Dynamical evolution of North Atlantic ridges and poleward Jet Stream displacements

The development of a particular wintertime atmospheric circulation regime over the North Atlantic, comprising a northward shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and an associated strong and persistent ridge in the subtropics, is investigated. Several different methods of analysis are combined to describe the temporal evolution of the events and relate it to shifts in the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern. First, the authors identify a close relationship between northward shifts of the eddy-driven jet, the establishment and maintenance of strong and persistent ridges in the subtropics, and the occurrence of upper-tropospheric anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Iberia. Clear tropospheric precursors are evident prior to the development of the regime, suggesting a preconditioning of the Atlantic jet stream and an upstream influence via a large-scale Rossby wave train from the North Pacific. Transient (2–6 days) eddy forcing plays a dual role, contributing to both the initiation and then the maintenance of the circulation anomalies. During the regime there is enhanced occurrence of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which may be described as low-latitude blocking-like events over the southeastern North Atlantic. A strong ridge is already established at the time of wave-breaking onset, suggesting that the role of wave-breaking events is to amplify the circulation anomalies rather than to initiate them. Wave breaking also seems to enhance the persistence, since it is unlikely that a persistent ridge event occurs without being also accompanied by wave breaking.

Interface vulnerability and knowledge of the subjunctive/indicative distinction with negated epistemic predicates in L2 Spanish.

Much recent research in SLA is guided by the hypothesis of L2 interface vulnerability (see Sorace 2005). This study contributes to this general project by examining the acquisition of two classes of subjunctive complement clauses in L2 Spanish: subjunctive complements of volitional predicates (purely syntactic) and subjunctive vs. indicative complements with negated epistemic matrix predicates, where the mood distinction is discourse dependent (thus involving the syntax-discourse interface). We provide an analysis of the volitional subjunctive in English and Spanish, suggesting that English learners of L2 Spanish need to access the functional projection Mood P and an uninterpretable modal feature on the Force head available to them from their formal English register grammar, and simultaneously must unacquire the structure of English for-to clauses. For negated epistemic predicates, our analysis maintains that they need to revalue the modal feature on the Force head from uninterpretable to interpretable, within the L2 grammar.With others (e.g. Borgonovo & Prévost 2003; Borgonovo, Bruhn de Garavito & Prévost 2005) and in line with Sorace's (2000, 2003, 2005) notion of interface vulnerability, we maintain that the latter case is more difficult for L2 learners, which is borne out in the data we present. However, the data also show that the indicative/subjunctive distinction with negated epistemics can be acquired by advanced stages of acquisition, questioning the notion of obligatory residual optionality for all properties which require the integration of syntactic and discourse information.

Livelihoods and Vulnerability in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Southern Africa: Exploring the links between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation

This book sets out the findings of research conducted into the links between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in Southern Africa. It follows from extensive primary research conducted in the region, as well as intensive engagement with researchers, policy-makers and relevant institutions in several countries in southern Africa, as part of the Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Programme led by DFI, NERC and ESRC.

Interpretation of ageostrophic winds and implications for jet stream maintenance

The use of ageostrophic flow to infer the presence of vertical circulations in the entrances and exits of the climatological jet streams is questioned. Problems of interpretation arise because of the use of different definitions of geostrophy in theoretical studies and in analyses of atmospheric data. The nature and role of the ageostrophic flow based on constant and variable Coriolis parameter definitions of geostrophy vary. In the latter the geostrophic divergence cannot be neglected, so the vertical motion is not associated solely with the ageostrophic flow. Evidence is presented suggesting that ageostrophic flow in the climatological jet streams is primarily determined by the kinematic requirements of wave retrogression rather than by a forcing process. These requirements are largely met by the rotational flow, with the divergent circulations present being geostrophically forced, and so playing a secondary, restoring role.

Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

Ice-stream initiation, duration and thinning on James Ross Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Predicting the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change requires an understanding of the ice streams that dominate its dynamics. Here we use cosmogenic isotope exposure-age dating (26Al, 10Be and 36Cl) of erratic boulders on ice-free land on James Ross Island, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, to define the evolution of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice in the adjacent Prince Gustav Channel. These data include ice-sheet extent, thickness and dynamical behaviour. Prior to ∼18 ka, the LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet extended to the continental shelf-edge and transported erratic boulders onto high-elevation mesas on James Ross Island. After ∼18 ka there was a period of rapid ice-sheet surface-lowering, coincident with the initiation of the Prince Gustav Ice Stream. This timing coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric temperature and eustatic sea-level rise around the Antarctic Peninsula. Collectively, these data provide evidence for a transition from a thick, cold-based LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to a thinner, partially warm-based ice sheet during deglaciation.

Examining vulnerability to involuntary memories in schizophrenia comorbid with post-traumatic stress disorder

The current study explored whether individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia and a high level of PTSD symptoms experience more frequent neutral intrusive memories than individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia with low level PTSD symptoms. Results supported a vulnerability to neutral intrusive memories within the comorbid group, which did not seem to be related to psychotic symptom severity. It is possible that a subgroup of psychotic individuals’ process information in a manner that make them susceptible to frequent intrusive memories, characteristic of a PTSD presentation. A longitudinal study is required to specify the development of this vulnerability so as to inform future interventions.

