Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model

A two-sector Ramsey-type model of growth is developed to investigate the relationship between agricultural productivity and economy-wide growth. The framework takes into account the peculiarities of agriculture both in production ( reliance on a fixed natural resource base) and in consumption (life-sustaining role and low income elasticity of food demand). The transitional dynamics of the model establish that when preferences respect Engel's law, the level and growth rate of agricultural productivity influence the speed of capital accumulation. A calibration exercise shows that a small difference in agricultural productivity has drastic implications for the rate and pattern of growth of the economy. Hence, low agricultural productivity can form a bottleneck limiting growth, because high food prices result in a low saving rate.

In situ degradability of dry matter and neutral-detergent fibre of thorn scrubland forage consumed by goats in the semi-arid region of north Mexico

Three goats provided with oesophageal and ruminal cannulae were used to determine variations in dry matter (DM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) degradability of the forage consumed when grazing thorn scrubland in the semi-arid region of north Mexico, during two consecutive dry and wet periods. Ingesta samples were incubated intraruminally, the data were fitted to the exponential equation P = a + b (1-e(-ct)) and statistically analysed using a randomized-block design. Organic matter and crude protein (CP) contents were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Values of NDF were similar in dry and wet season of both years whereas higher numerical values of acid-detergent fibre (ADF), lignin and cellulose were registered in the dry seasons. DM and NDF degradabilities after 24 and 48 h of ruminal incubation were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Higher values (P < 0.05) in DM and NDF bag losses at zero time (A fraction) were registered in the two wet seasons. The insoluble but fermentable DM and NDF (B fractions) were higher (P < 0.05) in the 1999 wet season and variable in the rest of the studied period. Numerically higher values of DM and NDF c fraction were found in wet periods, whereas DM and NDF potential degradabilities were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet season in 1999 and similar across seasons in 2000. Lowest (P < 0.05) contents of CP in grazed forage, DM and NDF degradabilities after 48 h of ruminal incubation, and A, and B, and c fractions were observed in the dry seasons. Thus, these results may be related to both the lower feeding value of forage consumed by the animals and lower performance of livestock during this period. Then, the DM and NDF degradability after 48 h, together with the insoluble but fermentable matter and the c fraction permit the nutritive value of the forage consumed by grazing goats to be accurately described.

Genetic parameters and evaluations from single- and multiple-trait analysis of dairy cow fertility and milk production

Genetic parameters and breeding values for dairy cow fertility were estimated from 62 443 lactation records. Two-trait analysis of fertility and milk yield was investigated as a method to estimate fertility breeding values when culling or selection based on milk yield in early lactation determines presence or absence of fertility observations in later lactations. Fertility traits were calving interval, intervals from calving to first service, calving to conception and first to last service, conception success to first service and number of services per conception. Milk production traits were 305-day milk, fat and protein yield. For fertility traits, range of estimates of heritability (h(2)) was 0.012 to 0.028 and of permanent environmental variance (c(2)) was 0.016 to 0.032. Genetic correlations (r(g)) among fertility traits were generally high ( > 0.70). Genetic correlations of fertility with milk production traits were unfavourable (range -0.11 to 0.46). Single and two-trait analyses of fertility were compared using the same data set. The estimates of h(2) and c(2) were similar for two types of analyses. However, there were differences between estimated breeding values and rankings for the same trait from single versus multi-trait analyses. The range for rank correlation was 0.69-0.83 for all animals in the pedigree and 0.89-0.96 for sires with more than 25 daughters. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of replacing calcium salts of palm oil distillate with extruded linseeds on milk fatty acid composition in Jersey and Holstein cows

Clinical and biomedical studies have provided evidence for the critical role of n-3 fatty acids on the reduction of chronic disease risk in humans, including cardiovascular disease. In the current experiment, the potential to enhance milk n-3 content in two breeds with inherent genetic differences in mammary lipogenesis and de novo fatty acid synthesis was examined using extruded linseeds. Six lactating cows (three Holstein and three Jersey) were used in a two-treatment switchback design with 3 × 21-day experimental periods to evaluate the effect of iso-energetic replacement of calcium salts of palm oil distillate (CPO) in the diet (34 g/kg dry matter (DM)) with 100 g/kg DM extruded linseeds (LIN). For both breeds, replacing CPO with LIN had no effect (P > 0.05) on DM intake or milk yield, but reduced (P < 0.05) milk fat and protein yield (on average, from 760 to 706 and 573 to 552 g/day, respectively). Relative to CPO, the LIN treatment reduced (P < 0.01) total saturated fatty acid content and enhanced (P < 0.001) 18:3n-3 in milk, whereas breed by diet interactions were significant for milk fat 16:0, total trans fatty acid and conjugated linoleic acid concentrations. Increases in 18:3n-3 intake derived from LIN in the diet were transferred into milk with a mean marginal transfer efficiency of 1.8%. Proportionate changes in milk fatty acid composition were greater in the Jersey, highlighting the importance of diet–genotype interactions on mammary lipogenesis. More extensive studies are required to determine the role of genotype on milk fat composition responses to oilseeds in the diet.

