The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Spatial concentration in institutional industrial real estate investment in the England and Wales

In two recent papers Byrne and Lee (2006, 2007) examined the geographical concentration of institutional office and retail investment in England and Wales at two points in time; 1998 and 2003. The findings indicate that commercial office portfolios are concentrated in a very few urban areas, whereas retail holdings correlate more closely with the urban hierarchy of England and Wales and consequently are essentially ubiquitous. Research into the industrial sector is very much less developed, and this paper therefore makes a significant contribution to understanding the structure of industrial property investment in the UK. It shows that industrial investment concentration is between that of retail and office and is focussed on LAs with high levels of manual workers in areas with smaller industrial units. It also shows that during the period studied the structure of the sector changed, with greater emphasis on the distributional element, for which location is a principal consideration.

Volatility persistence and time-varying betas in the UK real estate market

This paper investigates the degree of return volatility persistence and the time-varying behaviour of systematic risk (beta) for 31 market segments in the UK real estate market. The findings suggest that different property types exhibit differences in volatility persistence and time variability. There is also evidence that the volatility persistence of each market segment and its systematic risk are significantly positively related. Thus, the systematic risks of different property types tend to move in different directions during periods of increased market volatility. Finally, the market segments with systematic risks less than one tend to show negative time variability, while market segments with systematic risk greater than one generally show positive time variability, indicating a positive relationship between the volatility of the market and the systematic risk of individual market segments. Consequently safer and riskier market segments are affected differently by increases in market volatility.

Persistence of UK Real Estate returns: a Markov chain analysis

The persistence of investment performance is a topic of perennial interest to investors. Efficient Markets theory tells us that past performance can not be used to predict future performance yet investors appear to be influenced by the historical performance in making their investment allocation decisions. The problem has been of particular interest to investors in real estate; not least because reported returns from investment in real estate are serially correlated thus implying some persistence in investment performance. This paper applies the established approach of Markov Chain analysis to investigate the relationship between past and present performance of UK real estate over the period 1981 to 1996. The data are analysed by sector, region and size. Furthermore some variations in investment performance classification are reported and the results are shown to be robust.

Timing and the holding periods of institutional real estate

The literature on investors’ holding periods for equities and bonds suggest that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with short-term trading and hence shorter holding periods. High transaction costs and the perceived illiquidity of the real estate market leads to an expectation of longer holding periods. Further, work on depreciation and obsolescence might suggest that there is an optimal holding period. However, there is little empirical work in the area. In this paper, data from the Investment Property Databank are used to investigate sales rate and holding period for UK institutional real estate between 1981 and 1994. Sales rates are investigated using the Cox proportional hazards framework. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors. There are marked differences by type of property and sales rates vary over time. Contemporaneous returns are positively associated with an increase in the rate of sale. The results shed light on investor behaviour.

The effects of institutional distance and headquarters’ financial performance on the generation of environmental standards in multinational companies

This article combines institutional and resources’ arguments to show that the institutional distance between the home and the host country, and the headquarters’ financial performance have a relevant impact on the environmental standardization decision in multinational companies. Using a sample of 135 multinational companies in three different industries with headquarters and subsidiaries based in the USA, Canada, Mexico, France, and Spain, we find that a high environmental institutional distance between headquarters’ and subsidiaries’ countries deters the standardization of environmental practices. On the other hand, high-profit headquarters are willing to standardize their environmental practices, rather than taking advantage of countries with lax environmental protection to undertake more pollution-intensive activities. Finally, we show that headquarters’ financial performance also imposes a moderating effect on the relationship between environmental institutional distance between countries and environmental standardization within the multinational company.

Persistence of a wild type Escherichia coli and its multiple antibiotic-resistant (MAR) derivatives in the abattoir and on chilled pig carcasses

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of an Escherichia coli with the multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) phenotype to withstand the stresses of slaughter compared to an isogenic progenitor strain. A wild type E. coli isolate (345-2RifC) of porcine origin was used to derive 3 isogenic MAR mutants. Escherichia coli 345-2RifC and its MAR derivatives were inoculated into separate groups of pigs. Once colonisation was established, the pigs were slaughtered and persistence of the E. coli strains in the abattoir environment and on the pig carcasses was monitored and compared. No significant difference (P>0.05) was detected between the shedding of the different E. coli strains from the live pigs. Both the parent strain and its MAR derivatives persisted in the abattoir environment, however the parent strain was recovered from 6 of the 13 locations sampled while the MAR derivatives were recovered from 11 of 13 and the number of MAR E. coil recovered was 10-fold higher than the parent strain at half of the locations. The parent strain was not recovered from any of the 6 chilled carcasses whereas the MAR derivatives were recovered from 3 out of 5 (P<0.001). This study demonstrates that the expression of MAR in 345-2RifC increased its ability to survive the stresses of the slaughter and chilling processes. Therefore in E. coli, MAR can give a selective advantage, compared to non-MAR strains, for persistence on chilled carcasses thereby facilitating transit of these strains through the food chain. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Institutional capacity and implementation issues in farmers' rights

