Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Post War land reform and the impact on planning in Japan

One feature of Japanese urban areas in the 21st century that is bound to strike any Western visitor is the extensive spread of its suburbs with their varied mixing of land-uses. It is almost impossible to pinpoint precisely where the city begins and where it ends. During the post-War period, this characteristic pattern of land-use sprawled over the countryside, seemingly unimpeded by planning restrictions. The number of studies that highlight the problems of Japanese planning outweighs the research that explores its underlying causes. This paper aims to partly redress this imbalance by describing a case study of the failed implementation of the green belt around Tokyo and to link this with the Allied Occupation’s postwar land reforms and drafting of a new constitution in the period 1946-1951. Overall, we aim to highlight how the ostensible benefits and aims of a land reform programme can entail substantial disbenefits or unforeseen outcomes in terms of land-use planning..

Access to the countryside of England and Wales: public/private partnership or the privatisation of public rights?

This paper examines the evolution of public rights of access to private land in England and Wales. Since the Eighteenth Century the administration and protection of these rights has been though a form of public/private partnership in which the judiciary, while maintaining the dominance of private property, have safeguarded de facto public access by refusing consistently to punish simple trespass. While this situation has been modified, principally by post-World War II legislation, to allow for some formalisation of access arrangements and consequent compensation to landowners in areas of high recreational pressure and low legal accessibility, recent policy initiatives suggest that the balance of the partnership has now shifted in favour of landowners. In particular, the new access payment schemes, developed by the UK Government in response to the European Commission's Agri-Environment Regulations, locate the landowner as the beneficiary of the partnership, financed by tax revenue and justified on the spurious basis of improved 'access provision'. As such the state, as the former upholder of citizen rights, now assumes the duplicitous position of underwriting private property ownership through the commodification of access, while proclaiming a significant improvement in citizens' access rights.

Identifying antimicrobial resistance genes of human clinical relevance within Salmonella isolated from food animals in Great Britain

To investigate the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance genes of human clinical relevance in Salmonella isolated from livestock in Great Britain. Two hundred and twenty-five Salmonella enterica isolates were characterized using an antimicrobial resistance gene chip and disc diffusion assays. Plasmid profiling, conjugation experiments and identification of Salmonella genomic island 1 (SGI1) were performed for selected isolates. Approximately 43% of Salmonella harboured single or multiple antimicrobial resistance genes with pig isolates showing the highest numbers where 96% of Salmonella Typhimurium harboured one or more resistance genes. Isolates harbouring multiple resistances divided into three groups. Group 1 isolates harboured ampicillin/streptomycin/sulphonamide/tetracycline resistance and similar phenotypes. This group contained isolates from pigs, cattle and poultry that were from several serovars including Typhimurium, 4,[5],12:i:-, Derby, Ohio and Indiana. All Group 2 isolates were from pigs and were Salmonella Typhimurium. They contained a non-sul-type class 1 integron and up to 13 transferrable resistances. All Group 3 isolates harboured a class 1 integron and were isolated from all animal species included in the study. Most isolates were Salmonella Typhimurium and harboured SGI1. Salmonella isolated from livestock was shown to harbour antimicrobial resistance genes although no or little resistance to third-generation cephalosporins or ciprofloxacin, respectively, was detected. The preponderance in pigs of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium makes it important to introduce control measures such as improved biosecurity to ensure that they do not pass through the food chain and limit human therapeutic options.

A high prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli isolated from pigs and a low prevalence of antimicrobial resistant E-coli from cattle and sheep in Great Britain at slaughter

