Postpartum GAD is a risk factor for postpartum MDD: the course and longitudinal relationships of postpartum GAD and MDD

Background The objective was to examine the course and longitudinal associations of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in mothers over the postpartum 2 years. Method Using a prospective naturalistic design, 296 mothers recruited from a large community pool were assessed for GAD and MDD at 3, 6, 10, 14, and 24 months postpartum. Structured clinical interviews were used for diagnoses, and symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine diagnostic stability and longitudinal relations, and latent variable modeling was employed to examine change in symptoms. Results MDD without co-occurring GAD, GAD without co-occurring MDD, and co-occurring GAD and MDD, displayed significant stability during the postpartum period. Whereas MDD did not predict subsequent GAD, GAD predicted subsequent MDD (in the form of GAD + MDD). Those with GAD + MDD at 3 months postpartum were significantly less likely to be diagnosis free during the follow-up period than those in other diagnostic categories. At the symptom level, symptoms of GAD were more trait-like than those of depression. Conclusions Postpartum GAD and MDD are relatively stable conditions, and GAD is a risk factor for MDD but not vice versa. Given the tendency of MDD and GAD to be persistent, especially when comorbid, and the increased risk for MDD in mothers with GAD, as well as the potential negative effects of cumulative exposure to maternal depression and anxiety on child development, the present findings clearly highlight the need for screening and treatment of GAD in addition to MDD during the postpartum period.

Mixing length controls on high resolution simulations of convective storms

We perform simulations of several convective events over the southern UK with the Met Office Unified Model (UM) at horizontal grid lengths ranging from 1.5 km to 200 m. Comparing the simulated storms on these days with the Met Office rainfall radar network allows us to apply a statistical approach to evaluate the properties and evolution of the simulated storms over a range of conditions. Here we present results comparing the storm morphology in the model and reality which show that the simulated storms become smaller as grid length decreases and that the grid length that fits the observations best changes with the size of the observed cells. We investigate the sensitivity of storm morphology in the model to the mixing length used in the subgrid turbulence scheme. As the subgrid mixing length is decreased, the number of small storms with high area-averaged rain rates increases. We show that by changing the mixing length we can produce a lower resolution simulation that produces similar morphologies to a higher resolution simulation.

Aerosol impacts on drizzle properties in warm clouds from ARM Mobile Facility maritime and continental deployments

We have extensively evaluated the response of cloud-base drizzle rate (Rcb; mm day–1) in warm clouds to liquid water path (LWP; g m–2) and to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (NCCN; cm–3), an aerosol proxy. This evaluation is based on a 19-month long dataset of Doppler radar, lidar, microwave radiometers and aerosol observing systems from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility deployments at the Azores and in Germany. Assuming 0.55% supersaturation to calculate NCCN, we found a power law , indicating that Rcb decreases by a factor of 2–3 as NCCN increases from 200 to 1000 cm–3 for fixed LWP. Additionally, the precipitation susceptibility to NCCN ranges between 0.5 and 0.9, in agreement with values from simulations and aircraft measurements. Surprisingly, the susceptibility of the probability of precipitation from our analysis is much higher than that from CloudSat estimates, but agrees well with simulations from a multi-scale high-resolution aerosol-climate model. Although scale issues are not completely resolved in the intercomparisons, our results are encouraging, suggesting that it is possible for multi-scale models to accurately simulate the response of LWP to aerosol perturbations.

The three-dimensional morphology of simulated and observed convective storms over southern England

A set of high-resolution radar observations of convective storms has been collected to evaluate such storms in the UK Met Office Unified Model during the DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms). The 3-GHz Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar was set up with a scan-scheduling algorithm to automatically track convective storms identified in real-time from the operational rainfall radar network. More than 1,000 storm observations gathered over fifteen days in 2011 and 2012 are used to evaluate the model under various synoptic conditions supporting convection. In terms of the detailed three-dimensional morphology, storms in the 1500-m grid-length simulations are shown to produce horizontal structures a factor 1.5–2 wider compared to radar observations. A set of nested model runs at grid lengths down to 100m show that the models converge in terms of storm width, but the storm structures in the simulations with the smallest grid lengths are too narrow and too intense compared to the radar observations. The modelled storms were surrounded by a region of drizzle without ice reflectivities above 0 dBZ aloft, which was related to the dominance of ice crystals and was improved by allowing only aggregates as an ice particle habit. Simulations with graupel outperformed the standard configuration for heavy-rain profiles, but the storm structures were a factor 2 too wide and the convective cores 2 km too deep.

