Home-ownership for future generations

This paper constructs a housing market model to analyse conditions for different generations of households in the UK. Previous policy work has suggested that baby-boomers have benefitted at the expense of younger generations. The model relies on a form of financial accelerator in which existing homeowners reinvest a proportion of the capital gains on moving home. The model is extended to look at homeownership probabilities. It also explains why an increasing share of mortgages has gone to existing owners, despite market liberalisation and securitisation. In addition, the model contributes to the explanation of volatility.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Where, when and why brain activation differs for bilinguals and monolinguals during picture naming and reading aloud

Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that when bilinguals named pictures or read words aloud, in their native or nonnative language, activation was higher relative to monolinguals in 5 left hemisphere regions: dorsal precentral gyrus, pars triangularis, pars opercularis, superior temporal gyrus, and planum temporale. We further demonstrate that these areas are sensitive to increasing demands on speech production in monolinguals. This suggests that the advantage of being bilingual comes at the expense of increased work in brain areas that support monolingual word processing. By comparing the effect of bilingualism across a range of tasks, we argue that activation is higher in bilinguals compared with monolinguals because word retrieval is more demanding; articulation of each word is less rehearsed; and speech output needs careful monitoring to avoid errors when competition for word selection occurs between, as well as within,language.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association: tracking using graphical models

When performing data fusion, one often measures where targets were and then wishes to deduce where targets currently are. There has been recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data. This research has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships among the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit. Results for a multi-sensor scenario involving out-of-sequence data association are used to illustrate the utility of this approach in a specific context.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association

In data fusion systems, one often encounters measurements of past target locations and then wishes to deduce where the targets are currently located. Recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships between the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit.

On the distortion of turbulence by a progressive surface wave

A rapid-distortion model is developed to investigate the interaction of weak turbulence with a monochromatic irrotational surface water wave. The model is applicable when the orbital velocity of the wave is larger than the turbulence intensity, and when the slope of the wave is sufficiently high that the straining of the turbulence by the wave dominates over the straining of the turbulence by itself. The turbulence suffers two distortions. Firstly, vorticity in the turbulence is modulated by the wave orbital motions, which leads to the streamwise Reynolds stress attaining maxima at the wave crests and minima at the wave troughs; the Reynolds stress normal to the free surface develops minima at the wave crests and maxima at the troughs. Secondly, over several wave cycles the Stokes drift associated with the wave tilts vertical vorticity into the horizontal direction, subsequently stretching it into elongated streamwise vortices, which come to dominate the flow. These results are shown to be strikingly different from turbulence distorted by a mean shear flow, when `streaky structures' of high and low streamwise velocity fluctuations develop. It is shown that, in the case of distortion by a mean shear flow, the tendency for the mean shear to produce streamwise vortices by distortion of the turbulent vorticity is largely cancelled by a distortion of the mean vorticity by the turbulent fluctuations. This latter process is absent in distortion by Stokes drift, since there is then no mean vorticity. The components of the Reynolds stress and the integral length scales computed from turbulence distorted by Stokes drift show the same behaviour as in the simulations of Langmuir turbulence reported by McWilliams, Sullivan & Moeng (1997). Hence we suggest that turbulent vorticity in the upper ocean, such as produced by breaking waves, may help to provide the initial seeds for Langmuir circulations, thereby complementing the shear-flow instability mechanism developed by Craik & Leibovich (1976). The tilting of the vertical vorticity into the horizontal by the Stokes drift tends also to produce a shear stress that does work against the mean straining associated with the wave orbital motions. The turbulent kinetic energy then increases at the expense of energy in the wave. Hence the wave decays. An expression for the wave attenuation rate is obtained by scaling the equation for the wave energy, and is found to be broadly consistent with available laboratory data.

