Stratospheric water vapour and high climate sensitivity in a version of the HadSM3 climate model

It has been shown previously that one member of the Met Office Hadley Centre single-parameter perturbed physics ensemble – the so-called "low entrainment parameter" member – has a much higher climate sensitivity than other individual parameter perturbations. Here we show that the concentration of stratospheric water vapour in this member is over three times higher than observations, and, more importantly for climate sensitivity, increases significantly when climate warms. The large surface temperature response of this ensemble member is more consistent with stratospheric humidity change, rather than upper tropospheric clouds as has been previously suggested. The direct relationship between the bias in the control state (elevated stratospheric humidity) and the cause of the high climate sensitivity (a further increase in stratospheric humidity) lends further doubt as to the realism of this particular integration. This, together with other evidence, lowers the likelihood that the climate system's physical sensitivity is significantly higher than the likely upper range quoted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

Correlations between microphysical properties of large-scale semi-transparent cirrus and the state of the atmosphere

By making use of TOVS Path-B satellite retrievals and ECMWF reanalyses, correlations between bulk microphysical properties of large-scale semi-transparent cirrus (visible optical thickness between 0.7 and 3.8) and thermodynamic and dynamic properties of the surrounding atmosphere have been studied on a global scale. These clouds constitute about half of all high clouds. The global averages (from 60°N to 60°S) of mean ice crystal diameter, De, and ice water path (IWP) of these clouds are 55 μm and 30 g m−2, respectively. IWP of these cirrus is slightly increasing with cloud-top temperature, whereas De of cold cirrus does not depend on this parameter. Correlations between De and IWp of large-scale cirrus seem to be different in the midlatitudes and in the tropics. However, we observe in general stronger correlations between De and IWP and atmospheric humidity and winds deduced from the ECMWF reanalyses: De and IWP increase both with increasing atmospheric water vapour. There is also a good distinction between different dynamical situations: In humid situations, IWP is on average about 10 gm−2 larger in regions with strong large-scale vertical updraft only that in regions with strong large-scale horizontal winds only, whereas the mean De of cold large-scale cirrus decreases by about 10 μm if both strong large-scale updraft and horizontal winds are present.

Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

Enhancement of the aerosol direct radiative effect by semi-volatile aerosol components: airborne measurements in North-Western Europe

A case study of atmospheric aerosol measurements exploring the impact of the vertical distribution of aerosol chemical composition upon the radiative budget in North-Western Europe is presented. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured by an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) on both an airborne platform and a ground-based site at Cabauw in the Netherlands. The examined period in May 2008 was characterised by enhanced pollution loadings in North-Western Europe and was dominated by ammonium nitrate and Organic Matter (OM). Both ammonium nitrate and OM were observed to increase with altitude in the atmospheric boundary layer. This is primarily attributed to partitioning of semi-volatile gas phase species to the particle phase at reduced temperature and enhanced relative humidity. Increased ammonium nitrate concentrations in particular were found to strongly increase the ambient scattering potential of the aerosol burden, which was a consequence of the large amount of associated water as well as the enhanced mass. During particularly polluted conditions, increases in aerosol optical depth of 50–100% were estimated to occur due to the observed increase in secondary aerosol mass and associated water uptake. Furthermore, the single scattering albedo was also shown to increase with height in the boundary layer. These enhancements combined to increase the negative direct aerosol radiative forcing by close to a factor of two at the median percentile level. Such increases have major ramifications for regional climate predictions as semi-volatile components are often not included in aerosol models. The results presented here provide an ideal opportunity to test regional and global representations of both the aerosol vertical distribution and subsequent impacts in North-Western Europe. North-Western Europe can be viewed as an analogue for the possible future air quality over other polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where substantial reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions have yet to occur. Anticipated reductions in sulphur dioxide in polluted regions will result in an increase in the availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate as opposed to ammonium sulphate. This will be most important where intensive agricultural practises occur. Our observations over North-Western Europe, a region where sulphur dioxide emissions have already been reduced, indicate that failure to include the semi-volatile behaviour of ammonium nitrate will result in significant errors in predicted aerosol direct radiative forcing. Such errors will be particularly significant on regional scales.