Coalescence of particles by differential sedimentation

We consider a three dimensional system consisting of a large number of small spherical particles, distributed in a range of sizes and heights (with uniform distribution in the horizontal direction). Particles move vertically at a size-dependent terminal velocity. They are either allowed to merge whenever they cross or there is a size ratio criterion enforced to account for collision efficiency. Such a system may be described, in mean field approximation, by the Smoluchowski kinetic equation with a differential sedimentation kernel. We obtain self-similar steady-state and time-dependent solutions to the kinetic equation, using methods borrowed from weak turbulence theory. Analytical results are compared with direct numerical simulations (DNS) of moving and merging particles, and a good agreement is found.

Instantaneous gelation in Smoluchowski’s coagulation equation revisited

We study the solutions of the Smoluchowski coagulation equation with a regularization term which removes clusters from the system when their mass exceeds a specified cutoff size, M. We focus primarily on collision kernels which would exhibit an instantaneous gelation transition in the absence of any regularization. Numerical simulations demonstrate that for such kernels with monodisperse initial data, the regularized gelation time decreasesas M increases, consistent with the expectation that the gelation time is zero in the unregularized system. This decrease appears to be a logarithmically slow function of M, indicating that instantaneously gelling kernels may still be justifiable as physical models despite the fact that they are highly singular in the absence of a cutoff. We also study the case when a source of monomers is introduced in the regularized system. In this case a stationary state is reached. We present a complete analytic description of this regularized stationary state for the model kernel, K(m1,m2)=max{m1,m2}ν, which gels instantaneously when M→∞ if ν>1. The stationary cluster size distribution decays as a stretched exponential for small cluster sizes and crosses over to a power law decay with exponent ν for large cluster sizes. The total particle density in the stationary state slowly vanishes as [(ν−1)logM]−1/2 when M→∞. The approach to the stationary state is nontrivial: Oscillations about the stationary state emerge from the interplay between the monomer injection and the cutoff, M, which decay very slowly when M is large. A quantitative analysis of these oscillations is provided for the addition model which describes the situation in which clusters can only grow by absorbing monomers.

Oligonucleotide compound and method for treating nidovirus infections

A method and oligonucleotide compound for inhibiting replication of a nidovirus in virus-infected animal cells are disclosed. The compound (i) has a nuclease-resistant backbone, (ii) is capable of uptake by the infected cells, (iii) contains between 8-25 nucleotide bases, and (iv) has a sequence capable of disrupting base pairing between the transcriptional regulatory sequences in the 5′ leader region of the positive-strand viral genome and negative-strand 3′ subgenomic region. In practicing the method, infected cells are exposed to the compound in an amount effective to inhibit viral replication.

Antisense antiviral compound and method for treating arenavirus infection

The invention provides antisense antiviral compounds and methods of their use and production in inhibition of growth of viruses of the Arenaviridae family and in the treatment of a viral infection. The compounds are particularly useful in the treatment of Arenavirus infection in a mammal. The antisense antiviral compounds are substantially uncharged morpholino oligonucleotides have a sequence of 12-40 subunits, including at least 12 subunits having a targeting sequence that is complementary to a region associated with viral RNA sequences within a 19 nucleotide region of the 5′-terminal regions of the viral RNA, viral complementary RNA and/or mRNA identified by SEQ ID NO:1.

