94 resultados para Contingency Reversal


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We outline a method to determine the direction of solar open flux transport that results from the opening of magnetic clouds (MCs) by interchange reconnection at the Sun based solely on in-situ observations. This method uses established findings about i) the locations and magnetic polarities of emerging MC footpoints, ii) the hemispheric dependence of the helicity of MCs, and iii) the occurrence of interchange reconnection at the Sun being signaled by uni-directional suprathermal electrons inside MCs. Combining those observational facts in a statistical analysis of MCs during solar cycle 23 (period 1995 – 2007), we show that the time of disappearance of the northern polar coronal hole (1998 – 1999), permeated by an outward-pointing magnetic field, is associated with a peak in the number of MCs originating from the northern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by outward-pointing magnetic field lines. A similar peak is observed in the number of MCs originating from the southern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by inward-pointing magnetic field lines. This pattern is interpreted as the result of interchange reconnection occurring between MCs and the open field lines of nearby polar coronal holes. This reconnection process closes down polar coronal hole open field lines and transports these open field lines equatorward, thus contributing to the global coronal magnetic field reversal process. These results will be further constrainable with the rising phase of solar cycle 24.

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This paper examines the short and long-term persistence of tax-exempt real estate funds in the UK through the use of winner-loser contingency table methodology. The persistence tests are applied to a database of varying numbers of funds from a low of 16 to a high of 27 using quarterly returns over the 12 years from 1990 Q1 to 2001 Q4. The overall conclusion is that the real estate funds in the UK show little evidence of persistence in the short-term (quarterly and semi-annual data) or for data over a considerable length of time (bi-annual to six yearly intervals). In contrast, the results are better for annual data with evidence of significant performance persistence. Thus at this stage, it seems that an annual evaluation period, provides the best discrimination of the winner and loser phenomenon in the real estate market. This result is different from equity and bond studies, where it seems that the repeat winner phenomenon is stronger over shorter periods of evaluation. These results require careful interpretation, however, as the results show that when only small samples are used significant adjustments must be made to correct for small sample bias and second the conclusions are sensitive to the length of the evaluation period and specific test used. Nonetheless, it seems that persistence in performance of real estate funds in the UK does exist, at least for the annual data, and it appears to be a guide to beating the pack in the long run. Furthermore, although the evidence of persistence in performance for the overall sample of funds is limited, we have found evidence that two funds were consistent winners over this period, whereas no one fund could be said to be a consistent loser.

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The British countryside has been shaped and sustained over the years by the establishment of landed estates. Some of our best known, and now most protected, landmarks derive from this tradition by which money, that was often sourced from outside the rural economy, was invested in land. Whilst there was some reversal in this trend during the last century, there is again a widespread desire among people of means to invest in new country property. Paragraph 3.21 of Planning Policy Guidance Note 7: The Countryside - Environmental Quality and Economic and Social Development was introduced in 1997 as a means of perpetuating the historic tradition of innovation in the countryside through the construction of fine individual houses in landscaped grounds. That it was considered necessary to use a special provision of this kind reflects the prevailing presumption of planning authorities against allowing private residential development in open countryside. The Government is currently reviewing rural planning policy and is focusing on higher density housing, affordable homes and the use of brownfield sites. There is an underlying conception that individual private house developments contribute nothing and are seen as the least attractive option for most development sites. The purpose of paragraph 3.21 lies outside the government’s priorities and its particular provisions may therefore be excluded in forthcoming ‘policy statements’. This paper seeks to examine the role of private investors wishing to build new houses in the countryside, and the impact that that might have on local economies. It explores the interpretation placed on PPG7 through an investigation of appeal sites, and concludes by making recommendations for the review process, including the retention of some form of exceptions policy for new build houses.

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Government and institutionally-driven ‘good practice transfer’ initiatives are consistently presented as a means to enhance construction firm and industry performance. Two implicit tenets of these initiatives appear to be: knowledge embedded in good practice will transfer automatically; and, the potential of implementing good practice will be capitalised regardless of the context where it is to be used. The validity of these tenets is increasingly being questioned and, concurrently, more nuanced knowledge production understandings are being developed which recognise and incorporate context-specificity. This research contributes to this growing, more critical agenda by examining the actual benefits accrued from good practice transfer from the perspective of a small specialist trade contracting firm. A concept model for successful good practice transfer is developed from a single longitudinal case study within a small heating and plumbing firm. The concept model consists of five key variables: environment, strategy, people, technology, and organisation of work. The key findings challenge the implicit assumptions prevailing in the existing literature and support a contingency approach that argues successful good practice transfer is not just adopting and mechanistically inserting into the firm, but requires addressing ‘behavioural’ aspects. For successful good practice transfer, small specialist trade contracting firms need to develop and operationalise organisation slack, mechanisms for scanning external stimuli and absorbing knowledge. They also need to formulate and communicate client-driven external strategies; to motive and educate people at all levels; to possess internal or accessible complementary skills and knowledge; to have ‘soft focus’ immediate/mid-term benefits at a project level; and, to embed good practice in current work practices.

