Identifying and quantifying nonconservative energy production/destruction terms in hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation models

This paper seeks to illustrate the point that physical inconsistencies between thermodynamics and dynamics usually introduce nonconservative production/destruction terms in the local total energy balance equation in numerical ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Such terms potentially give rise to undesirable forces and/or diabatic terms in the momentum and thermodynamic equations, respectively, which could explain some of the observed errors in simulated ocean currents and water masses. In this paper, a theoretical framework is developed to provide a practical method to determine such nonconservative terms, which is illustrated in the context of a relatively simple form of the hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation used in early versions of OGCMs, for which at least four main potential sources of energy nonconservation are identified; they arise from: (1) the “hanging” kinetic energy dissipation term; (2) assuming potential or conservative temperature to be a conservative quantity; (3) the interaction of the Boussinesq approximation with the parameterizations of turbulent mixing of temperature and salinity; (4) some adiabatic compressibility effects due to the Boussinesq approximation. In practice, OGCMs also possess spurious numerical energy sources and sinks, but they are not explicitly addressed here. Apart from (1), the identified nonconservative energy sources/sinks are not sign definite, allowing for possible widespread cancellation when integrated globally. Locally, however, these terms may be of the same order of magnitude as actual energy conversion terms thought to occur in the oceans. Although the actual impact of these nonconservative energy terms on the overall accuracy and physical realism of the oceans is difficult to ascertain, an important issue is whether they could impact on transient simulations, and on the transition toward different circulation regimes associated with a significant reorganization of the different energy reservoirs. Some possible solutions for improvement are examined. It is thus found that the term (2) can be substantially reduced by at least one order of magnitude by using conservative temperature instead of potential temperature. Using the anelastic approximation, however, which was initially thought as a possible way to greatly improve the accuracy of the energy budget, would only marginally reduce the term (4) with no impact on the terms (1), (2) and (3).

The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: a case study over the UK

Over recent years there has been an increasing deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, particularly large-scale wind farms. As wind farm deployment increases, it is vital to gain a good understanding of how the energy produced is affected by climate variations, over a wide range of time-scales, from short (hours to weeks) to long (months to decades) periods. By relating wind speed at specific sites in the UK to a large-scale climate pattern (the North Atlantic Oscillation or "NAO"), the power generated by a modelled wind turbine under three different NAO states is calculated. It was found that the wind conditions under these NAO states may yield a difference in the mean wind power output of up to 10%. A simple model is used to demonstrate that forecasts of future NAO states can potentially be used to improve month-ahead statistical forecasts of monthly-mean wind power generation. The results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on the hourly-, daily- and monthly-mean power output distributions from the turbine with important implications for (a) the use of meteorological data (e.g. their relationship to large scale climate patterns) in wind farm site assessment and, (b) the utilisation of seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts to estimate future wind farm power output. This suggests that further research into the links between large-scale climate variability and wind power generation is both necessary and valuable.

Urban microclimate and renewable energy use in cities

This paper presents an experimental measurement campaign of urban microclimate for a building complex located in London, the United Kingdom. The experiment was carried out between 19 July and 16 August, 2010 at the Elephant & Castle site. The wind and solar energy distributions within the London urban experimental site were assessed in detail for their potential use in areas of high-rise urban building complexes. The climatic variables were measured at every five minutes for the air temperature, the wind speed and direction, the air humidity and the global solar radiation for a period of four weeks. The surface temperatures were also measured on the asphalt road, pavement and building walls at every hour for the first week of the campaign period. The effect of the building complex on the urban microclimate has been analyzed in terms of the solar radiation, the air temperature and velocity. The information and observation obtained from this campaign will be useful to the analysis of renewable energy implementations in dense urban situations.

Renewable energy in the UK countryside: policy and practice

Of the technologies currently available for producing energy from renewable sources in the British climate all except one depend on a single ingredient, namely land. Therefore other than offshore wind generation, which has been slow and expensive to establish, renewables have had to be derived almost entirely from the land, whether as sites for turbines or areas on which to grow feedstocks for biomass and biofuels. Of these, only wind turbines have been developed in any number while economic conditions have until now been unfavourable for biomass and biofuel. The UK is unlikely to meet its present targets under the Kyoto agreement, due to a mixture of limited funding and problems of policy. Peter Prag examines the present position and the potential outlook.