Data stream mining in ubiquitous environments: state-of-the-art and current directions

In this article, we review the state-of-the-art techniques in mining data streams for mobile and ubiquitous environments. We start the review with a concise background of data stream processing, presenting the building blocks for mining data streams. In a wide range of applications, data streams are required to be processed on small ubiquitous devices like smartphones and sensor devices. Mobile and ubiquitous data mining target these applications with tailored techniques and approaches addressing scarcity of resources and mobility issues. Two categories can be identified for mobile and ubiquitous mining of streaming data: single-node and distributed. This survey will cover both categories. Mining mobile and ubiquitous data require algorithms with the ability to monitor and adapt the working conditions to the available computational resources. We identify the key characteristics of these algorithms and present illustrative applications. Distributed data stream mining in the mobile environment is then discussed, presenting the Pocket Data Mining framework. Mobility of users stimulates the adoption of context-awareness in this area of research. Context-awareness and collaboration are discussed in the Collaborative Data Stream Mining, where agents share knowledge to learn adaptive accurate models.

HIV-related stigma, asset inheritance and chronic poverty: vulnerability and resilience of widows and caregiving children and youth in Tanzania and Uganda

This paper develops a framework of risk and protective factors to conceptualise the relationship between HIV-related stigma, asset inheritance and chronic poverty among widows and caregiving children and youth in eastern Africa. Analysis of two qualitative studies with 85 participants in rural and urban areas of Tanzania and Uganda reveals that gendered and generational inequalities and stigmatisation sometimes led to property grabbing and chronic poverty. Human and social capital and preventative measures however may help widows and caregiving young people in HIV-affected households to safeguard land and other assets, within a wider supportive environment that seeks to tackle structural inequalities.

Mismatch Negativity (MMN) reveals inefficient auditory ventral stream function in chronic auditory comprehension impairments

Background: Auditory discrimination is significantly impaired in Wernicke’s aphasia (WA) and thought to be causatively related to the language comprehension impairment which characterises the condition. This study used mismatch negativity (MMN) to investigate the neural responses corresponding to successful and impaired auditory discrimination in WA. Methods: Behavioural auditory discrimination thresholds of CVC syllables and pure tones were measured in WA (n=7) and control (n=7) participants. Threshold results were used to develop multiple-deviant mismatch negativity (MMN) oddball paradigms containing deviants which were either perceptibly or non-perceptibly different from the standard stimuli. MMN analysis investigated differences associated with group, condition and perceptibility as well as the relationship between MMN responses and comprehension (within which behavioural auditory discrimination profiles were examined). Results: MMN waveforms were observable to both perceptible and non-perceptible auditory changes. Perceptibility was only distinguished by MMN amplitude in the PT condition. The WA group could be distinguished from controls by an increase in MMN response latency to CVC stimuli change. Correlation analyses displayed relationship between behavioural CVC discrimination and MMN amplitude in the control group, where greater amplitude corresponded to better discrimination. The WA group displayed the inverse effect; both discrimination accuracy and auditory comprehension scores were reduced with increased MMN amplitude. In the WA group, a further correlation was observed between the lateralisation of MMN response and CVC discrimination accuracy; the greater the bilateral involvement the better the discrimination accuracy. Conclusions: The results from this study provide further evidence for the nature of auditory comprehension impairment in WA and indicate that the auditory discrimination deficit is grounded in a reduced ability to engage in efficient hierarchical processing and the construction of invariant auditory objects. Correlation results suggest that people with chronic WA may rely on an inefficient, noisy right hemisphere auditory stream when attempting to process speech stimuli.

Towards a parallel computationally efficient approach to scaling up data stream classification

Advances in hardware technologies allow to capture and process data in real-time and the resulting high throughput data streams require novel data mining approaches. The research area of Data Stream Mining (DSM) is developing data mining algorithms that allow us to analyse these continuous streams of data in real-time. The creation and real-time adaption of classification models from data streams is one of the most challenging DSM tasks. Current classifiers for streaming data address this problem by using incremental learning algorithms. However, even so these algorithms are fast, they are challenged by high velocity data streams, where data instances are incoming at a fast rate. This is problematic if the applications desire that there is no or only a very little delay between changes in the patterns of the stream and absorption of these patterns by the classifier. Problems of scalability to Big Data of traditional data mining algorithms for static (non streaming) datasets have been addressed through the development of parallel classifiers. However, there is very little work on the parallelisation of data stream classification techniques. In this paper we investigate K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) as the basis for a real-time adaptive and parallel methodology for scalable data stream classification tasks.

How well can we model stream phosphorus concentrations in agricultural catchments?

Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. We investigate the reasons for this for one model, INCA-P, testing model output against 18 months of daily data in a small Scottish catchment. We examine key model processes and provide recommendations for model improvement and simplification. Improvements to the particulate phosphorus simulation are especially needed. The model evaluation procedure is then generalised to provide a checklist for identifying why model performance may be poor or unreliable, incorporating calibration, data, structural and conceptual challenges. There needs to be greater recognition that current models struggle to produce positive Nash–Sutcliffe statistics in agricultural catchments when evaluated against daily data. Phosphorus modelling is difficult, but models are not as useless as this might suggest. We found a combination of correlation coefficients, bias, a comparison of distributions and a visual assessment of time series a better means of identifying realistic simulations.