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In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

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The preparation, crystal structures and magnetic properties of two new isoelectronic and isomorphous formate-and nitrite-bridged 1D chains of Mn(III)-salen complexes, [Mn(salen)(HCOO)](n) (1) and [Mn(salen)(NO2)](n) (2), where salen is the dianion of N,N'-bis(salicylidene)-1,2-diaminoethane, are presented. The structures show that the salen ligand coordinates to the four equatorial sites of the metal ion and the formate or nitrite ions coordinate to the axial positions to bridge the Mn(III)-salen units through a syn-anti mu-1 kappa O:2 kappa O' coordination mode. Such a bridging mode is unprecedented in Mn(III) for formate and in any transition metal ion for nitrite. Variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements of complexes 1 and 2 indicate the presence of ferromagnetic exchange interactions with J values of 0.0607 cm(-1) (for 1) and 0.0883 cm(-1) (for 2). The ac measurements indicate negligible frequency dependence for 1 whereas compound 2 exhibits a decrease of chi(ac)' and a concomitant increase of chi(ac)'' on elevating frequency around 2 K. This finding is an indication of slow magnetization reversal characteristic of single-chain magnets or spin-glasses. The mu-nitrito-1 kappa O:2 kappa O' bridge seems to be a potentially superior magnetic coupler to the formate bridge for the construction of single-molecule/-chain magnets as its coupling constant is greater and the chi(ac)' and chi(ac)'' show frequency dependence.

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Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 at T106 resolution (1.125' lat.Aon.) has considerable skill in reproducing the observed seasonal reversal of mean sea level pressure, the location of the summer heat low as well as the position of the monsoon trough over the Indian subcontinent. The present-day climate and its seasonal cycle are realistically simulated by the model over this region. The model simulates the structure, intensity, frequency, movement and lifetime of monsoon depressions remarkably well. The number of monsoon depressions/storms simulated by the model in a year ranged from 5 to 12 with an average frequency of 8.4 yr-', not significantly different from the observed climatology. The model also simulates the interannual variability in the formation of depressions over the north Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season. In the warmer atmosphere under doubled CO2 conditions, the number of monsoon depressions/cyclonic storms forming in Indian seas in a year ranged from 5 to 11 with an average frequency of 7.6 yr-', not significantly different from those inferred in the control run of the model. However, under doubled CO2 conditions, fewer depressions formed in the month of June. Neither the lowest central pressure nor the maximum wind speed changes appreciably in monsoon depressions identified under simulated enhanced greenhouse conditions. The analysis suggests there will be no significant changes in the number and intensity of monsoon depressions in a warmer atmosphere.

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The extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model is used to investigate the large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). It is shown that the 4-day wave is substantially amplified in southern polar winter in the presence of instabilities arising from strong vertical shears in the MLT zonal mean zonal winds brought about by parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag. A weaker 4-day wave in northern polar winter is attributed to the weaker wind shears that result from weaker parameterized wave drag. The 2-day wave also exhibits a strong dependence on zonal wind shears, in agreement with previous modeling studies. In the equatorial upper mesosphere, the migrating diurnal tide provides most of the resolved westward wave forcing, which varies semiannually in conjunction with the tide itself; resolved forcing by eastward traveling disturbances is dominated by smaller scales. Nonmigrating tides and other planetary-scale waves play only a minor role in the zonal mean zonal momentum budget in the tropics at these heights. Resolved waves are shown to play a significant role in the zonal mean meridional momentum budget in the MLT, impacting significantly on gradient wind balance. Balance fails at low latitudes as a result of a strong Reynolds stress associated with the migrating diurnal tide, an effect which is most pronounced at equinox when the tide is strongest. Resolved and parameterized waves account for most of the imbalance at higher latitudes in summer. This results in the gradient wind underestimating the actual eastward wind reversal by up to 40%.