A mixture of trans-galactooligosaccharides reduces markers of metabolic syndrome and modulates the fecal microbiota and immune function of overweight adults

Metabolic syndrome is a set of disorders that increases the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. The gut microbiota is altered toward a less beneficial composition in overweight adults and this change can be accompanied by inflammation. Prebiotics such as galactooligosaccharides can positively modify the gut microbiota and immune system; some may also reduce blood lipids. We assessed the effect of a galactooligosaccharide mixture [Bi2 muno (B-GOS)] on markers of metabolic syndrome, gut microbiota, and immune function in 45 overweight adults with $3 risk factors associated with metabolic syndrome in a double-blind, randomized, placebo (maltodextrin)-controlled, crossover study (with a 4-wk wash-out period between interventions). Whole blood, saliva, feces, and anthropometric measurements were taken at the beginning, wk 6, and end of each 12-wk intervention period. Predominant groups of fecal bacteria were quantified and full blood count, markers of inflammation and lipid metabolism, insulin, and glucose were measured. B-GOS increased the number of fecal bifidobacteria at the expense of less desirable groups of bacteria. Increases in fecal secretory IgA and decreases in fecal calprotectin, plasma C-reactive protein, insulin, total cholesterol (TC), TG, and the TC:HDL cholesterol ratio were also observed. Administration of B-GOS to overweight adults resulted in positive effects on the composition of the gut microbiota, the immune response, and insulin, TC, and TG concentrations. B-GOSmay be a useful candidate for the enhancement of gastrointestinal health, immune function, and the reduction of metabolic syndrome risk factors in overweight adults.

Comparison of polar ozone loss rates simulated by one-dimensional and three-dimensional models with Match observations in recent Antarctic and Arctic winters

Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

Selecting valuable information to remember: age-related differences and similarities in self-regulated learning

It is often necessary to selectively attend to important information, at the expense of less important information, especially if you know you cannot remember large amounts of information. The present study examined how younger and older adults select valuable information to study, when given unrestricted choices about how to allocate study time. Participants were shown a display of point values ranging from 1–30. Participants could choose which values to study, and the associated word was then shown. Study time, and the choice to restudy words, was under the participant's control during the 2-minute study session. Overall, both age groups selected high value words to study and studied these more than the lower value words. However, older adults allocated a disproportionately greater amount of study time to the higher-value words, and age-differences in recall were reduced or eliminated for the highest value words. In addition, older adults capitalized on recency effects in a strategic manner, by studying high-value items often but also immediately before the test. A multilevel mediation analysis indicated that participants strategically remembered items with higher point value, and older adults showed similar or even stronger strategic process that may help to compensate for poorer memory. These results demonstrate efficient (and different) metacognitive control operations in younger and older adults, which can allow for strategic regulation of study choices and allocation of study time when remembering important information. The findings are interpreted in terms of life span models of agenda-based regulation and discussed in terms of practical applications. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)(journal abstract)

Biased oviposition and biased survival together help resolve a fig-wasp conflict

We report evidence that helps resolve two competing explanations for stability in the mutualism between Ficus racemosa fig trees and the Ceratosolen fusciceps wasps that pollinate them. The wasps lay eggs in the tree's ovules, with each wasp larva developing at the expense of a fig seed. Upon maturity, the female wasps collect pollen and disperse to a new tree, continuing the cycle. Fig fitness is increased by producing both seeds and female wasps, whereas short-term wasp fitness increases only with more wasps, thereby resulting in a conflict of interests. We show experimentally that wasps exploit the inner layers of ovules first (the biased oviposition explanation), which is consistent with optimal-foraging theory. As oviposition increases, seeds in the middle layer are replaced on a one-to-one basis by pollinator offspring, which is also consistent with biased oviposition. Finally, in the outer layer of ovules, seeds disappear but are only partially replaced by pollinator offspring, which suggests high wasp mortality (the biased survival or ‘unbeatable seeds’ explanation). Our results therefore suggest that both biased oviposition and biased survival ensure seed production, thereby stabilizing the mutualism. We further argue that biased oviposition can maintain biased survival by selecting against wasp traits to overcome fig defenses. Finally, we report evidence suggesting that F. racemosa balances seed and wasp production at the level of the tree. Because figs are probably selected to allocate equally to male and female function, a 1:1 seed:wasp ratio suggests that fig trees are in control of the mutualism.

Optimal planning of cocoa clonal selection programmes

Data from three cocoa (Theobroma cacao) clonal selection trials are used to investigate the genetic and environmental components of variation in yield and the percentage of total pods affected by black pod disease (Phytophtora pod rot). Simulations based on these estimated components of variation are then used to discuss the best choice in future of numbers of clones, replicates and years of harvest to maximise selection advances in the traits measured. The three main conclusions are the need to increase the number of clones at the expense of the number of replicates of each clone, the diminishing returns from additional years of harvesting and the importance of widening the genetic base of the clones chosen to be tested.