Getting the measure of derivational morphology in adult speech a corpus analysis using MorphoQuantics

This paper describes the methodology used to compile a corpus called MorphoQuantics that contains a comprehensive set of 17,943 complex word types extracted from the spoken component of the British National Corpus (BNC). The categorisation of these complex words was derived primarily from the classification of Prefixes, Suffixes and Combining Forms proposed by Stein (2007). The MorphoQuantics corpus has been made available on a website of the same name; it lists 554 word-initial and 281 word-final morphemes in English, their etymology and meaning, and records the type and token frequencies of all the associated complex words containing these morphemes from the spoken element of the BNC, together with their Part of Speech. The results show that, although the number of word-initial affixes is nearly double that of word-final affixes, the relative number of each observed in the BNC is very similar; however, word-final affixes are more productive in that, on average, the frequency with which they attach to different bases is three times that of word-initial affixes. Finally, this paper considers how linguists, psycholinguists and psychologists may use MorphoQuantics to support their empirical work in first and second language acquisition, and clinical and educational research.

Fractal geometry of aggregate snowflakes revealed by triple wavelength radar measurements

Radar reflectivity measurements from three different wavelengths are used to retrieve information about the shape of aggregate snowflakes in deep stratiform ice clouds. Dual-wavelength ratios are calculated for different shape models and compared to observations at 3, 35 and 94 GHz. It is demonstrated that many scattering models, including spherical and spheroidal models, do not adequately describe the aggregate snowflakes that are observed. The observations are consistent with fractal aggregate geometries generated by a physically-based aggregation model. It is demonstrated that the fractal dimension of large aggregates can be inferred directly from the radar data. Fractal dimensions close to 2 are retrieved, consistent with previous theoretical models and in-situ observations.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

Rapid changes in the redox conditions of the western Tethys Ocean during the early Aptian oceanic anoxic event

The early Aptian (125 to 121 Ma) records an episode of severe environmental change including a major perturbation of the carbon cycle, an oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a, 122.5 Ma), a platform drowning episode and a biocalcification crisis. We propose to trace changes in the oxygenation state of the ocean during the early Aptian anoxic event using the redox-sensitive trace-element (RSTE) distribution, phosphorus accumulation rates (PARs) and organic-matter characterization in three different basins of the western Tethys. The following sections have been investigated: Gorgo a Cerbara (central Italy) in the Umbria Marche basin, Glaise (SE France) in the Vocontian basin and Cassis/La Bédoule (SE France) located in the Provencal basin. In the Gorgo a Cerbara section, RSTE distributions show a low background level along the main part of the section, contrasted by different maxima in concentrations within the Selli level. In the Glaise section, the Goguel level displays a weak increase in RSTE contents coeval with moderate TOC values. At Cassis/La Bédoule, no significant RSTE enrichments have been observed in sediments equivalent to the Selli level. These differences in the records of the geochemical proxies of the Selli level or its equivalent indicate the deposition under different redox conditions, probably related to the paleogeography. Our data indicate the development of anoxic–euxinic conditions in the deeper part of the Tethys during OAE 1a, whereas in the shallower environments, conditions were less reducing. Moreover, at Gorgo a Cerbara, the Selli level is characterized by rapid changes in the intensity of reducing conditions in the water column. Ocean eutrophication seems to be a major factor in the development and the persistence of anoxia as suggested by the PAR evolution. Higher PAR values at the onset of OAE 1a suggest an increase in nutrient input, whereas the return to lower values through the first part of the OAE 1a interval may be related to the weakened capacity to retain P in the sedimentary reservoir due to bottom-water oxygen depletion. This general pattern is contrasted by the data of Gorgo a Cerbara, where the sediments deposited during the OAE 1a interval show P-enrichments (mainly authigenic P). This is associated with maxima in TOC values and Corg:Ptot ratios, suggesting that a part of the remobilized P was trapped in the sediments and as such prevented from returning to the water column.

Treatment of child anxiety in the context of maternal anxiety disorder: a randomised controlled trial and economic analysis

Background Cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. Objectives This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. Design Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive–behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive–behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother–child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). Setting A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. Participants Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. Interventions All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. Main outcome measures Primary clinical outcomes were the child’s primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost–utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. Results MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. Conclusions Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. Funding This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC–NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.

