A simple model of the effects of the mid-latitude total ion trough in the bottomsideFlayer on HF radiowave propagation

Observations of the amplitudes and Doppler shifts of received HF radio waves are compared with model predictions made using a two-dimensional ray-tracing program. The signals are propagated over a sub-auroral path, which is shown to lie along the latitudes of the mid-latitude trough at times of low geomagnetic activity. Generalizing the predictions to include a simple model of the trough in the density and height of the F2 peak enables the explanation of the anomalous observed diurnal variations. The behavior of received amplitude, Doppler shift, and signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the Kp index value, the time of day, and the season (in 17 months of continuous recording) is found to agree closely with that predicted using the statistical position of the trough as deduced from 8 years of Alouette satellite soundings. The variation in the times of the observation of large signal amplitudes with the Kp value and the complete absence of such amplitudes when it exceeds 2.75 are two features that implicate the trough in these effects.

An evidence-based review on the likely economic and environmental impact of genetically modified cereals and oilseeds for UK agriculture

An evidence-based review of the potential impact that the introduction of genetically-modified (GM) cereal and oilseed crops could have for the UK was carried out. The inter-disciplinary research project addressed the key research questions using scenarios for the uptake, or not, of GM technologies. This was followed by an extensive literature review, stakeholder consultation and financial modelling. The world area of canola, oilseed rape (OSR) low in both erucic acid in the oil and glucosinolates in the meal, was 34M ha in 2012 of which 27% was GM; Canada is the lead producer but it is also grown in the USA, Australia and Chile. Farm level effects of adopting GM OSR include: lower production costs; higher yields and profits; and ease of farm management. Growing GM OSR instead of conventional OSR reduces both herbicide usage and environmental impact. Some 170M ha of maize was grown in the world in 2011 of which 28% was GM; the main producers are the USA, China and Brazil. Spain is the main EU producer of GM maize although it is also grown widely in Portugal. Insect resistant (IR) and herbicide tolerant (HT) are the GM maize traits currently available commercially. Farm level benefits of adopting GM maize are lower costs of production through reduced use of pesticides and higher profits. GM maize adoption results in less pesticide usage than on conventional counterpart crops leading to less residues in food and animal feed and allowing increasing diversity of bees and other pollinators. In the EU, well-tried coexistence measures for growing GM crops in the proximity of conventional crops have avoided gene flow issues. Scientific evidence so far seems to indicate that there has been no environmental damage from growing GM crops. They may possibly even be beneficial to the environment as they result in less pesticides and herbicides being applied and improved carbon sequestration from less tillage. A review of work on GM cereals relevant for the UK found input trait work on: herbicide and pathogen tolerance; abiotic stress such as from drought or salinity; and yield traits under different field conditions. For output traits, work has mainly focussed on modifying the nutritional components of cereals and in connection with various enzymes, diagnostics and vaccines. Scrutiny of applications submitted for field trial testing of GM cereals found around 9000 applications in the USA, 15 in Australia and 10 in the EU since 1996. There have also been many patent applications and granted patents for GM cereals in the USA for both input and output traits;an indication of the scale of such work is the fact that in a 6 week period in the spring of 2013, 12 patents were granted relating to GM cereals. A dynamic financial model has enabled us to better understand and examine the likely performance of Bt maize and HT OSR for the south of the UK, if cultivation is permitted in the future. It was found that for continuous growing of Bt maize and HT OSR, unless there was pest pressure for the former and weed pressure for the latter, the seed premia and likely coexistence costs for a buffer zone between other crops would reduce the financial returns for the GM crops compared with their conventional counterparts. When modelling HT OSR in a four crop rotation, it was found that gross margins increased significantly at the higher levels of such pest or weed pressure, particularly for farm businesses with larger fields where coexistence costs would be scaled down. The impact of the supply of UK-produced GM crops on the wider supply chain was examined through an extensive literature review and widespread stakeholder consultation with the feed supply chain. The animal feed sector would benefit from cheaper supplies of raw materials if GM crops were grown and, in the future, they might also benefit from crops with enhanced nutritional profile (such as having higher protein levels) becoming available. This would also be beneficial to livestock producers enabling lower production costs and higher margins. Whilst coexistence measures would result in increased costs, it is unlikely that these would cause substantial changes in the feed chain structure. Retailers were not concerned about a future increase in the amount of animal feed coming from GM crops. To conclude, we (the project team) feel that the adoption of currently available and appropriate GM crops in the UK in the years ahead would benefit farmers, consumers and the feed chain without causing environmental damage. Furthermore, unless British farmers are allowed to grow GM crops in the future, the competitiveness of farming in the UK is likely to decline relative to that globally.

Effects of orange juice formulation on prebiotic functionality using an in vitro colonic model sytem

A three-stage continuous fermentative colonic model system was used to monitor in vitro the effect of different orange juice formulations on prebiotic activity. Three different juices with and without Bimuno, a GOS mixture containing galactooligosaccharides (B-GOS) were assessed in terms of their ability to induce a bifidogenic microbiota. The recipe development was based on incorporating 2.75g B-GOS into a 250 ml serving of juice (65°Brix of concentrate juice). Alongside the production of B-GOS juice, a control juice - orange juice without any additional Bimuno and a positive control juice, containing all the components of Bimuno (glucose, galactose and lactose) in the same relative proportions with the exception of B-GOS were developed. Ion Exchange Chromotography analysis was used to test the maintenance of bimuno components after the production process. Data showed that sterilisation had no significant effect on concentration of B-GOS and simple sugars. The three juice formulations were digested under conditions resembling the gastric and small intestinal environments. Main bacterial groups of the faecal microbiota were evaluated throughout the colonic model study using 16S rRNA-based fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Potential effects of supplementation of the juices on microbial metabolism were studied measuring short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) using gas chromatography. Furthermore, B-GOS juices showed positive modulations of the microbiota composition and metabolic activity. In particular, numbers of faecal bifidobacteria and lactobacilli were significantly higher when B-GOS juice was fermented compared to controls. Furthermore, fermentation of B-GOS juice resulted in an increase in Roseburia subcluster and concomitantly increased butyrate production, which is of potential benefit to the host. In conclusion, this study has shown B-GOS within orange juice can have a beneficial effect on the fecal microbiota.

Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to deal with loss and damage associated with climate change impacts, including extreme events, in developing countries. It is not yet known whether events will need to be attributed to anthropogenic climate change to be considered under the WIM. Attribution is possible for some extreme events- a climate model assessment can estimate how greenhouse gas emissions have affected the likelihood of their occurrence. Dialogue between scientists and stakeholders is required to establish whether, and how, this science could play a role in the WIM.

Energy consistent discontinuous Galerkin methods for a quasi-incompressible diffuse two phase flow model

We design consistent discontinuous Galerkin finite element schemes for the approximation of a quasi-incompressible two phase flow model of Allen–Cahn/Cahn–Hilliard/Navier–Stokes–Korteweg type which allows for phase transitions. We show that the scheme is mass conservative and monotonically energy dissipative. In this case the dissipation is isolated to discrete equivalents of those effects already causing dissipation on the continuous level, that is, there is no artificial numerical dissipation added into the scheme. In this sense the methods are consistent with the energy dissipation of the continuous PDE system.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

A low mortality, high morbidity reduced intensity status epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.

A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.