The small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap.

Impacts of pollution and climate change on ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in the UK: analysis of uncertainties in two empirical niche models

A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.

Energy generation and consumption in Ghana

Electricity consumption in Ghana is estimated to be increasing by 10% per annum due to the demand from the growing population. However, current sources of production (hydro and thermal facilities) generate only 66% of the current demand. Considering current trends, it is difficult to substantiate these basic facts, because of the lack of information. As a result, research into the existing sources of generating electricity, electricity consumption and prospective projects has been performed. This was achieved using three key techniques; review of literature, empirical studies and modelling. The results presented suggest that, current annual installed capacity of energy generation (i.e. 1960 MW) must be increased to 9,405.59 MW, assuming 85% plant availability. This is then capable to coop with the growing demand and it would give access to the entire population as well as support commercial and industrial activities for the growth of the economy. The prospect of performing this research is with the expectation to present an academic research agenda for further exploration into the subject area, without which the growth of the country would be stagnant.