Identification of potential mechanisms of toxicity after di-(2-ethylhexyl)-phthalate (DEHP) adult exposure in the liver using a systems biology approach

Phthalates are industrial additives widely used as plasticizers. In addition to deleterious effects on male genital development, population studies have documented correlations between phthalates exposure and impacts on reproductive tract development and on the metabolic syndrome in male adults. In this work we investigated potential mechanisms underlying the impact of DEHP on adult mouse liver in vivo. A parallel analysis of hepatic transcript and metabolic profiles from adult mice exposed to varying DEHP doses was performed. Hepatic genes modulated by DEHP are predominantly PPARalpha targets. However, the induction of prototypic cytochrome P450 genes strongly supports the activation of additional NR pathways, including Constitutive Androstane Receptor (CAR). Integration of transcriptomic and metabonomic profiles revealed a correlation between the impacts of DEHP on genes and metabolites related to heme synthesis and to the Rev-erbalpha pathway that senses endogenous heme level. We further confirmed the combined impact of DEHP on the hepatic expression of Alas1, a critical enzyme in heme synthesis and on the expression of Rev-erbalpha target genes involved in the cellular clock and in energy metabolism. This work shows that DEHP interferes with hepatic CAR and Rev-erbalpha pathways which are both involved in the control of metabolism. The identification of these new hepatic pathways targeted by DEHP could contribute to metabolic and endocrine disruption associated with phthalate exposure. Gene expression profiles performed on microdissected testis territories displayed a differential responsiveness to DEHP. Altogether, this suggests that impacts of DEHP on adult organs, including testis, could be documented and deserve further investigations.

A data framework for measuring the energy consumption of the non-domestic building stock

The transition to a low-carbon economy urgently demands better information on the drivers of energy consumption. UK government policy has prioritized energy efficiency in the built stock as a means of carbon reduction, but the sector is historically information poor, particularly the non-domestic building stock. This paper presents the results of a pilot study that investigated whether and how property and energy consumption data might be combined for non-domestic energy analysis. These data were combined in a ‘Non-Domestic Energy Efficiency Database’ to describe the location and physical attributes of each property and its energy consumption. The aim was to support the generation of a range of energy-efficiency statistics for the industrial, commercial and institutional sectors of the non-domestic building stock, and to provide robust evidence for national energy-efficiency and carbon-reduction policy development and monitoring. The work has brought together non-domestic energy data, property data and mapping in a ‘data framework’ for the first time. The results show what is possible when these data are integrated and the associated difficulties. A data framework offers the potential to inform energy-efficiency policy formation and to support its monitoring at a level of detail not previously possible.

Methodology To model the energy and greenhouse gas emissions of electronic software distributions

A new electronic software distribution (ESD) life cycle analysis (LCA)methodology and model structure were constructed to calculate energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to counteract the use of high level, top-down modeling efforts, and to increase result accuracy, a focus upon device details and data routes was taken. In order to compare ESD to a relevant physical distribution alternative,physical model boundaries and variables were described. The methodology was compiled from the analysis and operational data of a major online store which provides ESD and physical distribution options. The ESD method included the calculation of power consumption of data center server and networking devices. An in-depth method to calculate server efficiency and utilization was also included to account for virtualization and server efficiency features. Internet transfer power consumption was analyzed taking into account the number of data hops and networking devices used. The power consumed by online browsing and downloading was also factored into the model. The embedded CO2e of server and networking devices was proportioned to each ESD process. Three U.K.-based ESD scenarios were analyzed using the model which revealed potential CO2e savings of 83% when ESD was used over physical distribution. Results also highlighted the importance of server efficiency and utilization methods.

An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

Lighting energy saving due to the use of direct sunlight

This paper describe a simulation program, which uses Trengenza’s average room illuminance method in conjunction with hourly solar irradiance and luminous efficacy, to predict the potential lighting energy saving for a side-lit room. Two lighting control algorithms of photoelectric switching (on/off) and photoelectric dimming (top-up) have been coded in the program. A simulation for a typical UK office room has been conducted and the results show that energy saving due to the sunlight dependent on the various factors such as orientation, control methods, building depth, glazing area and shading types, etc. This simple tool can be used for estimating the potential lighting energy saving of the windows with various shading devices at the early design stage.

Facing the future: energy performance certificates and commercial property

Purpose – The paper aims to present the findings of a “situation review” of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), focusing on energy performance certificates (EPCs) to highlight areas of specific importance for the UK property investment community. The paper is based on research commissioned by the Investment Property Forum (IPF) and funded through the IPF Research Programme (2006-2009). Design/methodology/approach – Interviews were undertaken with experts from the fields of property investment and building engineering. The interviews were undertaken with to identify: the current knowledge of EPCs in the property investment sector; key issues with practical implementation of the legislation; and perceptions of the potential impacts of legislation, particularly in relation to value stakeholder and behaviour. Findings – The paper finds that, although the regulations have been published, there is still a need for clarification in the marketplace with regard to some of the detail of regulations and the certification process. The following areas are of most concern to property investors: costs of surveys; potential difficulties with the process; and a shortage of assessors. With respect to these impacts it is becoming clear that investors who have not yet started considering the EPBD and its requirements within their strategy are likely to face difficulties in the short term. The most significant value-related impacts of EPBD are expected to be value differentiation of properties and “price chipping” against the rental or capital value of the property, where an occupier or potential purchaser will use the recommendations contained within an EPC to force a reduction in value. The latter is expected to emerge in the short term, whereas the former is expected to be realised over the medium to long term. Both these impacts have potentially significant implications for property investment holdings and also future investment behaviour.