Effect of replacing grass silage with maize silage in the diet on bovine milk fatty acid composition

Even though extensive research has examined the role of nutrition on milk fat composition, there is less information on the impact of forages on milk fatty acid (FA) composition. In the current study, the effect of replacing grass silage (GS) with maize silage (MS) as part of a total mixed ration on animal performance and milk FA composition was examined using eight multiparous mid-lactation cows in a replicated 4 X 4 Latin square with 28-day experimental periods. Four treatments comprised the stepwise replacement of GS with MS (0, 160, 334 and 500 g/kg dry matter (DM)) in diets containing a 54:46 forage: concentrate ratio on a DM basis. Replacing GS with MS increased (P < 0.001) the DM intake, milk yield and milk protein content. Incremental replacement of GS with MS in the diet enhanced linearly (P < 0.001) the proportions of 6:0-14:0, decreased (P < 0.01) the 16:0 concentrations, but had no effect on the total milk fat saturated fatty acid content. Inclusion of MS altered the distribution of trans-18:1 isomers and enhanced (P < 0.05) total trans monounsaturated fatty acid and total conjugated linoleic acid content. Milk total n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) content decreased with higher amounts of MS in the diet and n-6 PUFA concentration increased, leading to an elevated n-6: n-3 PUFA ratio. Despite some beneficial changes associated with the replacement of GS with MS, the overall effects on milk FA composition would not be expected to substantially improve long-term human health. However the role of forages on milk fat composition must also be balanced against the increases in total milk and protein yield on diets containing higher proportions of MS.

Productivity change in Polish agriculture: an illustration of a bootstrapping procedure applied to Malmquist indices

This article illustrates the usefulness of applying bootstrap procedures to total factor productivity Malmquist indices, derived with data envelopment analysis (DEA), for a sample of 250 Polish farms during 1996-2000. The confidence intervals constructed as in Simar and Wilson suggest that the common portrayal of productivity decline in Polish agriculture may be misleading. However, a cluster analysis based on bootstrap confidence intervals reveals that important policy conclusions can be drawn regarding productivity enhancement.

Productivity and optimum plant density of pigeonpea in different environments in Tanzania

The objective of the present study was to determine the optimum plant density of four pigeonpea genotypes, representing early, medium and late maturing types, grown in five contrasting environments in Tanzania. ICPL 86005 (early), Kat 50/3 and QP 37 (medium) and Local (late) were grown at four plant densities (40 000-320 000 plants/ha) in irrigated and rainfed conditions at Ilonga and under rainfed conditions at Kibaha, Selian and Ismani. At maturity, total above-ground biomass and seed yield (SY) were measured. The highest yields were obtained in the irrigated experiment at Ilonga, where the medium/late genotypes produced 25 t biomass/ha and 5 center dot 6 t seed/ha. The lowest SY were at Kibaha, 0 58 to 1 center dot 76 t/ha, where a severe drought occurred. In nearly all cases the response to density was linear or asymptotic. The response of ICPL 86005 was significantly different from the other three genotypes. The optimum density for SY varied from 37 000 to 227 000 plants/ha in ICPL 86005, compared with 3000 to 101000 plants/ha in the medium/late genotypes. The highest optimum density was at Selian and Ismani and the lowest at Ilonga and Kibaha, where drought occurred. Optimum densities therefore varied greatly with genotype (duration) and environment, and this variation needs to be considered when planning trials.

