Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

An ichnofabric approach to the depositional interpretation of the intensely burrowed Bateig Limestone, Miocene, SE Spain

The foraminiferal-rich pelagic Bateig Limestone forms several varieties of the important building stones quarried at Bateig Hill in southeastern Spain. Three principal ichnofabrics (Bichordites, mottled-Palaeophycus and mottled-Ophiomorpha) are recognized, which are present in at least two (possibly up to four) repeated successions (cycles). Each succession begins with an erosional event. The Bichordites ichnofabric represents a new type of facies, formed as thin turbidity/grain flow, stratiform units derived from sediment slips off a fault into deep water. Each slipped unit became almost completely bioturbated by infaunal echinoids, colonizing by lateral migration. Because of the thinness of the units, successive colonizations tended to truncate the underlying burrows giving rise to a pseudo-stratification. As the Bichordites ichnofabric accumulated on the fault apron, thus reducing the effective height of the fault scarp, the substrate gradually came under the influence of currents traversing the shelf. This led to a change in hydraulic regime, and to the mottled-Palaeophycus and mottled-Ophiomorpha ichnofabrics in sediment deposited under bed load transport, and associated with laminar and cross-stratified beds and local muddy intervals. Reactivation of the fault triggered erosion and channeling and a return to grain flow sedimentation, and to the Bichordites ichnofabric of the succeeding cycle. The highest unit of the Bateig Limestone is formed entirely of cross-stratified calcarenites with occasional Ophiomorpha (Ophiomorpha-primary lamination ichnofabric) and is similar to many shallow marine facies but they still bear a significant content of pelagic foraminifera. The sedimentary setting bears resemblance with that described for the Pleistocene Monte Torre Paleostrait and the modem Strait of Messina (Italy), where the narrow morphology of the depositional area enhanced tidal currents and allowed for high-energy sandy deposition in relatively deep areas. More data on the Miocene paleogeography of the Bateig area should provide further testing for this hypothesis. The ichnofacies and stacking of the Bateig Limestone differ from the classic Seilacherian model in that they reflect changes in hydraulic process and are associated with faulting and subsidence and changes in sediment supply. Recognition of the unusual ichnofabrics and their relationships provides a clear indication of the overall dynamic setting. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

The Wheal Jane wetlands model for bioremediation of acid mine drainage

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is a widespread environmental problem associated with both working and abandoned mining operations. As part of an overall strategy to determine a long-term treatment option for AMD, a pilot passive treatment plant was constructed in 1994 at Wheal Jane Mine in Cornwall, UK. The plant consists of three separate systems, each containing aerobic reed beds, anaerobic cell and rock filters, and represents the largest European experimental facility of its kind. The systems only differ by the type of pretreatment utilised to increase the pH of the influent minewater (pH <4): lime dosed (LD), anoxic limestone drain (ALD) and lime free (LF), which receives no form of pretreatment. Historical data (1994-1997) indicate median Fe reduction between 55% and 92%, sulphate removal in the range of 3-38% and removal of target metals (cadmium, copper and zinc) below detection limits, depending on pretreatment and flow rates through the system. A new model to simulate the processes and dynamics of the wetlands systems is described, as well as the application of the model to experimental data collected at the pilot plant. The model is process based, and utilises reaction kinetic approaches based on experimental microbial techniques rather than an equilibrium approach to metal precipitation. The model is dynamic and utilises numerical integration routines to solve a set of differential equations that describe the behaviour of 20 variables over the 17 pilot plant cells on a daily basis. The model outputs at each cell boundary are evaluated and compared with the measured data, and the model is demonstrated to provide a good representation of the complex behaviour of the wetland system for a wide range of variables. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V/ All rights reserved.

Impacts of forestry on nitrogen in upland and lowland catchments: a comparison of the River Severn at Plynlimon in mid-Wales and the Bedford Ouse in south-east England using the INCA Model

The impacts of afforestation at Plynlimon in the Severn catchment, mid-Wales. and in the Bedford Ouse catchment in south-east England are evaluated using the INCA model to simulate Nitrogen (N) fluxes and concentrations. The INCA model represents the key hydrological and N processes operating in catchments and simulates the daily dynamic behaviour as well as the annual fluxes. INCA has been applied to five years of data front the Hafren and Hore headwater sub-catchments (6.8 km(2) area in total) of the River Severn at Plytilimon and the model was calibrated and validated against field data. Simulation of afforestation is achieved by altering the uptake rate parameters in the model. INCA simulates the daily N behaviour in the catchments with good accuracy as well as reconstructing the annual budgets for N release following clearfelling a four-fold increase in N fluxes was followed by a slow recovery after re-afforestation. For comparison, INCA has been applied to the large (8380 km(2)) Bedford Ouse catchment to investigate the impact of replacing 20% arable land with forestry. The reduction in fertiliser inputs from arable farming and the N uptake by the forest are predicted to reduce the N flux reaching the main river system, leading to a 33% reduction in N-Nitrate concentrations in the river water.

