Can we explain the dynamics of the UK FTSE 100 stock and stock index futures markets?

If stock and stock index futures markets are functioning properly price movements in these markets should best be described by a first order vector error correction model with the error correction term being the price differential between the two markets (the basis). Recent evidence suggests that there are more dynamics present than should be in effectively functioning markets. Using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, this study analyses whether such dynamics can be related to different regimes within which the basis can fluctuate in a predictable manner without triggering arbitrage. These findings reveal that the basis shows strong evidence of autoregressive behaviour when its value is between the two thresholds but that the extra dynamics disappear once the basis moves above the upper threshold and their persistence is reduced, although not eradicated, once the basis moves below the lower threshold. This suggests that once nonlinearity associated with transactions costs is accounted for, stock and stock index futures markets function more effectively than is suggested by linear models of the pricing relationship.

Predicting the impact of the EU common agricultural policy reform in England: micro and macroeconomic aspects

In this article we investigate the effects of the European CAP reform on a selection of arable crops in England, both at a regional and national level. The results show that the CAP reform will push farmers to adjust to the new market conditions, which will cause a further restructuring of the English agricultural business sector. Our results show that, under the new market conditions, economically-small farms will increase their output by allocating more land to cereals, whereas economically-large farms will need to decrease land allocated to cereals to reduce production costs and achieve better returns.

An evaluation of the UK Food Standards Agency's salt campaign

Excessive salt intake is linked to cardiovascular disease and several other health problems around the world. The UK Food Standards Agency initiated a campaign at the end of 2004 to reduce salt intake in the population. There is disagreement over whether the campaign was effective in curbing salt intake or not. We provide fresh evidence on the impact of the campaign, by using data on spot urinary sodium readings and socio-demographic variables from the Health Survey for England over 2003–2007 and combining it with food price information from the Expenditure and Food Survey. Aggregating the data into a pseudo-panel, we estimate fixed effects models to examine the trend in salt intake over the period and to deduce the heterogeneous effects of the policy on the intake of socio-demographic groups. Our results are consistent with a previous hypothesis that the campaign reduced salt intakes by approximately 10%. The impact is shown to be stronger among women than among men. Older cohorts of men show a larger response to the salt campaign compared to younger cohorts, while among women, younger cohorts respond more strongly than older cohorts.

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis, this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. For a range of economic variables, substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.

Understanding the early stages of the innovation diffusion process: awareness, influence and communication networks

The themes of awareness and influence within the innovation diffusion process are addressed. The innovation diffusion process is typically represented as stages, yet awareness and influence are somewhat under-represented in the literature. Awareness and influence are situated within the contextual setting of individual actors but also within the broader institutional forces. Understanding how actors become aware of an innovation and then how their opinion is influenced is important for creating a more innovation-active UK construction sector. Social network analysis is proposed as one technique for mapping how awareness and influence occur and what they look like as a network. Empirical data are gathered using two modes of enquiry. This is done through a pilot study consisting of chartered professionals and then through a case study organization as it attempted to diffuse an innovation. The analysis demonstrates significant variations across actors’ awareness and influence networks. It is argued that social network analysis can complement other research methods in order to present a richer picture of how actors become aware of innovations and where they draw their influences regarding adopting innovations. In summarizing the findings, a framework for understanding awareness and influence associated with innovation within the UK construction sector is presented. Finally, with the UK construction sector continually being encouraged to be innovative, understanding and managing an actor’s awareness and influence network will be beneficial. The overarching conclusion thus describes the need not only to build research capacity in this area but also to push the boundaries related to the research methods employed.

A spatial–temporal analysis of the impact of access restrictions on forest landscapes and household welfare in Tanzania

This paper explores the impact of the re-introduction of access restrictions to forests in Tanzania, through participatory forest management (PFM), that have excluded villagers from forests to which they have traditionally, albeit illegally, had access to collect non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Motivated by our fieldwork, and using a spatial–temporal model, we focus on the paths of forest degradation and regeneration and villagers' utility before and after an access restriction is introduced. Our paper illustrates a number of key points for policy makers. First, the benefits of forest conservation tend to be greatest in the first few periods after an access restriction is introduced, after which the overall forest quality often declines. Second, villagers may displace their NTFP collection into more distant forests that may have been completely protected by distance alone before access to a closer forest was restricted. Third, permitting villagers to collect limited amounts of NTFPs for a fee, or alternatively fining villagers caught collecting illegally from the protected forest, and returning the fee or fine revenue to the villagers, can improve both forest quality and villagers' livelihoods.

Gradients of the intergenerational transmission of health in developing countries

This paper investigates sensitivity of the intergenerational transmission of health to changes in the socioeconomic and public health environment into which children are born using individual survey data on 2.24 million children born to 600000 mothers during 1970-2000 in 38 developing countries merged by country and cohort with macroeconomic data. We find that children are more likely to bear the penalty exerted by poor maternal health if they are conceived or born in adverse socioeconomic conditions. Equivalently, shocks to the child’s birth environment are more damaging of children born to women with a weaker stock of health at birth.

An in-depth view of the facets, antecedents and effects of leaders’ change competency: lessons from a case study

Leaders across companies initiate and implement change and thus are crucial for successful organizations. This study takes a competency perspective on leaders and investigates the competencies leaders show to facilitate effective change. The article explores the content of the construct of leaders’ change competency and examines its antecedents and effects. We conducted a case study in a German tourism company undergoing a major change process. The study identified (a) distinct content facets regarding the construct of leaders’ change competency along its two dimensions of leaders’ readiness for change and leaders’ change ability; (b) the construct’s antecedents, specifically contextual factors, leaders’ competency potentials, and attitudes toward change; and (c) beneficial effects of leaders’ change competency. The study ends with implications for research and leadership practice as well as suggestions for future studies on leaders’ change competency.

A characterization of the food industries

Consistent conjectures applied to the food industries are investigated. This is a homogeneous-product, quantity-setting model with identical firms. When firm numbers are fixed, the consistent conjecture is monopolistic. When variable, consistency requires firm output to expand with exit and contract with entry, but no conjecture exists that is consistent with equilibrium.

Excise taxes and commodity promotion bayesian retrieval of the optimum

This article shows how the solution to the promotion problem—the problem of locating the optimal level of advertising in a downstream market—can be derived simply, empirically, and robustly through the application of some simple calculus and Bayesian econometrics. We derive the complete distribution of the level of promotion that maximizes producer surplus and generate recommendations about patterns as well as levels of expenditure that increase net returns. The theory and methods are applied to quarterly series (1978:2S1988:4) on red meats promotion by the Australian Meat and Live-Stock Corporation. A slightly different pattern of expenditure would have profited lamb producers