Influence of porcine genotype on the abundance of thyroid hormones and leptin in sow milk and its impact on growth, metabolism and expression of key adipose tissue genes in offspring

Neonatal mortality is greater in commercial porcine genotypes, compared with the ancient Meishan breed that rapidly lay down adipose tissue; this may be related to hormones, such as triiodothyronine (T3) or leptin. Leptin is present in maternal milk; however, the extent to which this supply provides the neonate with leptin is unknown, but may play a role in growth and development. We investigated whether thyroid hormones and leptin concentrations in maternal milk differed between genotypes; and whether this influenced piglet concentrations or expression of genes involved in adipose tissue regulation. Eight Meishan and six commercial sows were entered into the study and milk samples from the day of parturition to day 4 postpartum was taken daily. The median birth weight piglet in each litter had a daily venous blood sample taken and was euthanised on day 4. Gene expressions of IGF-I, IGF-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), peroxisome proliferators activated receptor (PPAR) and glucocorticoid receptor (GR) were measured in adipose tissue using real-time PCR. T3 was increased in Meishan milk, but not in piglet plasma. Milk thyroxine was similar between breeds but commercial piglet levels were significantly higher. Leptin was higher in commercial sow milk throughout the study. Milk leptin was strongly correlated to plasma leptin during the first postnatal days and also to organ and body weight in Meishan piglets that also had significantly higher expression of GR, but not IGF-I, IGFBP-3 or PPAR. In conclusion, we have found a significant disparity in the provision of thyroid hormones in Meishan and commercial sow’s milk. These changes are not always translated to plasma concentrations of hormone in the piglet. Leptin appears to have a stronger role in growth and development in the Meishan genotype compared with commercial; along with the increased GR expression, this may also represent a potential mechanism behind the rapid accumulation of adipose tissue in Meishan piglets.

Some factors affecting variation in milk yield in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting milk yield in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of milk yield, body condition score (BCS) and heart girth measurements were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in milk yield were investigated using a general linear model by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. Daily milk yield (including milk sucked by calves) was determined by calving year (p < 0.0001), calf rearing method (p = 0.044) and BCS at calving (p < 0.0001). Only BCS at calving contributed to variation in volume of milk sucked by the calf, lactation length and lactation milk yield. BCS at 3 months after calving was improved on farms where labour was hired (p = 0.041) and BCS change from calving to 6 months was more than twice as likely to be negative on U than SU and PU farms. It was concluded that milk production was predominantly associated with BCS at calving, lactation milk yield increasing quadratically from score 1 to 3. BCS at calving may provide a simple, single indicator of the nutritional status of a cow population.

Estimation of milk production from smallholder dairy cattle in the coastal lowlands of Kenya

A study was carried out on 92 smallholder farms in Kwale district in Coast Province of Kenya to estimate the milk yield. The effect of concentrate feed supplementation on milk yield was also evaluated. Data were collected during a one-year observational longitudinal study. Analysis was done for 371 observations following 63 calving events. The mean annual milk offtake was estimated at 2021 kg/cow. Forty-nine (77.8%) of the lactating cows were supplemented with concentrate feeds at varying rates of 0.5-3.0 kg/cow per day. Supplementary feeding of lactating cows led to a significantly higher mean daily milk yield compared to non-supplemented cows throughout the year (p<0.05). The mean annual milk offtake from supplemented cows (2195 kg/cow) was 18.6% more than offtake from non-supplemented cows, a difference that was statistically significant (p<0.05). Therefore, supplementary feeding of commercial feed concentrates was a rational management practice. It was also concluded that milk production from smallholder dairy cows in the coastal lowlands of Kenya was comparable to that from similar production systems but lower than national targets.

Detection of transgenic DNA and protein, in rumen fluid, duodenal digesta, milk, blood and faeces of lactating dairy cows

The objective was to determine the presence or absence of transgenic and endogenous plant DNA in ruminal fluid, duodenal digesta, milk, blood, and feces, and if found, to determine fragment size. Six multiparous lactating Holstein cows fitted with ruminal and duodenal cannulas received a total mixed ration. There were two treatments (T). In T1, the concentrate contained genetically modified (GM) soybean meal (cp4epsps gene) and GM corn grain (cry1a[b] gene), whereas T2 contained the near isogenic non-GM counterparts. Polymerase chain reaction analysis was used to determine the presence or absence of DNA sequences. Primers were selected to amplify small fragments from single-copy genes (soy lectin and corn high-mobility protein and cp4epsps and cry1a[b] genes from the GM crops) and multicopy genes (bovine mitochondrial cytochrome b and rubisco). Single-copy genes were only detected in the solid phase of rumen and duodenal digesta. In contrast, fragments of the rubisco gene were detected in the majority of samples analyzed in both the liquid and solid phases of ruminal and duodenal digesta, milk, and feces, but rarely in blood. The size of the rubisco gene fragments detected decreased from 1176 bp in ruminal and duodenal digesta to 351 bp in fecal samples.