Armed with the ‘equity’ and ‘conservation’ arguments that have a deep resonance with farming communities, developing countries are crafting a range of measures designed to protect farmers’ access to innovations, reward their contributions to the conservation and enhancement of plant genetic resources and provide incentives for sustained on-farm conservation. These measures range from the commericialization of farmers’ varieties to the conferment of a set of legally enforceable rights on farming communities – the exercise of which is expected to provide economic rewards to those responsible for on-farm conservation and innovation. The rights-based approach has been the cornerstone of legislative provision for implementing farmers’ rights in most developing countries. In drawing up these measures, developing countries do not appear to have systematically examined or provided for the substantial institutional capacity required for the effective implementation of farmers’ rights provisions. The lack of institutional capacity threatens to undermine any prospect of serious implementation of these provisions. More importantly, the expectation that significant incentives for on-farm conservation and innovation will flow from these ‘rights’ may be based on a flawed understanding of the economics of intellectual property rights. While farmers’ rights may provide only limited rewards for conservation, they may still have the effect of diluting the incentives for innovative institutional breeding programs – with the private sector increasingly relying on non-IPR instruments to profit from innovation. The focus on a rights-based approach may also draw attention away from alternative stewardship-based approaches to the realization of farmers’ rights objectives.

Intergenerational persistence in health in developing countries : the penalty of gender inequality?

This paper is motivated to investigate the often neglected payoff to investments in the health of girls and women in terms of next generation outcomes. This paper investigates the intergenerational persistence of health across time and region as well as across the distribution of maternal health. It uses comparable microdata on as many as 2.24 million children born of about 0.6 million mothers in 38 developing countries in the 31 year period, 1970–2000. Mother's health is indicated by her height, BMI and anemia status. Child health is indicated by mortality risk and anthropometric failure. We find a positive relationship between maternal and child health across indicators and highlight non-linearities in these relationships. The results suggest that both contemporary and childhood health of the mother matter and that the benefits to the next generation are likely to be persistent. Averaging across the sample, persistence shows a considerable decline over time. Disaggregation shows that the decline is only significant in Latin America. Persistence has remained largely constant in Asia and has risen in Africa. The paper provides the first cross-country estimates of the intergenerational persistence in health and the first estimates of trends.

Employee turnover, HRM and institutional contexts

Literature on comparative capitalism remains divided between approaches founded on stylized case study evidence and descriptions of broad trends, and those that focus on macro data. In contrast, this study explores the relevance of Amable’s approach to understanding differences in employment relations practice, based on firm-level micro data. The article examines employee–employer interdependence (including turnover rates) in different categories of economy as classified by Amable. The findings confirm that exit – whether forced or voluntary – remains more common in market-based economies than in their continental counterparts and that institutionalized employee voice is an important variable in reducing turnover. However, there is as much diversity within the different country categories as between them, and across continental Europe. In Denmark’s case, high turnover is combined with high unionization, showing the effects of a ‘flexicurity’ strategy. While employee voice may be stronger in Scandinavia, interdependence is weaker than in continental Europe.

Non-curliation of Escherichia coli O78 : K80 isolates associated with IS1 insertion in csgB and reduced persistence in poultry infection

The elaboration of curli fimbriae by Escherichia coli is associated with the development of a lacy colony morphology when groan on colonisation factor antigen agar at 25 degrees C. Avian colisepticaemia E. coli isolates screened for curliation by this culture technique showed lacy and smooth colonial morphologies and the genetic basis of the non-curliated smooth colonial phenotype was analysed. Two smooth E, coli O78:K80 isolates possessed about 40 copies of the IS1 element within their respective genomes of which one copy insertionally inactivated the csgB gene, the nucleator gene for curli fibril formation. One of these two isolates also possessed a defective rpoS gene which is a known regulator of curli expression. In the day-old chick model, both smooth isolates were as invasive as a known virulent O78:K80 isolate as determined by extent of liver and spleen colonisation post oral inoculation but were less persistent in terms of caecal colonisation. (C) 1999 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of fimbriae and flagella in the colonization, invasion and persistence of Escherichia coli O78 : K80 in the day-old-chick model

To understand the role of flagella and fimbriae of Escherichia coli O78:K80 in avian colibacillosis, day-old chicks were dosed orally with defined afimbriate and or aflagellate mutants and colonization, invasion and persistence compared with that of the wild-type. In an invasion model, chicks were dosed with 1 x 10(5) c.f.u. of a single strain and mutants defective for type 1 fimbriae, curli fimbriae or flagella colonized livers by 24 h although the numbers of bacteria present were significantly less than the wild-type, Mutants colonized between 50 and 75 % of spleens whereas the wild-type colonized 100 % of spleens. Additionally, the numbers of mutant bacteria in colonized spleens were significantly less than the wild-type. Surprisingly, mutants defective for the elaboration of more than one appendage were no more attenuated than single mutants. In a persistence model, chicks were dosed with 1 x 10(2) c.f.u. of a single strain and mutants defective for type 1 or curli or flagella or any combination thereof persisted as assessed by cloacal swabbing for 5 weeks of the experiment less well than the wild-type. In an additional persistence model, chicks were dosed with 5 x 10(2) c.f.u. of each of wild-type and one mutant together. All mutants were significantly less persistent than the wild-type (P < 0.001) and one mutant which lacked type 1, curli and flagella, was eliminated within 2 weeks. Analysis of the trends of elimination indicated that flagella contributed to persistence more than curli, which contributed more than type 1 fimbriae. Here was evidence for a major role in colonization, invasion and persistence played by type 1, curli and flagella.