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OBJECTIVES: Aspirin therapy is usually continued throughout the perioperative period to reduce the risk for thromboembolic stroke and myocardial infarction after carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Aspirin irreversibly binds cyclooxygenase-1, thereby reducing platelet aggregation for the lifetime of each platelet. However, recent research from this unit has shown that aggregation in response to arachidonic acid increases significantly, but transiently, during CEA, which suggests that the anti-platelet effect of aspirin is temporarily reversed. The purpose of the current study was to determine when this phenomenon occurs and to identify the possible mechanisms involved. METHODS: Platelet aggregation was measured in platelet-rich plasma from 41 patients undergoing CEA who were stabilized with 150 mg of aspirin daily. Blood was taken at 8 time points: before anesthesia, after anesthesia, before heparinization, 3 minutes after heparinization, 3 minutes after shunt insertion, 10 minutes after flow restoration, 4 hours postoperatively, and 24 hours postoperatively. Platelet aggregation was also measured at similar times in a group of 18 patients undergoing peripheral angioplasty without general anesthesia. RESULTS: All patient platelets were effectively inhibited by aspirin at the start of the operation. There was a significant intraoperative increase in platelet response to arachidonic acid in both groups of patients, which occurred within 3 minutes of administration of unfractionated heparin. In the CEA group this resulted in a greater than 10-fold increase in mean aggregation, to 5 mmol/L of arachidonic acid (5 mmol/L), rising from 3.9% +/- 2.2% preoperatively to 45.1% +/- 29.3% after administration of heparin ( P <.0001). This increased aggregation persisted into the early postoperative period, but by 24 hours post operation aggregation had returned to near preoperative values. Aggregation in response to other platelet agonists (adenosine diphosphate, thrombin receptor agonist peptide) showed only a small increase at the same time, which could be accounted for by a parallel increase in the level of spontaneous aggregation. CONCLUSION: Administration of heparin significantly increases platelet aggregation in response to arachidonic acid, despite adequate inhibition by aspirin administered preoperatively. This apparent reversal in anti-platelet activity persisted into the immediate early postoperative period, and could explain why a small proportion of patients are at increased risk for acute cardiovascular events after major vascular surgery, despite aspirin therapy.

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When human observers are exposed to even slight motion signals followed by brief visual transients—stimuli containing no detectable coherent motion signals—they perceive large and salient illusory jumps. This novel effect, which we call “high phi”, challenges well-entrenched assumptions about the perception of motion, namely the minimal-motion principle and the breakdown of coherent motion perception with steps above an upper limit. Our experiments with transients such as texture randomization or contrast reversal show that the magnitude of the jump depends on spatial frequency and transient duration, but not on the speed of the inducing motion signals, and the direction of the jump depends on the duration of the inducer. Jump magnitude is robust across jump directions and different types of transient. In addition, when a texture is actually displaced by a large step beyond dmax, a breakdown of coherent motion perception is expected, but in the presence of an inducer observers again perceive coherent displacements at or just above dmax. In sum, across a large variety of stimuli, we find that when incoherent motion noise is preceded by a small bias, instead of perceiving little or no motion, as suggested by the minimal-motion principle, observers perceive jumps whose amplitude closely follows their own dmax limits.

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In life, we must often learn new associations to people, places, or things we already know. The current fMRI study investigated the neural mechanisms underlying emotional memory updating. Nineteen participants first viewed negative and neutral pictures and learned associations between those pictures and other neutral stimuli, such as neutral objects and encoding tasks. This initial learning phase was followed by a memory updating phase, during which participants learned picture-location associations for old pictures (i.e., pictures previously associated with other neutral stimuli) and new pictures (i.e., pictures not seen in the first phase). There was greater frontopolar/orbito-frontal (OFC) activity when people learned picture–location associations for old negative pictures than for new negative pictures, but frontopolar OFC activity did not significantly differ during learning locations of old versus new neutral pictures. In addition, frontopolar activity was more negatively correlated with the amygdala when participants learned picture–location associations for old negative pictures than for new negative or old neutral pictures. Past studies revealed that the frontopolar OFC allows for updating the affective values of stimuli in reversal learning or extinction of conditioning [e.g., Izquierdo, A., & Murray, E. A. Opposing effects of amygdala and orbital PFC lesions on the extinction of instrumental responding in macaque monkeys. European Journal of Neuroscience, 22, 2341–2346, 2005]; our findings suggest that it plays a more general role in updating associations to emotional stimuli.