The incidence of antimicrobial resistance and expressed and unexpressed resistance genes among commensal Escherichia coli isolated from healthy farm animals at slaughter in Great Britain was investigated. The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among the isolates varied according to the animal species; of 836 isolates from cattle tested only 5.7% were resistant to one or more antimicrobials, while only 3.0% of 836 isolates from sheep were resistant to one or more agents. However, 92.1% of 2480 isolates from pigs were resistant to at least one antimicrobial. Among isolates from pigs, resistance to some antimicrobials such as tetracycline (78.7%), sulphonamide (66.9%) and streptomycin (37.5%) was found to be common, but relatively rare to other agents such as amikacin (0.1%), ceftazidime ( 0.1%) and coamoxiclav (0.2%). The isolates had a diverse range of resistance gene profiles, with tet(B), sul2 and strAB identified most frequently. Seven out of 615 isolates investigated carried unexpressed resistance genes. One trimethoprim-susceptible isolate carried a complete dfrA17 gene but lacked a promoter for it. However, in the remaining six streptomycin-susceptible isolates, one of which carried strAB while the others carried aadA, no mutations or deletions in gene or promoter sequences were identified to account for susceptibility. The data indicate that antimicrobial resistance in E. coli of animal origin is due to a broad range of acquired genes.

Land use intensity and trees on farms in Malawi

Rapidly increasing population densities in Malawi have put a huge strain on the existing agricultural land and the surrounding woodland. Smallholder agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Malawi’s rural population and many farmers have been forced to cultivate marginal lands with less fertile soils, making conditions much more difficult to grow crops. Natural woodland is under increasing pressure from the opening of new lands for cultivation and the increased demand for firewood, timber and other woody resources, with rural households historically obtaining most of their complementary inputs and saleable commodities from nearby areas of forest (Arnold, 1997a). Despite this increasing pressure, woodlands are not being cleared indiscriminately; selected indigenous species are left standing in fields and around households. These are joined by exotic species that are planted and maintained. These trees provide products and services that are vital, yielding food, firewood, building materials and medicine, replenishing soil fertility and protecting against soil erosion. Following a Boserupian approach, this study attempts to establish the reality of a trajectory of enhanced on-farm tree planting and management as population pressure mounts and as part of a more general process of agricultural intensification. The study examines the combination of factors (social, economic, political and environmental) that either stimulate or discourage on-farm tree planting on smallholdings in Malawi, highlighting how woodland resource use changes over a gradient of land use intensity. This study gives a detailed insight into the way that tree planting and management in the smallholder farming system in Malawi works and identifies a trend of increased tree planting/management alongside an increase in agricultural intensification. However, there is no single ‘path’ of intensification; the link between agricultural change and tree planting is complex and there are many trajectories of intensification that a farmer may follow, dependent on his/her social or economic circumstances. The study recommends that agroforestry interventions give rigorous consideration to the needs of the local community, and the suitability of trees to address those needs, before embarking on programmes that advocate tree planting and management as a panacea.

An industry viewpoint on the role of farm assurance in delivering food safety to the consumer: the case of the dairy sector in England and Wales

Food safety, alongside food quality, remains a primary concern of both consumers and those along the whole food supply chain, leading to regulation by government alongside private third party certification. Much has been written about the value of these systems primarily from the perception of the consumer. This paper reports on a study that examined industry perceptions on the regulatory and assurance systems within the dairy sector of England and Wales. It found that the primary producer found value in both systems, although from a food hygiene focus regulation was seen to be more rigorous. Other stakeholders along the dairy food supply chain saw the assurance scheme as more rigorous. All stakeholders recognised the need to reduce duplication in delivering food safety through combining key elements of both systems with the added potential for better communication of both food safety and quality to the final consumer.

Late-Holocene changes in character and behaviour of land-terminating glaciers on James Ross Island, Antarctica

Virtually no information is available on the response of land-terminating Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climate change on a centennial timescale. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology and sedimentology of prominent moraines on James Ross Island, Antarctica, to determine geometric changes and to interpret glacier behaviour. The moraines are very likely due to a late-Holocene phase of advance and featured (1) shearing and thrusting within the snout, (2) shearing and deformation of basal sediment, (3) more supraglacial debris than at present and (4) short distances of sediment transport. Retreat of ∼100 m and thinning of 15–20 m has produced a loss of 0.1 km3 of ice. The pattern of surface lowering is asymmetric. These geometrical changes are suggested most simply to be due to a net negative mass balance caused by a drier climate. Comparisons of the moraines with the current glaciological surface structure of the glaciers permits speculation of a transition from a polythermal to a cold-based thermal regime. Small land-terminating glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region could be cooling despite a warming climate.