Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis

Variability in the strength of the stratospheric Lagrangian mean meridional or Brewer-Dobson circulation and horizontal mixing into the tropics over the past three decades are examined using observations of stratospheric mean age of air and ozone. We use a simple representation of the stratosphere, the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, guided by mean meridional circulation and horizontal mixing changes in several reanalyses data sets and chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations, to help elucidate reasons for the observed changes in stratospheric mean age and ozone. We find that the TLP model is able to accurately simulate multiyear variability in ozone following recent major volcanic eruptions and the early 2000s sea surface temperature changes, as well as the lasting impact on mean age of relatively short-term circulation perturbations. We also find that the best quantitative agreement with the observed mean age and ozone trends over the past three decades is found assuming a small strengthening of the mean circulation in the lower stratosphere, a moderate weakening of the mean circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere, and a moderate increase in the horizontal mixing into the tropics. The mean age trends are strongly sensitive to trends in the horizontal mixing into the tropics, and the uncertainty in the mixing trends causes uncertainty in the mean circulation trends. Comparisons of the mean circulation and mixing changes suggested by the measurements with those from a recent suite of CCM runs reveal significant differences that may have important implications on the accurate simulation of future stratospheric climate.

Association between FTO variant and change in body weight and its interaction with dietary factors: the DiOGenes study

Although FTO is an established obesity-susceptibility locus, it remains unknown whether it influences weight change in adult life and whether diet attenuates this association. Therefore, we investigated the association of FTO-rs9939609 with changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) during 6.8 years follow-up in a large-scale prospective study and examined whether these associations were modified by dietary energy percentage from fat, protein, carbohydrate, or glycemic index (GI). This study comprised data from five countries of European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and was designed as a case-cohort study for weight gain. Analyses included 11,091 individuals, of whom 5,584 were cases (age (SD), 47.6 (7.5) years), defined as those with the greatest unexplained annual weight gain during follow-up and 5,507 were noncases (48.0 (7.3) years), who were compared in our case-noncase (CNC) analyses. Furthermore, 6,566 individuals (47.9 (7.3) years) selected from the total sample (all noncases and 1,059 cases) formed the random subcohort (RSC), used for continuous trait analyses. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in the models. In the RSC-analyses, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with BMI (β (SE), 0.17 (0.08) kg·m(-2)/allele; P = 0.034) and WC (0.47 (0.21) cm/allele; P = 0.026) at baseline, but not with weight change (5.55 (12.5) g·year(-1)/allele; P = 0.66) during follow up. In the CNC-analysis, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with increased risk of being a weight-gainer (OR: 1.1; P = 0.045). We observed no interaction between FTO-rs9939609 and dietary fat, protein and carbohydrate, and GI on BMI and WC at baseline or on change in weight and WC. FTO-rs9939609 is associated with BMI and WC at baseline, but association with weight gain is weak and only observed for extreme gain. Dietary factors did not influence the associations.

Asymmetric output gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: evidence for the US and the UK

A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark-up pricing models, that is, whether the mark-up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price-output responses in the UK are asymmetric.

The diffusion of grassroots innovations for sustainability in Italy and Great Britain: an exploratory spatial data analysis

Little research so far has been devoted to understanding the diffusion of grassroots innovation for sustainability across space. This paper explores and compares the spatial diffusion of two networks of grassroots innovations, the Transition Towns Network (TTN) and Gruppi di Acquisto Solidale (Solidarity Purchasing Groups – GAS), in Great Britain and Italy. Spatio-temporal diffusion data were mined from available datasets, and patterns of diffusion were uncovered through an exploratory data analysis. The analysis shows that GAS and TTN diffusion in Italy and Great Britain is spatially structured, and that the spatial structure has changed over time. TTN has diffused differently in Great Britain and Italy, while GAS and TTN have diffused similarly in central Italy. The uneven diffusion of these grassroots networks on the one hand challenges current narratives on the momentum of grassroots innovations, but on the other highlights important issues in the geography of grassroots innovations for sustainability, such as cross-movement transfers and collaborations, institutional thickness, and interplay of different proximities in grassroots innovation diffusion.