The water vapour continuum: brief history and recent developments

The water vapour continuum is characterised by absorption that varies smoothly with wavelength, from the visible to the microwave. It is present within the rotational and vibrational–rotational bands of water vapour, which consist of large numbers of narrow spectral lines, and in the many ‘windows’ between these bands. The continuum absorption in the window regions is of particular importance for the Earth’s radiation budget and for remote-sensing techniques that exploit these windows. Historically, most attention has focused on the 8–12 μm (mid-infrared) atmospheric window, where the continuum is relatively well-characterised, but there have been many fewer measurements within bands and in other window regions. In addition, the causes of the continuum remain a subject of controversy. This paper provides a brief historical overview of the development of understanding of the continuum and then reviews recent developments, with a focus on the near-infrared spectral region. Recent laboratory measurements in near-infrared windows, which reveal absorption typically an order of magnitude stronger than in widely used continuum models, are shown to have important consequences for remote-sensing techniques that use these windows for retrieving cloud properties.

A multidisciplinary literature review of low and zero carbon technologies into new housing

The UK Government is committed to all new homes being zero-carbon from 2016. The use of low and zero carbon (LZC) technologies is recognised by housing developers as being a key part of the solution to deliver against this zero-carbon target. The paper takes as its starting point that the selection of new technologies by firms is not a phenomenon which takes place within a rigid sphere of technical rationality (for example, Rip and Kemp, 1998). Rather, technology forms and diffusion trajectories are driven and shaped by myriad socio-technical structures, interests and logics. A literature review is offered to contribute to a more critical and systemic foundation for understanding the socio-technical features of the selection of LZC technologies in new housing. The problem is investigated through a multidisciplinary lens consisting of two perspectives: technological and institutional. The synthesis of the perspectives crystallises the need to understand that the selection of LZC technologies by housing developers is not solely dependent on technical or economic efficiency, but on the emergent ‘fit’ between the intrinsic properties of the technologies, institutional logics and the interests and beliefs of various actors in the housing development process.

Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models

Abstract: Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al.(2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

The place of diversity within history and the challenge of policy and curriculum

This article is a position paper which examines the political and public discourse around the areas of diversity and social cohesion, and history teaching. It examines the nature of these discourses and shows how they are in tension. Although discourse around diversity often has a focus on mutual understanding and finding areas of commonality, the discourse around history often focuses on the need to provide a sense of identity through a national story. By focusing on a discussion about the purposes of history, rather than merely on debates about content, it is suggested that these discourses can be brought more closely into line and produce a more productive line of policy debate.

A Kind of Integrity: explorations in history and drama

All of our knowledge of history is mediated in one way or another. Even the experience of first hand witnesses are, it may be argued, subject to semiotic influences such as physical and emotional position, attitudinal point of view and accuracy of recall. A great deal of historical knowledge is acquired through dramatised versions of historical events. As the characters who actually took part in historical events become the dramatis personae of re-enacted accounts, their stories are edited not only to meet dramatic necessities but the social, psychological and cultural needs of both storytellers and audience. The process of popularising history in this way thus becomes as much about the effects of events on people as the events themselves. This chapter describes and analyses the way in which four historical events have formed the basis of school based drama workshops that explore this process. The Player in Tom Stoppard’s ‘Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead’ posits that actors do on stage what others are supposed to do off, which, he claims, ‘is a kind of integrity.’ The chapter discusses how drama may be used to explore not only stories from history but how those stories may be mediated and so become open to multiple interpretations. The process of dramatising events from history provides opportunities to develop and exercise a critical literacy that is concerned not so much with either fact or empathy as with interrogating both why and how stories are told. Thus, the experience of exploring the symbiotic relationship between drama and history is dependent on an internal logic which may indeed be perceived as a kind of integrity.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

The climate and environment of Byzantine Anatolia: integrating science, history, and archaeology

The integration of high-resolution archaeological, textual, and environmental data with longer-term, low-resolution data affords greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change. Regional and microregional case studies about the Byzantine world—in particular, Anatolia, which for several centuries was the heart of that world—reveal many of the difficulties that researchers face when attempting to assess the influence of environmental factors on human society. The Anatolian case challenges a number of assumptions about the impact of climatic factors on socio-political organization and medium-term historical evolution, highlighting the importance of further collaboration between historians, archaeologists, and climate scientists.

Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals

Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management.