Priming and re-drying improve the survival of mature seeds of Digitalis purpurea during storage

Most priming studies have been conducted on commercial seed lots of unspecified uniformity and maturity, and subsequent seed longevity has been reported to both increase and decrease. Here a seed lot of Digitalis purpurea L. with relatively uniform maturity and known history was used to analyse the effects of priming on seed longevity in air-dry storage. Seeds collected close to natural dispersal and dried at 15 % relative humidity (RH), 15 degrees C, were placed into experimental storage (60 % RH, 45 degrees C) for 14 or 28 d, primed for 48 h at 0, -1, -2, -5, -10 or -15 MPa, re-equilibrated (47 % RH, 20 degrees C) and then returned to storage. Further seed samples were primed for 2 or 48 h at -1 MPa and either dried at 15 % RH, 15 degrees C or immediately re-equilibrated for experimental storage. Finally, some seeds were given up to three cycles of experimental storage and priming (48 h at -1 MPa). Priming at -1 MPa had a variable effect on subsequent survival during experimental storage. The shortest lived seeds in the control population showed slightly increased life spans; the longer lived seeds showed reduced life spans. In contrast, seeds first stored for 14 or 28 d before priming had substantially increased life spans. The increase tended to be greatest in the shortest lived fraction of the seed population. Both the period of rehydration and the subsequent drying conditions had significant effects on longevity. Interrupting air-dry storage with additional cycles of priming also increased longevity. The extent of prior deterioration and the post-priming desiccation environment affect the benefits of priming to the subsequent survival of mature seeds. Rehydration-dehydration treatments may have potential as an adjunct or alternative to the regeneration of seed accessions maintained in gene banks for plant biodiversity conservation or plant breeding.

Seed longevity - moisture content relationships in hermetic and open storage

In seed storage research, moisture content can be maintained by providing a stable relative humidity (e.g. over saturated salt solutions) or by hermetic storage, but the two approaches provide different gaseous environments which might affect longevity. Seeds of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) and sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) were stored at 45 degrees C or 50 degrees C, respectively, with different moisture contents maintained by hermetic storage in laminated-aluminium-foil packets, or by desiccators above either saturated salt solutions or moistened silica gel. Seeds were withdrawn from storage at intervals from 1 to 28 d for up to 480 d and viability estimated. Within a species, the negative logarithmic relation between seed longevity and moisture content did not differ (P> 0.25, timothy; >0.05, sesame) between storage in desiccators over either moistened silica gel or saturated salt solutions, whereas the relation was much steeper (P< 0.005) in hermetic storage: longevity was similar at high moisture contents, but at low values much greater with hermetic storage. This effect of storage method on seed longevity's sensitivity to moisture content implies that oxygen is relatively more deleterious to seeds at lower than at greater moisture contents and confirms that hermetic storage is preferable for long-term seed storage at low moisture contents.

Survival and vigour of ultra-dry seeds after ten years of hermetic storage

Seeds of carrot, groundnut, lettuce, oilseed rape and onion were stored hermetically in laminated aluminium foil packets in four environments (dry or ultra-dry moisture contents combined factorially with temperatures of 20 degrees C or -20 degrees C), replicated at several sites. After ten years' hermetic storage, seed moisture content, equilibrium relative humidity, viability (assessed by ability to germinate normally in standard germination tests) and vigour were determined. After a decade, the change in seed moisture content of samples stored at -20 degrees C was small or nil. Except for groundnut and lettuce (where loss in viability was about 8 and 3%, respectively), no loss in viability was detected after 10 years' hermetic storage at -20 degrees C. In all cases, there was no difference in seed survival between moisture contents at this temperature (P > 0.25). Comparison of seed vigour (root length and rate of germination) also confirmed that drying to moisture contents in equilibrium with 10-12% r.h. had no detrimental effect to longevity when stored at -20 degrees C: the only significant (P < 0.05) differences detected were slightly greater root lengths for ultra-dry storage of four of the six seed lots. Seed moisture content had increased after a decade at 20 degrees C (generally to the level in equilibrium with ambient relative humidity). Hence, sub-zero temperature storage helped maintain the long-term integrity of the laminated aluminium foil packets, as well as that of the seeds within.

Effects of desiccation on seed germination, cracking, fungal infection and survival in storage of Sterculia foetida L

Seeds of Sterculia foetida were tested for germination following desiccation and subsequent hermetic storage. Whereas seeds at 10.3% moisture content were intact and provided 98% germination, further desiccation reduced germination substantially. The majority of seed coats had cracked after desiccation to 5.1% moisture content. Ability to germinate was not reduced after 12 months' hermetic storage at 10.3% and 7.3% moisture content at 15 degrees C or -18 degrees C, but was reduced considerably at 5.1%. Fungal infection was detected consistently for cracked seeds in germination tests and they did not germinate. However, almost all embryos extracted from cracked seeds germinated if first disinfected with sodium hypochlorite (1%, 5 minutes). In addition. 80 -100% of disinfected extracted embryos from cracked seeds stored hermetically for 28 d at -18 degrees C or -82 degrees C with 3.3% to 6.0% moisture content, and excised embryos stored in this way, were able to germinate. Hence. failure of the very dry seeds of Sterculia foetida to germinate was not due to embryo death from desiccation but to cracking increasing susceptibility to fungal infection upon rehydration. Cracking was associated negatively and strongly with relative humidity and appears to be a mechanical consequence of substantial differences between the isotherms of whole seeds compared with cotyledons and axes.