Importance of initial state and atmospheric conditions for urban land surface models' performance

Urban land surface models (LSM) are commonly evaluated for short periods (a few weeks to months) because of limited observational data. This makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of initial conditions on model performance or to consider the response of a model to a range of possible atmospheric conditions. Drawing on results from the first urban LSM comparison, these two issues are considered. Assessment shows that the initial soil moisture has a substantial impact on the performance. Models initialised with soils that are too dry are not able to adjust their surface sensible and latent heat fluxes to realistic values until there is sufficient rainfall. Models initialised with too wet soils are not able to restrict their evaporation appropriately for periods in excess of a year. This has implications for short term evaluation studies and implies the need for soil moisture measurements to improve data assimilation and model initialisation. In contrast, initial conditions influencing the thermal storage have a much shorter adjustment timescale compared to soil moisture. Most models partition too much of the radiative energy at the surface into the sensible heat flux at the probable expense of the net storage heat flux.

Global snow mass measurements and the effect of stratigraphic detail on inversion of microwave brightness temperatures

Snow provides large seasonal storage of freshwater, and information about the distribution of snow mass as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is important for hydrological planning and detecting climate change impacts. Large regional disagreements remain between estimates from reanalyses, remote sensing and modelling. Assimilating passive microwave information improves SWE estimates in many regions but the assimilation must account for how microwave scattering depends on snow stratigraphy. Physical snow models can estimate snow stratigraphy, but users must consider the computational expense of model complexity versus acceptable errors. Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Experiment (NASA CLPX) and the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) microwave emission model of layered snowpacks, it is shown that simulations of the brightness temperature difference between 19 GHz and 37 GHz vertically polarised microwaves are consistent with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals once known stratigraphic information is used. Simulated brightness temperature differences for an individual snow profile depend on the provided stratigraphic detail. Relative to a profile defined at the 10 cm resolution of density and temperature measurements, the error introduced by simplification to a single layer of average properties increases approximately linearly with snow mass. If this brightness temperature error is converted into SWE using a traditional retrieval method then it is equivalent to ±13 mm SWE (7% of total) at a depth of 100 cm. This error is reduced to ±5.6 mm SWE (3 % of total) for a two-layer model.

Anthropogenic natal environmental effects on life histories in a wild bird population

Recent work suggests that the environment experienced in early life can alter life histories in wild populations [1, 2, 3, 4 and 5], but our understanding of the processes involved remains limited [6 and 7]. Since anthropogenic environmental change is currently having a major impact on wild populations [8], this raises the possibility that life histories may be influenced by human activities that alter environmental conditions in early life. Whether this is the case and the processes involved remain unexplored in wild populations. Using 23 years of longitudinal data on the Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus), a tropical forest specialist, we found that females born in territories affected by anthropogenic habitat change shifted investment in reproduction to earlier in life at the expense of late life performance. They also had lower survival rates as young adults. This shift in life history strategy appears to be adaptive, because fitness was comparable to that of other females experiencing less anthropogenic modification in their natal environment. Our results suggest that human activities can leave a legacy on wild birds through natal environmental effects. Whether these legacies have a detrimental effect on populations will depend on life history responses and the extent to which these reduce individual fitness.

Managing governance, risk and compliance for post-crisis regulatory change: a model of IS capabilities for financial organizations

The 2008-2009 financial crisis and related organizational and economic failures have meant that financial organizations are faced with a ‘tsunami’ of new regulatory obligations. This environment provides new managerial challenges as organizations are forced to engage in complex and costly remediation projects with short deadlines. Drawing from a longitudinal study conducted with nine financial institutions over twelve years, this paper identifies nine IS capabilities which underpin activities for managing regulatory themed governance, risk and compliance efforts. The research shows that many firms are now focused on meeting the Regulators’ deadlines at the expense of developing a strategic, enterprise-wide connected approach to compliance. Consequently, executives are in danger of implementing siloed compliance solutions within business functions. By evaluating the maturity of their IS capabilities which underpin regulatory adherence, managers have an opportunity to develop robust operational architectures and so are better positioned to face the challenges derived from shifting regulatory landscapes.