Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storms

Operational active fire mapping and burnt area identification applicable to Mexican Nature Protection Areas using MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR direct readout data

Since 1999, the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO) in Mexico has been developing and managing the “Operational program for the detection of hot-spots using remote sensing techniques”. This program uses images from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR), which are operationally received through the Direct Readout station (DR) at CONABIO. This allows the near-real time monitoring of fire events in Mexico and Central America. In addition to the detection of active fires, the location of hot spots are classified with respect to vegetation types, accessibility, and risk to Nature Protection Areas (NPA). Besides the fast detection of fires, further analysis is necessary due to the considerable effects of forest fires on biodiversity and human life. This fire impact assessment is crucial to support the needs of resource managers and policy makers for adequate fire recovery and restoration actions. CONABIO attempts to meet these requirements, providing post-fire assessment products as part of the management system in particular for satellite-based burnt area mapping. This paper provides an overview of the main components of the operational system and will present an outlook to future activities and system improvements, especially the development of a burnt area product. A special focus will also be placed on the fire occurrence within NPAs of Mexico

Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model

Assessing pragmatic interoperability for process alignment in collaborative working environment

This paper is an extension of our previous study on pragmatic interoperability assessment for process alignment. In this study, we conduct four case studies in industrial companies and hospitals in order to gather their viewpoints regarding the concerns when condensing process alignment in a collaborative working environment. Used techniques include interview, observation, and documentation. The collected results firstly are summarised into three layers based on our previous developed pragmatic assessment model, and then are transformed into the elements which constitutes the purposed method, and finally based on the summarised results we purpose a method for assessing pragmatic interoperability for process alignment in collaborative working environment. The method contains two parts: one gives all the elements of pragmatic interoperability that should be concerned when considering process alignment in collaborative working environment, and the other one is a supplementary method for dealing with technical concerns.

Exploring invention capability

Research on invention has focused on business invention and little work has been conducted on the process and capability required for the individual inventor or the capabilities required for an advice to be considered an invention. This paper synthesises the results of an empirical survey of ten inventor case studies with current research on invention and recent capability affordance research to develop an integrated capability process model of human capabilities for invention and specific capabilities of an invented device. We identify eight necessary human effectivities required for individual invention capability and six functional key activities using these effectivities, to deliver the functional capability of invention. We also identified key differences between invention and general problem solving processes. Results suggest that inventive step capability relies on a unique application of principles that relate to a new combination of affordance chain with a new mechanism and or space time (affordance) path representing the novel way the device works, in conjunction with defined critical affordance operating factors that are the subject of the patent claims.

Energy

The impact of energy policy measures has been assessed with various appraisal and evaluation tools since the 1960s. Decision analysis, environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment are all notable examples of progenitors of Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) in the assessment of energy policies, programmes and projects. This chapter provides overview of policy tools which have been historically applied to assess the impacts of energy policies, programmes and projects. It focuses on the types of data and models that typically inform RIAs for energy policies; the organisations involved; and issues of data exchange between energy companies and policy-makers. Examples are derived from the European Commission, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and France. It is concluded that the technical and economic analysis underpinning RIAs on energy policy and regulation varies significantly depending on the type of organisation carrying them out.