Mutant alleles at the rugosus loci in pea affect seed moisture sorption isotherms and the relations between seed longevity and moisture content

Pea (Pisum sativum L.) mutant near-isogenic lines (RRrbrb, rrRbRb, rrrbrb) with lower starch but higher lipid contents, brought about by lesions in the starch biosynthetic pathway, had seed moisture sorption isotherms displaced below that of the wild type (RRRbRb). The negative logarithmic relationship between seed longevity and seed storage moisture content (%, f.wt basis), determined in hermetic storage at 65 degreesC, also differed: longevity in the mutant near-isogenic lines was poorer and less sensitive to moisture content than in the wild type (i.e. C-w was lower). The low-moisture-content limit (m(c)) to this relation also differed, being lower in the mutant near-isogenic lines (5.4-5.9%) than in the wild type (6.1%). In contrast, all four near-isogenic lines showed no difference (P >0.25) in the negative semilogarithmic relationship between equilibrium relative humidity (ERH) and seed longevity. It is concluded that the effect of these alleles at the r and rb loci on seed longevity. was largely indirect; a consequence of their effect on seed composition and hence on moisture sorption isotherms. However, this explanation could not be invoked at moisture contents below mc where differences in longevity remained substantial (RRRbRb double that of rrrbrb). Hence, these mutant alleles affected seed longevity directly at very low moisture contents.

Prediction of cottonseed longevity

The objective of this work was to determine the viability equation constants for cottonseed and to detect the occurrence and depletion of hardseededness. Three seedlots of Brazilian cultivars IAC-19 and IAC-20 were tested, using 12 moisture content levels, ranging from 2.2 to 21.7% and three storage temperatures, 40, 50 and 65 degrees C. Seed moisture content level was reached from the initial value (around 8.8%) either by rehydration, in a closed container, or by drying in desiccators containing silica gel, both at 20 degrees C. Twelve seed subsamples for each moisture content/temperature treatment were sealed in laminated aluminium-foil packets and stored in incubators at those temperatures, until complete survival curves were obtained. Seed equilibrium relative humidity was recorded. Hardseededness was detected at moisture content levels below 6% and its releasing was achieved either naturally, during storage period, or artificially through seed coat removal. The viability equation quantified the response of seed longevity to storage environment well with K-E = 9.240, C-W = 5.190, C-H = 0.03965 and C-Q = 0.000426. The lower limit estimated for application of this equation at 65 degrees C was 3.6% moisture content.

Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Mutant alleles at the rugosus loci in pea affect seed moisture sorption isotherms and the relations between seed longevity and moisture content

Pea (Pisum sativum L.) mutant near-isogenic lines (RRrbrb, rrRbRb, rrrbrb) with lower starch but higher lipid contents, brought about by lesions in the starch biosynthetic pathway, had seed moisture sorption isotherms displaced below that of the wild type (RRRbRb). The negative logarithmic relationship between seed longevity and seed storage moisture content (%, f.wt basis), determined in hermetic storage at 65 °C, also differed: longevity in the mutant near-isogenic lines was poorer and less sensitive to moisture content than in the wild type (i.e. CW was lower). The low-moisture-content limit (mc) to this relation also differed, being lower in the mutant near-isogenic lines (5.4–5.9%) than in the wild type (6.1%). In contrast, all four near-isogenic lines showed no difference (P >0.25) in the negative semi-logarithmic relationship between equilibrium relative humidity (ERH) and seed longevity. It is concluded that the effect of these alleles at the r and rb loci on seed longevity was largely indirect; a consequence of their effect on seed composition and hence on moisture sorption isotherms. However, this explanation could not be invoked at moisture contents below mc where differences in longevity remained substantial (RRRbRb double that of rrrbrb). Hence, these mutant alleles affected seed longevity directly at very low moisture contents.

In situ observation of lithium hydride hydrolysis by DRIFT spectroscopy

Polycrystalline LiH was studied in situ using diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy to investigate the effect water vapour has on the rate of production of the corrosion products, particularly LiOH. The reaction rate of the formation of surface LiOH was monitored by measurement of the hydroxyl (OH) band at 3676 cm(-1). The initial hydrolysis rate of LiH exposed to water vapour at 50% relative humidity was found to be almost two times faster than LiH exposed to water vapour at 2% relative humidity. The hydrolysis rate was shown to be initially very rapid followed by a much slower, almost linear rate. The change in hydrolysis rate was attributed to the formation of a coherent layer of LiOH on the LiH surface. Exposure to lower levels of water vapour appeared to result in the formation of a more coherent corrosion product, resulting in effective passivation of the surface to further attack from water. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.