Nonlinear model structure design and construction using orthogonal least squares and D-optimality design

A very efficient learning algorithm for model subset selection is introduced based on a new composite cost function that simultaneously optimizes the model approximation ability and model robustness and adequacy. The derived model parameters are estimated via forward orthogonal least squares, but the model subset selection cost function includes a D-optimality design criterion that maximizes the determinant of the design matrix of the subset to ensure the model robustness, adequacy, and parsimony of the final model. The proposed approach is based on the forward orthogonal least square (OLS) algorithm, such that new D-optimality-based cost function is constructed based on the orthogonalization process to gain computational advantages and hence to maintain the inherent advantage of computational efficiency associated with the conventional forward OLS approach. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

Methods for kinematic modeling of biological and robotic systems

The main objective is to develop methods that automatically generate kinematic models for the movements of biological and robotic systems. Two methods for the identification of the kinematics are presented. The first method requires the elimination of the displacement variables that cannot be measured while the second method attempts to estimate the changes in these variables. The methods were tested using a planar two-revolute-joint linkage. Results show that the model parameters obtained agree with the actual parameters to within 5%. Moreover, the methods were applied to model head and neck movements in the sagittal plane. The results indicate that these movements are well modeled by a two-revolute-joint system. A spatial three-revolute-joint model was also discussed and tested.

Information sources and advice used by small business tenants when leasing commercial property

Many small businesses lease commercial premises. The terms of a lease can affect the ability of the business to grow and adapt and have an impact on cashflow. Ensuring that they have the information with which to negotiate terms is part of the UK government policy focus on small businesses. Such information is most effectively disseminated through the sources of advice that small businesses use during the leasing process. Therefore these sources of advice need identifying. An interview survey of small business tenants who have recently taken leases provides initial results that suggest small businesses do not seek out advice during the leasing process or see the need to be better informed. The only formal professional input is from solicitors but this is not until after the main commercial terms have been agreed. The landlords’ letting agents play a key, but ambiguous, role in providing information as well as advice. These results suggest that the most effective way of disseminating information by government could be via the letting agents, the very people with whom the tenants are negotiating.

Selecting from amongst non–nested conditional variance models: information criteria and portfolio determination

We consider the finite sample properties of model selection by information criteria in conditionally heteroscedastic models. Recent theoretical results show that certain popular criteria are consistent in that they will select the true model asymptotically with probability 1. To examine the empirical relevance of this property, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted for a set of non–nested data generating processes (DGPs) with the set of candidate models consisting of all types of model used as DGPs. In addition, not only is the best model considered but also those with similar values of the information criterion, called close competitors, thus forming a portfolio of eligible models. To supplement the simulations, the criteria are applied to a set of economic and financial series. In the simulations, the criteria are largely ineffective at identifying the correct model, either as best or a close competitor, the parsimonious GARCH(1, 1) model being preferred for most DGPs. In contrast, asymmetric models are generally selected to represent actual data. This leads to the conjecture that the properties of parameterizations of processes commonly used to model heteroscedastic data are more similar than may be imagined and that more attention needs to be paid to the behaviour of the standardized disturbances of such models, both in simulation exercises and in empirical modelling.