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Modern transaction cost economics (TCE) thinking has developed into a key intellectual foundation of international business (IB) research, but the Williamsonian version has faced substantial criticism for adopting the behavioral assumption of opportunism. In this paper we assess both the opportunism concept and existing alternatives such as trust within the context of IB research, especially work on multinational enterprise (MNE) governance. Case analyses of nine global MNEs illustrate an alternative to the opportunism assumption that captures more fully the mechanisms underlying failed commitments inside the MNE. As a substitute for the often-criticized assumption of opportunism, we propose the envelope concept of bounded reliability (BRel), an assumption that represents more accurately and more completely the reasons for failed commitments, without invalidating the other critical assumption in conventional TCE (and internalization theory) thinking, namely the widely accepted envelope concept of bounded rationality (BRat). Bounded reliability as an envelope concept includes two main components, within the context of global MNE management: opportunism as intentional deceit, and benevolent preference reversal. The implications for IB research of adopting the bounded reliability concept are far reaching, as this concept may increase the legitimacy of comparative institutional analysis in the social sciences.

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Tests of the new Rossby wave theories that have been developed over the past decade to account for discrepancies between theoretical wave speeds and those observed by satellite altimeters have focused primarily on the surface signature of such waves. It appears, however, that the surface signature of the waves acts only as a rather weak constraint, and that information on the vertical structure of the waves is required to better discriminate between competing theories. Due to the lack of 3-D observations, this paper uses high-resolution model data to construct realistic vertical structures of Rossby waves and compares these to structures predicted by theory. The meridional velocity of a section at 24° S in the Atlantic Ocean is pre-processed using the Radon transform to select the dominant westward signal. Normalized profiles are then constructed using three complementary methods based respectively on: (1) averaging vertical profiles of velocity, (2) diagnosing the amplitude of the Radon transform of the westward propagating signal at different depths, and (3) EOF analysis. These profiles are compared to profiles calculated using four different Rossby wave theories: standard linear theory (SLT), SLT plus mean flow, SLT plus topographic effects, and theory including mean flow and topographic effects. Our results support the classical theoretical assumption that westward propagating signals have a well-defined vertical modal structure associated with a phase speed independent of depth, in contrast with the conclusions of a recent study using the same model but for different locations in the North Atlantic. The model structures are in general surface intensified, with a sign reversal at depth in some regions, notably occurring at shallower depths in the East Atlantic. SLT provides a good fit to the model structures in the top 300 m, but grossly overestimates the sign reversal at depth. The addition of mean flow slightly improves the latter issue, but is too surface intensified. SLT plus topography rectifies the overestimation of the sign reversal, but overestimates the amplitude of the structure for much of the layer above the sign reversal. Combining the effects of mean flow and topography provided the best fit for the mean model profiles, although small errors at the surface and mid-depths are carried over from the individual effects of mean flow and topography respectively. Across the section the best fitting theory varies between SLT plus topography and topography with mean flow, with, in general, SLT plus topography performing better in the east where the sign reversal is less pronounced. None of the theories could accurately reproduce the deeper sign reversals in the west. All theories performed badly at the boundaries. The generalization of this method to other latitudes, oceans, models and baroclinic modes would provide greater insight into the variability in the ocean, while better observational data would allow verification of the model findings.

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Variations in carbon-14 to carbon-12 ratio in the atmosphere (Δ14Catm) provide a powerful diagnostic for elucidating the timing and nature of geophysical and anthropological change. The (Atlantic) marine archive suggests a rapid Δ14Catm increase of 50‰ at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal (12.9–11.7 kyr BP), which has not yet been satisfactorily explained in terms of magnitude or causal mechanism, as either a change in ocean ventilation or production rate. Using Earth-system model simulations and comparison of marine-based radiocarbon records from different ocean basins, we demonstrate that the YD Δ14Catm increase is smaller than suggested by the marine archive. This is due to changes in reservoir age, predominantly caused by reduced ocean ventilation.

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Garfield produces a critique of neo-minimalist art practice by demonstrating how the artist Melanie Jackson’s Some things you are not allowed to send around the world (2003 and 2006) and the experimental film-maker Vivienne Dick’s Liberty’s booty (1980) – neither of which can be said to be about feeling ‘at home’ in the world, be it as a resident or as a nomad – examine global humanity through multi-positionality, excess and contingency, and thereby begin to articulate a new cosmopolitan relationship with the local – or, rather, with many different localities – in one and the same maximalist sweep of the work. ‘Maximalism’ in Garfield’s coinage signifies an excessive overloading (through editing, collage, and the sheer density of the range of the material) that enables the viewer to insert themselves into the narrative of the work. In the art of both Jackson and Dick Garfield detects a refusal to know or to judge the world; instead, there is an attempt to incorporate the complexities of its full range into the singular vision of the work, challenging the viewer to identify what is at stake.