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

Modelling impacts of pollution in river systems: a new dispersion model and a case study of mine discharges in the Abrud, Aries and Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania

A new model of dispersion has been developed to simulate the impact of pollutant discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the main dispersion processes operating in rivers as well as the dilution from incoming tributaries and first-order kinetic decay processes. The model is dynamic and simulates the hourly behaviour of river flow and pollutants along river systems. The model has been applied to the Aries and Mures River System in Romania and has been used to assess the impacts of potential dam releases from the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania. The question of mine water release is investigated under a range of scenarios. The impacts on pollution levels downstream at key sites and at the border with Hungary are investigated.

Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1)

[ 1] A rapid increase in the variety, quality, and quantity of observations in polar regions is leading to a significant improvement in the understanding of sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes and their representation in global climate models. We assess the simulation of sea ice in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) against the latest available observations. The HadGEM1 sea ice component uses elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics, multiple ice thickness categories, and zero-layer thermodynamics. The model evaluation is focused on the mean state of the key variables of ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and albedo. The model shows good agreement with observational data sets. The variability of the ice forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation is also found to agree with observations.

ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2). Comparison of the model results with present day observations show that most of the models reproduce the large scale features of the tropical Pacific like the SST gradient, the mean SST and the mean seasonal cycles. All models simulate the ENSO variability, although with different skill. Our analyses show that several relationships between El Niño amplitude and the mean state across the different control simulations are still valid for simulations of the MH and the LGM. Results for the MH show a consistent El Niño amplitude decrease. It can be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation changes. While the Northern Hemisphere receives more insolation during the summer time, the Asian summer monsoon system is strengthened which leads to the enhancement of the Walker circulation. Easterlies prevailing over the central eastern Pacific induce an equatorial upwelling that damps the El Niño development. Results are less conclusive for 21ka. Large scale dynamic competes with changes in local heat fluxes, so that model shows a wide range of responses, as it is the case in future climate projections.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

An integrative model of amino acid metabolism in the liver of the lactating dairy cow

The objective of this work was to construct a dynamic model of hepatic amino acid metabolism in the lactating dairy cow that could be parameterized using net flow data from in vivo experiments. The model considers 22 amino acids, ammonia, urea, and 13 energetic metabolites, and was parameterized using a steady-state balance model and two in vivo, net flow experiments conducted with mid-lactation dairy cows. Extracellular flows were derived directly from the observed data. An optimization routine was used to derive nine intracellular flows. The resulting dynamic model was found to be stable across a range of inputs suggesting that it can be perturbed and applied to other physiological states. Although nitrogen was generally in balance, leucine was in slight deficit compared to predicted needs for export protein synthesis, suggesting that an alternative source of leucine (e.g. peptides) was utilized. Simulations of varying glucagon concentrations indicated that an additional 5 mol/d of glucose could be synthesized at the reference substrate concentrations and blood flows. The increased glucose production was supported by increased removal from blood of lactate, glutamate, aspartate, alanine, asparagine, and glutamine. As glucose Output increased, ketone body and acetate release increased while CO2 release declined. The pattern of amino acids appearing in hepatic vein blood was affected by changes in amino acid concentration in portal vein blood, portal blood flow rate and glucagon concentration, with methionine and phenylalanine being the most affected of essential amino acids. Experimental evidence is insufficient to determine whether essential amino acids are affected by varying gluconeogenic demands. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An integrated mathematical model to evaluate nutrient partition in dairy cattle between the animal and its environment

In the past decade, a number of mechanistic, dynamic simulation models of several components of the dairy production system have become available. However their use has been limited due to the detailed technical knowledge and special software required to run them, and the lack of compatibility between models in predicting various metabolic processes in the animal. The first objective of the current study was to integrate the dynamic models of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 679] on rumen function, [J. Anim. Sci. 79 (2001) 1584] on methane production, [J. Anim. Sci. 80 (2002) 2481 on N partition, and a new model of P partition. The second objective was to construct a decision support system to analyse nutrient partition between animal and environment. The integrated model combines key environmental pollutants such as N, P and methane within a nutrient-based feed evaluation system. The model was run under different scenarios and the sensitivity of various parameters analysed. A comparison of predictions from the integrated model with the original simulation models showed an improvement in N excretion since the integrated model uses the dynamic model of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 6791 to predict microbial N, which was not represented in detail in the original model. The integrated model can be used to investigate the degree to which production and environmental objectives are antagonistic, and it may help to explain and understand the complex mechanisms involved at the ruminal and metabolic levels. A part of the integrated model outputs were the forms of N and P in excreta and methane, which can be used as indices of environmental pollution. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.