Making the least active pay: a simulation of rewards and penalties under Demand Side Participation programs

The orthodox approach for incentivising Demand Side Participation (DSP) programs is that utility losses from capital, installation and planning costs should be recovered under financial incentive mechanisms which aim to ensure that utilities have the right incentives to implement DSP activities. The recent national smart metering roll-out in the UK implies that this approach needs to be reassessed since utilities will recover the capital costs associated with DSP technology through bills. This paper introduces a reward and penalty mechanism focusing on residential users. DSP planning costs are recovered through payments from those consumers who do not react to peak signals. Those consumers who do react are rewarded by paying lower bills. Because real-time incentives to residential consumers tend to fail due to the negligible amounts associated with net gains (and losses) or individual users, in the proposed mechanism the regulator determines benchmarks which are matched against responses to signals and caps the level of rewards/penalties to avoid market distortions. The paper presents an overview of existing financial incentive mechanisms for DSP; introduces the reward/penalty mechanism aimed at fostering DSP under the hypothesis of smart metering roll-out; considers the costs faced by utilities for DSP programs; assesses linear rate effects and value changes; introduces compensatory weights for those consumers who have physical or financial impediments; and shows findings based on simulation runs on three discrete levels of elasticity.

A metabolic system-wide characterisation of the pig: a model for human physiology

The pig is a single-stomached omnivorous mammal and is an important model of human disease and nutrition. As such, it is necessary to establish a metabolic framework from which pathology-based variation can be compared. Here, a combination of one and two-dimensional (1)H and (13)C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and high-resolution magic angle spinning (HR-MAS) NMR was used to provide a systems overview of porcine metabolism via characterisation of the urine, serum, liver and kidney metabolomes. The metabolites observed in each of these biological compartments were found to be qualitatively comparable to the metabolic signature of the same biological matrices in humans and rodents. The data were modelled using a combination of principal components analysis and Venn diagram mapping. Urine represented the most metabolically distinct biological compartment studied, with a relatively greater number of NMR detectable metabolites present, many of which are implicated in gut-microbial co-metabolic processes. The major inter-species differences observed were in the phase II conjugation of extra-genomic metabolites; the pig was observed to conjugate p-cresol, a gut microbial metabolite of tyrosine, with glucuronide rather than sulfate as seen in man. These observations are important to note when considering the translatability of experimental data derived from porcine models.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Temperature optimization of optical-phase conjugation in dye doped polymer-films

Experimental results of the temperature dependence of the nonlinear optical response of methyl red doped polymethylmethacrylate films in the range 20°C to 170°C are reported. It is found that the intensity of the phase conjugate signal resulting from degenerate four-wave mixing using pump and probe beams with parallel polarisation states increases dramatically on heating by a factor of ∼ 10, reaching a maximum at ∼ 100°C. The intensity of the phase conjugate signal for the case with crossed polarisation states of the pump and probe beams drops monotonically with increasing temperature. For both configurations the response time shortens with increasing temperature. The particular role of the polymer matrix in this temperature variation of the nonlinear optical response is discussed.

Temperature-tuned vector phase conjugation in azobenzene dye impregnated polymer films

Near-perfect vector phase conjugation was achieved at 488 nm in a methyl red dye impregnated polymethylmethacrylate film by employing a temperature tuning technique. Using a degenerate four-wave mixing geometry with vertically polarized counterpropagating pump beams, intensity and polarization gratings were written in the dye/polymer system using a vertically or horizontally polarized weak probe beam. Over a limited temperature range, as the sample was heated, the probe reflectivity from the polarization grating dropped but the reflectivity from the intensity grating rose sharply. At a sample temperature of approximately 50°C, the reflectivities of the gratings were measured to be equal and we confirmed that, at this temperature, the measured vector phase conjugate fidelity was very close to unity. We discuss a possible explanation of this effect.

Bistability through triadic closure

We propose and analyse a class of evolving network models suitable for describing a dynamic topological structure. Applications include telecommunication, on-line social behaviour and information processing in neuroscience. We model the evolving network as a discrete time Markov chain, and study a very general framework where, conditioned on the current state, edges appear or disappear independently at the next timestep. We show how to exploit symmetries in the microscopic, localized rules in order to obtain conjugate classes of random graphs that simplify analysis and calibration of a model. Further, we develop a mean field theory for describing network evolution. For a simple but realistic scenario incorporating the triadic closure effect that has been empirically observed by social scientists (friends of friends tend to become friends), the mean field theory predicts bistable dynamics, and computational results confirm this prediction. We also discuss the calibration issue for a set of real cell phone data, and find support for a stratified model, where individuals are assigned to one of two distinct groups having different within-group and across-group dynamics.

Iterative Methods for Equality-Constrained Least Squares Problems

We consider the linear equality-constrained least squares problem (LSE) of minimizing ${\|c - Gx\|}_2 $, subject to the constraint $Ex = p$. A preconditioned conjugate gradient method is applied to the Kuhn–Tucker equations associated with the LSE problem. We show that our method is well suited for structural optimization problems in reliability analysis and optimal design. Numerical tests are performed on an Alliant FX/8 multiprocessor and a Cray-X-MP using some practical structural analysis data.

