A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

Effects of fermentation products of pro- and prebiotics on trans-epithelial electrical resistance in an in vitro model of the colon

Evidence from in vivo and in vitro studies suggests that the consumption of pro- and prebiotics may inhibit colon carcinogenesis; however, the mechanisms involved have, thus far, proved elusive. There are some indications from animal studies that the effects are being exerted during the promotion stage of carcinogenesis. One feature of the promotion stage of colorectal cancer is the disruption of tight junctions, leading to a loss of integrity across the intestinal barrier. We have used the Caco-2 human adenocarcinoma cell line as a model for the intestinal epithelia. Trans-epithelial electrical resistance measurements indicate Caco-2 monolayer integrity, and we recorded changes to this integrity following exposure to the fermentation products of selected probiotics and prebiotics, in the form of nondigestible oligosaccharides (NDOs). Our results indicate that NDOs themselves exert varying, but generally minor, effects upon the strength of the tight junctions, whereas the fermentation products of probiotics and NDOs tend to raise tight junction integrity above that of the controls. This effect was bacterial species and oligosaccharide specific. Bifidobacterium Bb 12 was particularly effective, as were the fermentation products of Raftiline and Raftilose. We further investigated the ability of Raftilose fermentations to protect against the negative effects of deoxycholic acid (DCA) upon tight junction integrity. We found protection to be species dependent and dependent upon the presence of the fermentation products in the media at the same time as or after exposure to the DCA. Results suggest that the Raftilose fermentation products may prevent disruption of the intestinal epithelial barrier function during damage by tumor promoters.

The impact of price promotions on producer strategies in markets with large product heterogeneity

Although current research indicates that increasing the number of options has negative effects on the cognitive ability of consumers, little understanding has been given to the consequences on producers and their strategic behavior. This article tests whether a large portfolio of products is beneficial to producers by observing UK consumer response to price promotions. The article shows that discounts induce mainly segment switching (74% of the total impact), with a limited effect on stockpiling (26%) and no impact on purchase incidence. Consequently, consumers prefer to “follow the discount” rather than purchase multiple units of the same wine. This result seems to explain the current structure of the market, and suggests that discounts may conflict with segment loyalty, a situation that disfavors producers, particularly in very populated segments. Results also casts doubts on the economic sustainability of competition based on an intense product differentiation in the wine sector.

Sequence heterogeneity of an mpb70 gene analogue in Mycobacterium kansasii

The protein antigen MPB70 is a major component of culture supernatants of Mycobacterium bovis and Is an active ingredient of bovine PPD used for skin-testing cattle for tuberculosis. we have shown that Mycobacterium kansasii possesses a similar gene that cross-reacts in a PCR test for M. bovis. Single strand conformational polymorphism analysis, and the DNA sequence of the PCR product, shows differences between M. kansasii strains, supporting the suggestion that M. kansasii is not a homogeneous species.

Electrical signature in polar night cloud base variations

Layer clouds are globally extensive. Their lower edges are charged negatively by the fair weather atmospheric electricity current flowing vertically through them. Using polar winter surface meteorological data from Sodankyla ̈ (Finland) and Halley (Antarctica), we find that when meteorological diurnal variations are weak, an appreciable diurnal cycle, on average, persists in the cloud base heights, detected using a laser ceilometer. The diurnal cloud base heights from both sites correlate more closely with the Carnegie curve of global atmospheric electricity than with local meteorological measurements. The cloud base sensitivities are indistinguishable between the northern and southern hemispheres, averaging a (4.0 ± 0.5) m rise for a 1% change in the fair weather electric current density. This suggests that the global fair weather current, which is affected by space weather, cosmic rays and the El Nin ̃o Southern Oscillation, is linked with layer cloud properties.

Electrical stimulation for trunk control in paraplegia:A feasibility study

Paraplegic subjects lack trunk stability due to the loss of voluntary muscle control.This leads to a restriction of the volume of bi-manual workspace available,and hence has a detrimental impact on activities of daily living. Electrical Stimulation of paralysed muscles can be used to stabilize the trunk, but has never been applied in closed loop for this purpose. This paper describes the development of two closed loop controllers(PID and LQR),and their experimental evaluation on a human subject. Advantages and disadvantages of the two are discussed,considering a potential use of this technology during daily activities.

A mesoscopic modelling approach to anaesthetic action on brain electrical activity

Relating the measurable, large scale, effects of anaesthetic agents to their molecular and cellular targets of action is necessary to better understand the principles by which they affect behavior, as well as enabling the design and evaluation of more effective agents and the better clinical monitoring of existing and future drugs. Volatile and intravenous general anaesthetic agents (GAs) are now known to exert their effects on a variety of protein targets, the most important of which seem to be the neuronal ion channels. It is hence unlikely that anaesthetic effect is the result of a unitary mechanism at the single cell level. However, by altering the behavior of ion channels GAs are believed to change the overall dynamics of distributed networks of neurons. This disruption of regular network activity can be hypothesized to cause the hypnotic and analgesic effects of GAs and may well present more stereotypical characteristics than its underlying microscopic causes. Nevertheless, there have been surprisingly few theories that have attempted to integrate, in a quantitative manner, the empirically well documented alterations in neuronal ion channel behavior with the corresponding macroscopic effects. Here we outline one such approach, and show that a range of well documented effects of anaesthetics on the electroencephalogram (EEG) may be putatively accounted for. In particular we parameterize, on the basis of detailed empirical data, the effects of halogenated volatile ethers (a clinically widely used class of general anaesthetic agent). The resulting model is able to provisionally account for a range of anaesthetically induced EEG phenomena that include EEG slowing, biphasic changes in EEG power, and the dose dependent appearance of anomalous ictal activity, as well as providing a basis for novel approaches to monitoring brain function in both health and disease.

