concentration, especially on the non-roadside stations. By contrast, for the southerly marine wind, pollution concentration decreases sharply with an increase in the wind speed. It was also found that urban heat island circulation (UHIC) is conducive of the accumulation of pollutants, especially at night. There exists a positive correlation between CO concentration and UHI intensity. This correlation is much stronger at night compared to during the day. Keywords: urban pollution monitoring, urban ventilation pattern, urban heat island circulation, mega city

An analytical model of mountain wave drag for wind profiles with shear and curvature

An analytical model is developed to predict the surface drag exerted by internal gravity waves on an isolated axisymmetric mountain over which there is a stratified flow with a velocity profile that varies relatively slowly with height. The model is linear with respect to the perturbations induced by the mountain, and solves the Taylor–Goldstein equation with variable coefficients using a Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) approximation, formally valid for high Richardson numbers, Ri. The WKB solution is extended to a higher order than in previous studies, enabling a rigorous treatment of the effects of shear and curvature of the wind profile on the surface drag. In the hydrostatic approximation, closed formulas for the drag are derived for generic wind profiles, where the relative magnitude of the corrections to the leading-order drag (valid for a constant wind profile) does not depend on the detailed shape of the orography. The drag is found to vary proportionally to Ri21, decreasing as Ri decreases for a wind that varies linearly with height, and increasing as Ri decreases for a wind that rotates with height maintaining its magnitude. In these two cases the surface drag is predicted to be aligned with the surface wind. When one of the wind components varies linearly with height and the other is constant, the surface drag is misaligned with the surface wind, especially for relatively small Ri. All these results are shown to be in fairly good agreement with numerical simulations of mesoscale nonhydrostatic models, for high and even moderate values of Ri.

The early transcriptomic response to interleukin 1β and interleukin 33 in rat neonatal cardiomyocytes

In the heart, inflammatory cytokines including interleukin (IL) 1β are implicated in regulating adaptive and maladaptive changes, whereas IL33 negatively regulates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and promotes cardioprotection. These agonists signal through a common co-receptor but, in cardiomyocytes, IL1β more potently activates mitogen-activated protein kinases and NFκB, pathways that regulate gene expression. We compared the effects of external application of IL1β and IL33 on the cardiomyocyte transcriptome. Neonatal rat cardiomyocytes were exposed to IL1β or IL33 (0.5, 1 or 2h). Transcriptomic profiles were determined using Affymetrix rat genome 230 2.0 microarrays and data were validated by quantitative PCR. IL1β induced significant changes in more RNAs than IL33 and, generally, to a greater degree. It also had a significantly greater effect in downregulating mRNAs and in regulating mRNAs associated with selected pathways. IL33 had a greater effect on a small, select group of specific transcripts. Thus, differences in intensity of intracellular signals can deliver qualitatively different responses. Quantitatively different responses in production of receptor agonists and transcription factors may contribute to qualitative differences at later times resulting in different phenotypic cellular responses.

Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle.

The role of rainfall intensity and soil in determining rates of flow through cryoturbated chalk

The effects of different water application rates (3, 10, 15 and 30 mm/h) and of topsoil removal on the rate of downward water movement through the cryoturbated chalk zone in southern England were investigated in situ. During and after each application of water, changes in water content and matric potential of the profile were monitored and percolate was collected in troughs. The measured water breakthrough time showed that water moved to 1.2 m depth quickly (in 8.2 h) even with application rate as low as 3 mm/h and that the time was only 3 h when water was applied at a rate of 15 mm/ h. These breakthrough times were about 150 and 422 fold shorter, respectively, than those expected if the water had been conducted by the matrix alone. Percolate was collected in troughs within 3.5 h at 1.2 m depth when water was applied at 30 mm/h and the quantity collected indicated that a significant amount of the surface applied water moved downward through inter-aggregate pores. The small increase in volumetric water content (about 3%) in excess of matrix water content resulted in a large increase in pore water velocities, from 0.20 to 5.3 m/d. The presence of soil layer had effect on the time taken for water to travel through the cryoturbated chalk layer and in the soil layer, water took about 1-2 h to pass thorough, depending on the intensity.

Land use intensity and trees on farms in Malawi

Rapidly increasing population densities in Malawi have put a huge strain on the existing agricultural land and the surrounding woodland. Smallholder agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Malawi’s rural population and many farmers have been forced to cultivate marginal lands with less fertile soils, making conditions much more difficult to grow crops. Natural woodland is under increasing pressure from the opening of new lands for cultivation and the increased demand for firewood, timber and other woody resources, with rural households historically obtaining most of their complementary inputs and saleable commodities from nearby areas of forest (Arnold, 1997a). Despite this increasing pressure, woodlands are not being cleared indiscriminately; selected indigenous species are left standing in fields and around households. These are joined by exotic species that are planted and maintained. These trees provide products and services that are vital, yielding food, firewood, building materials and medicine, replenishing soil fertility and protecting against soil erosion. Following a Boserupian approach, this study attempts to establish the reality of a trajectory of enhanced on-farm tree planting and management as population pressure mounts and as part of a more general process of agricultural intensification. The study examines the combination of factors (social, economic, political and environmental) that either stimulate or discourage on-farm tree planting on smallholdings in Malawi, highlighting how woodland resource use changes over a gradient of land use intensity. This study gives a detailed insight into the way that tree planting and management in the smallholder farming system in Malawi works and identifies a trend of increased tree planting/management alongside an increase in agricultural intensification. However, there is no single ‘path’ of intensification; the link between agricultural change and tree planting is complex and there are many trajectories of intensification that a farmer may follow, dependent on his/her social or economic circumstances. The study recommends that agroforestry interventions give rigorous consideration to the needs of the local community, and the suitability of trees to address those needs, before embarking on programmes that advocate tree planting and management as a panacea.

Non-concordance between genetic profiles of olive oil and fruit: a cautionary note to the use of DNA markers for provenance testing.

To investigate the contribution of paternal alleles to the DNA content of olive oil, genetic analyses of olive DNA samples from fruits, leaves, and oil derived from the same tree (cv. Leccino) were carried out. DNA extracted from maternal tissues--leaves and flesh--from different fruits showed identical genetic profiles using a set of DNA markers. Additional simple sequence repeat (SSR) alleles, not found in the maternal samples, were amplified in the embryos (stone), and they were also detected in DNA extracted from the paste obtained by crushing whole fruits and from the oil pressed from this material. These results demonstrate that the DNA profile obtained from olive oil is likely to represent a composite profile of the maternal alleles juxtaposed with alleles contributed by various pollen donors. Therefore, care needs to be taken in the interpretation of DNA profiles obtained from DNA extracted from oil for resolving provenance and authenticity issues.