Late Barremian-Early Aptian palaeoenvironmental change: the Cassis-La Bedoule section (SE France)

The well-dated section of Cassis-La Bédoule in the South Provencal Basin (southern France) allows for a detailed reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental change during the latest Barremian and Early Aptian. For this study, phosphorus (P) and clay-mineral contents, stable-isotope ratios on carbonate (δ13Ccarb) and organic matter (δ13Corg), and redox-sensitive trace elements (RSTE: V, U, As, Co, and Mo) have been measured in this historical stratotype. The base of the section consists of rudist limestone, which is attributed to the Urgonian platform. The presence of low P and RSTE content, and content of up to 30% kaolinite indicate deposition under oligotrophic and oxic conditions, and the presence of warm, humid climatic conditions on the adjacent continent. The top of the Urgonian succession is marked by a hardground with encrusted brachiopods and bivalves, which is interpreted as a drowning surface. The section continues with a succession of limestone and marl containing the first occurrence of planktonic foraminifera. This interval includes several laminated, organic-rich layers recording RSTE enrichments and high Corg:Ptot ratios. The deposition of these organic-rich layers was associated with oxygen-depleted conditions and a large positive excursion in δ13Corg. During this interval, a negative peak in the δ13Ccarb record is observed, which dates as latest Barremian. This excursion is coeval with negative excursions elsewhere in Tethyan platform and basin settings and is explained by the increased input of light dissolved inorganic carbon by rivers and/or volcanic activity. In this interval, an increase in P content, owing to reworking of nearshore sediments during the transgression, is coupled with a decrease in kaolinite content, which tends to be deposited in more proximal areas. The overlying hemipelagic sediments of the Early Aptian Deshayesites oglanlensis and D. weissi zones indicate rather stable palaeoenvironmental conditions with low P content and stable δ13C records. A change towards marl-dominated beds occurs close to the end of the D. weissi zone. These beds display a long decrease in their δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, which lasted until the end of the Deshayesites deshayesi subzone (corresponding to C3 in Menegatti et al., 1998). This is followed by a positive shift during the Roloboceras hambrovi and Deshayesites grandis subzones, which corresponds in time to oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 1a interval. This positive shift is coeval with two increases in the P content. The marly interval equivalent to OAE 1a lacks organic-rich deposits and RSTE enrichments indicating that oxic conditions prevailed in this particular part of the Tethys ocean. The clay mineralogy is dominated by smectite, which is interpreted to reflect trapping of kaolinite on the surrounding platforms rather than indicating a drier climate.

Convective updraught evaluation in high-resolution NWP simulations using single-Doppler radar measurements

This study presents an evaluation of the size and strength of convective updraughts in high-resolution simulations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). Updraught velocities have been estimated from range–height indicator (RHI) Doppler velocity measurements using the Chilbolton advanced meteorological radar, as part of the Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) project. Based on mass continuity and the vertical integration of the observed radial convergence, vertical velocities tend to be underestimated for convective clouds due to the undetected cross-radial convergence. Velocity fields from the UM at a resolution corresponding to the radar observations are used to scale such estimates to mitigate the inherent biases. The analysis of more than 100 observed and simulated storms indicates that the horizontal scale of updraughts in simulations tend to decrease with grid length; the 200 m grid length agreed most closely with the observations. Typical updraught mass fluxes in the 500 m grid length simulations were up to an order of magnitude greater than observed, and greater still in the 1.5 km grid length simulations. The effect of increasing the mixing length in the sub-grid turbulence scheme depends on the grid length. For the 1.5 km simulations, updraughts were weakened though their horizontal scale remained largely unchanged. Progressively more so for the sub-kilometre grid lengths, updraughts were broadened and intensified; horizontal scale was now determined by the mixing length rather than the grid length. In general, simulated updraughts were found to weaken too quickly with height. The findings were supported by the analysis of the widths of reflectivity patterns in both the simulations and observations.