Generic strategies and performance: evidence from manufacturing firms

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between business-level strategy and organisational performance and to test the applicability of Porter's generic strategies in explaining differences in the performance of organisations. Design/methodology/approach – The study was focussed on manufacturing firms in the UK belonging to the electrical and mechanical engineering sectors. Data were collected through a postal survey using the survey instrument from 124 organisations and the respondents were all at CEO level. Both objective and subjective measures were used to assess performance. Non-response bias was assessed statistically and it was not found to be a major problem affecting this study. Appropriate measures were taken to ensure that common method variance (CMV) does not affect the results of this study. Statistical tests indicated that CMV problem does not affect the results of this study. Findings – The results of this study indicate that firms adopting one of the strategies, namely cost-leadership or differentiation, perform better than “stuck-in-the-middle” firms which do not have a dominant strategic orientation. The integrated strategy group has lower performance compared with cost-leaders and differentiators in terms of financial performance measures. This provides support for Porter's view that combination strategies are unlikely to be effective in organisations. However, the cost-leadership and differentiation strategies were not strongly correlated with the financial performance measures indicating the limitations of Porter's generic strategies in explaining performance heterogeneity in organisations. Originality/value – This study makes an important contribution to the literature by identifying some of the gaps in the literature through a systematic literature review and addressing those gaps.

A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.

Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p-value = 0.015). Regarding the five hypotheses, our data showed (a) some difference between GP and HP studies (p-value = 0.012) and (b) an association in extreme comparisons (BMI> or =32.5, 35.0, 37.5, 40.0 kg/m(2) versus BMI<25 kg/m(2)) yielding ORs of 1.16, 1.18, 1.22, or 1.27 (p-values 0.001 to 0.003), which was also underscored by significantly increased CC-genotype frequencies across BMI categories (10.4% to 12.5%, p-value for trend = 0.0002). We did not find evidence for differential ORs (c) among studies with higher than average obesity prevalence compared to lower, (d) among studies with BMI assessment after the year 2000 compared to those before, or (e) among studies from older populations compared to younger. Analysis of non-Caucasian adults (n = 4889) or children (n = 3243) yielded ORs of 1.01 (p-value = 0.94) or 1.15 (p-value = 0.22), respectively. There was no evidence for overall association of the rs7566605 polymorphism with obesity. Our data suggested an association with extreme degrees of obesity, and consequently heterogeneous effects from different study designs may mask an underlying association when unaccounted for. The importance of study design might be under-recognized in gene discovery and association replication so far.

Role of genetic polymorphism peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 Pro12Ala on ethnic susceptibility to diabetes in South-Asian and Caucasian subjects: Evidence for heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma Pro12ala polymorphism modulates susceptibility to diabetes in South Asians. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: South Asians (n = 697) and Caucasians (n = 457) living in Dallas/Forth Worth, Texas, and South Asians living in Chennai, India (n = 1,619), were enrolled for this study. PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala was determined using restriction fragment-length polymorphism. Insulin responsiveness to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was measured in nondiabetic subjects. RESULTS: The Caucasian diabetic subjects had significantly lower prevalence of PPAR-gamma 12Ala when compared with the Caucasian nondiabetic subjects (20 vs. 9%, P = 0.006). However, there were no significant differences between diabetic and nondiabetic subjects with reference to the Pro12Ala polymorphism among the South Asians living in Dallas (20 vs. 23%) and in India (19 vs. 19.3%). Although Caucasians carrying PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala had lower plasma insulin levels at 2 h of OGTT than the wild-type (Pro/Pro) carriers (76 +/- 68 and 54 +/- 33 microU/ml, respectively, P = 0.01), no differences in either fasting or 2-h plasma insulin concentrations were found between South Asians carrying the PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala polymorphism and those with the wild-type genotype at either Chennai or Dallas. CONCLUSIONS: Although further replication studies are necessary to test the validity of the described genotype-phenotype relationship, our study supports the hypothesis that the PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala polymorphism is protective against diabetes in Caucasians but not in South Asians.

Genetic heterogeneity in erythropoietic protoporphyria: a study of the enzymatic defect in nine affected families

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is associated with a deficiency of protohaem ferrolyase. We have used a novel assay for this enzyme based on its ability to utilize zinc as a substrate to investigate the inheritance of EPP in nine affected families. Zinc chelatase activity was markedly reduced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 14 EPP patients (mean, 3.3 nmol Zn protohaem/h/mg protein; range, 0.3-8.0) when compared with 41 controls (16.8 +/- 3.6) p less than 0.01. In three families with parent-to-child transmission of disease, the asymptomatic parent had an enzymatic activity within the normal range. In three pedigrees where the parents were asymptomatic, enzymatic activities were below the 95% confidence limits in both. Zinc chelatase activity was below the mean control value in 17 of the 18 parents in nine affected pedigrees, and six of seven asymptomatic offspring of patients with protoporphyria. The findings suggest that EPP is not transmitted as a simple dominant trait and that inheritance of more than one gene may be required for disease expression.