The potential for community groups to promote sustainable living

In recent times there has been a growing recognition amongst policy-makers of the role for community-based action in contributing to the broader aims of energy policy and climate change. In this paper, we will examine the potential for existing community groups to use their influence and elements of internal cohesion to encourage more widespread understanding and adoption of sustainable lifestyle habits; both amongst their members and within the broader communities of which they are a part. Findings are presented from recent empirical work with a range of well-established community groups for whom environmental issues are not their main priority. A central aspect of the research was to explore both the current status and potential role of groups that may have the capacity to reach and influence a broader sphere of the public than energy/environment specific initiatives of recent times have been able to achieve. Representing a diversity of interests, age groups and functionality, the results suggest that the potential for more effective ‘bottom-up’ engagement on climate change and sustainable living might be given fresh impetus by these types of established community groups and their networks. An assessment of what motivates participation and membership in the groups highlights a series of factors common to all groups and a smaller number that are significant for particular groups individually. It is argued that an appreciation of motivating factors can be useful in understanding more clearly how such groups are able to survive and maintain cohesion over time. The findings also suggest that climate change action means different things for different groups, with the diversity of the groups bringing with it the challenge of making sustainable living relevant to a range of interests and different shared values.

A probabilistic analysis of the future potential of evaporative cooling systems in a temperate climate

The probabilistic projections of climate change for the United Kingdom (UK Climate Impacts Programme) show a trend towards hotter and drier summers. This suggests an expected increase in cooling demand for buildings – a conflicting requirement to reducing building energy needs and related CO2 emissions. Though passive design is used to reduce thermal loads of a building, a supplementary cooling system is often necessary. For such mixed-mode strategies, indirect evaporative cooling is investigated as a low energy option in the context of a warmer and drier UK climate. Analysis of the climate projections shows an increase in wet-bulb depression; providing a good indication of the cooling potential of an evaporative cooler. Modelling a mixed-mode building at two different locations, showed such a building was capable of maintaining adequate thermal comfort in future probable climates. Comparing the control climate to the scenario climate, an increase in the median of evaporative cooling load is evident. The shift is greater for London than for Glasgow with a respective 71.6% and 3.3% increase in the median annual cooling load. The study shows evaporative cooling should continue to function as an effective low-energy cooling technique in future, warming climates.

Simulation of the future performance of low-energy evaporative cooling systems using UKCP09 climate projections

Recent activity in the development of future weather data for building performance simulation follows recognition of the limitations of traditional methods, which have been based on a stationary (observed) climate. In the UK, such developments have followed on from the availability of regional climate models as delivered in UKCIP02 and recently the probabilistic projections released under UKCP09. One major area of concern is the future performance and adaptability of buildings which employ exclusively passive or low-energy cooling systems. One such method which can be employed in an integral or retrofit situation is direct or indirect evaporative cooling. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling is most strongly influenced by the wet-bulb depression of the ambient air, hence is generally regarded as most suited to hot, dry climates. However, this technology has been shown to be effective in the UK, primarily in mixed-mode buildings or as a retrofit to industrial/commercial applications. Climate projections for the UK generally indicate an increase in the summer wet-bulb depression, suggesting an enhanced potential for the application of evaporative cooling. The paper illustrates this potential by an analysis of the probabilistic scenarios released under UKCP09, together with a detailed building/plant simulation of case study building located in the South-East of England. The results indicate a high probability that evaporative cooling will still be a viable low-energy technique in the 2050s.

UK innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies: drivers, barriers and systems failures

A better understanding of the systemic processes by which innovation occurs is useful, both conceptually and to inform policymaking in support of innovation in more sustainable technologies. This paper analyses current innovation systems in the UK for a range of new and renewable energy technologies, and generates policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of these innovation systems. Although incentives are in place in the UK to encourage innovation in these technologies, system failures—or ‘gaps’—are identified in moving technologies along the innovation chain, preventing their successful commercialisation. Sustained investment will be needed for these technologies to achieve their potential. It is argued that a stable and consistent policy framework is required to help create the conditions for this. In particular, such a framework should be aimed at improving risk/reward ratios for demonstration and pre-commercial stage technologies. This would enhance positive expectations, stimulate learning effects leading to cost reductions, and increase the likelihood of successful commercialisation.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate

This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.