Reworking the NAFTA: departures from traditional frameworks

This paper reviews the treatment of intellectual property rights in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and considers the welfare-theoretic bases for innovation transfer between member and nonmember states. Specifically, we consider the effects of new technology development from within the union and question whether it is efficient (in a welfare sense) to transfer that new technology to nonmember states. When the new technology contains stochastic components, the important issue of information exchange arises and we consider this question in a simple oligopoly model with Bayesian updating. In this context, it is natural to ask the optimal price at which such information should be transferred. Some simple, natural conjugate examples are used to motivate the key parameters upon which the answer is dependent

Promotion carryover as a missing data problem

An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, nonconsecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20.

Organocatalytic domino reaction of cyanosulfones: access to complex cyclohexane systems with quaternary carbon centers

When ε-nitro-a,β-unsaturated esters are added to conjugated cyanosulfones in the presence of a bifunctional thiourea catalyst, a highly stereoselective domino reaction occurs to generate complex cyclohexanes with up to four stereogenic centers, one of which is quaternary in nature. Therefore, it is demonstrated that, like nitro compounds, sulfones can undergo an asymmetric intramolecular conjugate addition to r,β- unsaturated esters in the presence of a bifunctional organocatalyst.

Brill Greek, Adobe Arno Pro, Adobe Text/Brevier Greek typefaces

Typeface design: a series of collaborative projects commissioned by Adobe, Inc. and Brill to develop extensive polytonic Greek typefaces. The two Adobe typefaces can be seen as extension of previous research for the Garamond Premier Pro family (2005), and concludes a research theme started in 1998 with work for Adobe’s Minion Pro Greek. These typefaces together define the state of the art for text-intensive Greek typesetting for wide character set texts (from classical texts, to poetry, to essays, to prose). They serve both as exemplar for other developers, and as vehicles for developing the potential of Greek text typography, for example with the parallel inclusion of monotonic and polytonic characters, detailed localised punctuation options, fluid handling of case-conversion issues, and innovative options such as accented small caps (originally requested by bibliographers, and subsequently rolled out to a general user base). The Brill typeface (for the established academic publisher) has an exceptionally wide character set to cover several academic disciplines, and is intended to differentiate sufficiently from its partner Latin typeface, while maintaining a clear texture in both offset and low-resolution print-on-demand reproduction. This work involved substantial amounts of testing and modifying the design, especially of diacritics, to maintain clarity the readability of unfamiliar words. All together these typefaces form a study in how Greek typesetting meets contemporary typographic requirements, while resonating with historically accurate styles, where these are present. Significant research in printing archives helped to identify appropriate styles, as well as originate variants that are coherent stylistically, even when historical equivalents were absent.

Polymer therapeutics designed for a combination therapy of hormone-dependent cancer

Designer drug: A polymer therapeutic was designed for a combination therapy of breast cancer. N-(2-Hydroxypropyl)methacrylamide was used as the model polymer platform to prepare a unimolecular polymer conjugate (see picture, radius of gyration: 12.8 nm) that combines an endocrine (the aromatase inhibitor aminoglutethimide, blue) and a chemotherapeutic agent (the anthraxcycline antibiotic doxorubicin, red).

HPMA copolymer-aminoglutethimide conjugates inhibit aromatase in MCF-7 cell lines

N-(2-Hydroxypropyl)methacrylamide (HPMA) copolymer–doxorubicin (Dox) has already shown clinical activity in breast cancer patients. Moreover, we have recently found that an HPMA conjugate containing a combination of both Dox and the aromatase inhibitor aminoglutethimide (AGM) shows significantly increased anti-tumour activity in vitro. To better understand the mechanism of action of HPMA copolymer–AGM conjugates several models were used here to investigate their effect on cell growth and aromatase inhibition. Cytotoxicity of HPMA copolymer conjugates containing AGM, Dox and also the combination AGM–Dox was determined by MTT assay in MCF-7 and MCF-7ca cells. Androstenedione (5 × 10− 8 M) stimulates the growth of MCF-7ca cells. Both free AGM and polymer-bound AGM (0.2–0.4 mg/ml) were shown to block this mitogenic activity. When MCF-7ca cells were incubated [3H]androstenedione both AGM and HPMA copolymer–GFLG–AGM (0.2 mg/ml AGM-equiv.) showed the ability to inhibit aromatase. Although, free AGM was able to inhibit isolated human placental microsomal aromatase in a concentration dependent manner, polymer-bound AGM was not, suggesting that drug release is essential for activity of the conjugate. HPMA copolymer conjugates containing aromatase inhibitors have potential for the treatment of hormone-dependant cancers, and it would be particularly interesting to explore further as potential therapies in post-menopausal women as components of combination therapy.